They threaten to ignite a new civil war

Warlords in Afghanistan prepare to return

  • Some analysts warn of the possibility of a repetition of horrific events such as the 11th of September if the parties in Afghanistan reach a solution.

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  • Dostum was accused in 2016 of kidnapping, raping and torturing his enemies.

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  • Pressure is mounting on Biden to recognize the Taliban movement

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Warlords, power brokers, and leaders of ethnic groups, who fled Afghanistan last year prior to the Taliban’s victory over the Kabul government, threaten to spark civil war if the Taliban does not begin negotiating with them for their return to the homeland and their restoration of their authority as an alternative to rule.” Taliban” who holds the reins of power in the country.

This group, which led to the destruction of Afghanistan in the nineties of the last century, and worked to break it up after that, will return.

Other than that, this seems an appropriate time for the warlords, given the miserable situation in Afghanistan under the rule of the "Taliban" since last August.

The return of the old guard

The moment of the return of the old guard came last May, when 40 people, supporters of the return of the warlords, gathered in the Turkish capital, Ankara, to meet the Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum and his men.

Like other Afghan warlords, Dostum used the wealth he had accumulated during the 20 years of the American presence in Afghanistan to amass his network of followers.

During this period, Dostum supported reconstruction efforts funded by the United States and its allies, encouraged women's education, and sent thousands of Afghan students to study abroad.

A new civil war

But the Ankara meeting had a lot of audience.

Among them is Ahmed Walid Massoud, uncle of Ahmed Massoud, head of the National Resistance Front, and one of the few figures in the Afghan political elite who has not been tainted by accusations of corruption and atrocities.

His late father, General Ahmed Shah Massoud, was famous for preventing the Taliban from taking full control of Afghanistan before the Taliban government was overthrown in 2001. The participants said in a statement that they had formed the "Supreme Council of National Resistance" to demand that the Taliban negotiate their return. To Afghanistan to participate in the government, otherwise the "Taliban" will face trouble.

"Afghanistan will experience a civil war once again," Dostum's spokesman said threateningly.

The Afghan people know what this means. The majority of their 38 million people have lived most of their lives in the midst of this war.

Warlords and their henchmen were a part of this war, which plagued Afghanistan for more than four decades, until this people felt tired and began to yearn for peace.

And now the same warlords are back.

Warlords are not loyal

Of course, these people who make up the new resistance are not loyal to the people, as Dostum, for example, was accused in 2016 of kidnapping, raping, and torturing his enemies.

In 2001, he was accused of arresting Taliban militants and locking them in a container until they suffocated.

When he was Afghanistan's vice president, Ashraf Ghani, his militants would bully the streets of Kabul as a show of force.

Among the participants in the Ankara meeting, Atta Muhammad Nur, who had his own army when he ruled one of the Afghan provinces considered the breadbasket of Afghanistan, appointed his son as his successor.

The meeting was also attended by leaders of the ethnic Hazara group, ex-combatants, former members of the Afghan government, as well as former warlords.

Some of the women participated in the meeting as well, according to an advisor via the Zoom application on the Internet.

Nearly a year into the war, and following the withdrawal of US forces, the return of political and ethnic leaders with their own armies adds fuel to the already combustible scene, and fuels fears that Afghanistan could be embroiled in fierce battles for power and territory.

The ethnic mosaic in Afghanistan is broken, as armed groups in the north are fighting to oust the Taliban, given that warlords assure them that they will enjoy significant popular and Western support.

History repeats itself

Given the state of starvation suffered by millions in Afghanistan, and the deteriorating economy as a result of US economic sanctions, it seems that several factors are on the side of the warlords, not the least of which is the Taliban's failure to form an effective national government.

But amid the drumbeat of the civil war, some analysts warn that history is repeating itself with other atrocities such as the September 11 attacks, in addition to the joining of dozens of anti-Western terrorist groups to the Taliban.

This disjointed scene seems to give the group of warlords breathing space for their comeback.

Dostum's spokesman, who declined to be named, said that the participants in the Ankara meeting demanded participation in the "Taliban" government, which is currently formed mostly from Sunni Pashtuns, and that all members of the government are men.

Anthropologist Omar Sharifi, who is a professor at the American University of Afghanistan, said this warlord's request is not out of the question.

They have proven that they are able to adapt with time and circumstances, as they moved from armed struggle to the democratic system, and established their influence, power, and wealth.

Sharifi said it was the Taliban's mistakes that made warlords look attractive.

The Taliban came to power for the first time in the period between 1992-1996, after the defeat of the Soviet Union in 1989, and the warlords' destruction of each other.

The Taliban government was greeted with tears and joys, which did not last long, because Taliban rule was very harsh.

The largest source of drugs

Given the emergence of humanitarian crises in Afghanistan, pressure is mounting on US President Joe Biden to recognize the "Taliban" movement, which is considered the largest source of drugs, and which contains dozens of terrorists in its highest ranks.

Many commentators have suggested eliminating the Taliban's isolation without diplomatic recognition.

But so far, the Taliban movement remains isolated abroad and at home.

We can only wait for what the warlords can do, as the United States and the international coalition have fought for 20 years, they have no intention of returning to the conflict in Afghanistan.

The countries neighboring Afghanistan do not want to fund or arm the resistance groups, and they feel comfortable that the conflict on their borders has ended, and they hope that the Afghan parties will be able to coexist, even if this is not easy with the “Taliban.”

Lim O'Donnell is a writer for Foreign Policy.

Successive Afghan governments failed

The New York-based researcher who advised the former Afghan government on security issues, Ali Muhammad Ali, sees the future return of warlords as evidence of the failure of successive Afghan governments, and their Western backers, to create permanent government institutions.

He said, "The international community is inefficient and incoherent, and it must work together because Afghanistan's problems will not remain within it." Efficiently, without creating such capabilities, the state will face the risk of disintegration and the possibility of becoming a hotbed of terrorism.

“The lack of strong institutions can help the emergence of not only warlords and opponents of the (Taliban) but other groups, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, that will fill the void by providing judicial services and other things to the Afghan people,” Ali said.

This is what happened in Iraq, and it will happen in Afghanistan if the current situation becomes normal in the country.”

The moment of the return of the old guard came last May, when 40 people, supporters of the return of the warlords, gathered in the Turkish capital, Ankara, to meet the Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum and his men.

The ethnic mosaic of Afghanistan is shattered, with armed groups in the north fighting to oust the Taliban as warlords assure them that they will enjoy significant popular and Western support.

Amid the drumbeat of the civil war, some analysts warn that history is repeating itself with other atrocities such as the September 11 attacks, in addition to the joining of dozens of anti-Western terrorist groups to the Taliban.

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