The Russian war on Ukraine was like a great thunderbolt of electricity to recharge both NATO, which French President Emmanuel Macron had declared brain dead just a few years ago, as well as revitalizing the G7, a relic of the 1970s, to the bloc of ten leading democracies. , where Asian and European partners of the United States combined to impose severe sanctions on the Kremlin.

Writer Nicholas Gvosdev - in a report in the newspaper "The National Interest" - says that this new moment of ECT will not last, and the focus of American efforts to move forward should not be focused on correcting the mistakes of the nineties, but should be focused on Shaping a hub for the emerging world in the mid-21st century.

The writer explained that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move against his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, which was preceded by the Covid-19 pandemic, “pushed the West to confront the vulnerabilities of over-reliance on supply chains for the most important raw materials and final components that pass through the two largest authoritarian countries in the world, China and Russia".

He spoke of an opportunity that would allow domestic audiences in North America, Europe and East Asia to pay higher costs to redirect key economic links away from Moscow and Beijing and invest in next-generation technologies, especially energy and pharmaceutical solutions, and food production and manufacturing, and saw that this would lead to the upgrading of existing US alliances. From being primarily about military defense to a broader and expanded definition of security that includes not only safety from armed attack, but also enhanced protection for the climate, health, and the economy.

He noted that during the 1980s, the United States could take advantage of its partners' technological prowess, and their economic vitality, to add its own capabilities to encircle and contain the Soviet Union.

Just a few years ago, the European Union was intent on pursuing closer economic integration with China, while the United States' withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership was causing key Indian and Asian partners to hedge their relationship with Washington.

To balance peacefully with the rise of China, the United States needs to remake a democratic society that is not only based on shared values ​​and geopolitics, but is also able to offer clear and tangible benefits to its members, and it must do so before old habits return again. Whether it is a return to over-reliance on low-cost Russian energy or the costs of redirecting supply chains outside the Chinese manufacturing hub.

The writer considered that the Ukrainian crisis showed the incentive to take immediate action, as it showed the possibility of a long-term decline as the conflict continues and costs rise in the short term.

US financial power

On the other hand, the writer mentioned that the Russian war may be a prominent sign of the American financial deterrence and coercion tools;

Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia has been integrated into the US-led global economic system, including reaping the benefits of the dollar as the de facto global reserve currency and an expression of the strength and reliability of the US financial system.

Over the past period, the suggestion that US financial power could impose sufficient sanctions, along with arms deliveries, to force a change in Russian actions in Ukraine has been tested. A series of international public finances was offered not out of altruism, but as a way to project American power.

The writer said that Russia may have to pay a heavy first price, but the end result is that China and some other middle powers that are not yet committed to an American-led democratic society may begin to hedge their bets;

Continuing to use the US dollar for its convenience and low cost, while creating alternative pivot mechanisms as needed, noted that when a number of old US partners consider increasing the use of the renminbi (RMB), this indicates that they wish to keep all options open.

He noted that the Ukraine crisis demonstrated that the strong consensus against the Russian war by North America, Europe, and East Asia does not extend to other important parts of the world, an environment in which the United States will need to move forward: a transformative agenda to take on previous partnerships and practice a tighter and cohesive society that does not. It exercises not only deterrence against China and whatever level of power Russia maintains, but also works to attract “neutrals” among the middle powers to align more closely with the United States than Beijing. This will require sustained action across multiple administrations, and will require a stable bipartisan consensus on That this is in the national interests of the United States, and Ukraine has given Washington an opportunity to strengthen and expand American global leadership for the rest of this century, and finally, is the national security and the American political system up to the challenge?