If Moscow "ordered", would Belarusian forces be involved in Russia's war against Ukraine?

Kiev

- Since the beginning of the Russian war, Russia has used the lands of neighboring Belarus to launch and incursion into Ukraine, from which it launched missiles and launched many air strikes on targets in various central and western regions of the country.

To this day, Belarusian support is mainly limited to providing land and airports only, but today's talk in Ukraine revolves around the possibility of Minsk directly engaging in the war and involving its forces in "Putin's war", as the Ukrainians describe it.

A talk supported by the fact that Belarus is summoning young men to service, and announced a few days ago the launch of “military exercises” on the entire southern border with Ukraine, and extended them until July 9, according to a scenario similar to “joint exercises” that paved the way for the deployment of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on those areas. The border before the start of the war on February 24.

This is in addition to Putin's pledge to modernize the Belarusian Air Force, his intention to deploy strategic and other "Iskander-M" missile platforms on Belarusian soil, and his recent speech - after a visit to Minsk - about "Western sanctions accelerating the process of unifying the two countries."

Russian and Belarusian forces in joint exercises last February (French)

Is the invasion scenario repeated?

Although the main battles are focused on the eastern and southern fronts of Ukraine, the specter of the invasion returned to Kyiv and the rest of northern Ukraine, months after the withdrawal of Russian forces from it, but this time with Belarusian hands and forces.

Perhaps the rationale of these fears is the reason why Kyiv has announced the strengthening of the country’s defenses on the entire northern border, and the formation of barriers that prevent civilians from approaching them, especially in the densely forested areas that are widespread in the north of the country. Possible Belarusian invasion.

Indeed, the Ukrainian intelligence announced that 7 battalions of the Belarusian armed forces are deployed (in the framework of exercises) on the border with Ukraine, and that - from a military point of view - the threat of the Belarusian army invading the territory of Ukraine remains.

False promotion of other goals

But the Ukrainian intelligence excludes this scenario at the moment, because "these battalions are not yet ready for a large-scale incursion, and the goal of their continuous movements is to draw attention from the eastern fronts (Kharkiv region and Donbass region)," she says.

According to the Center for Combating Disinformation in the Ministry of Defense, "Russian promoters have increased the number of false news and reports about the readiness of Belarusian forces to attack Ukraine with the aim of creating panic inside the country and destabilizing the internal situation."

Indeed, Oleksiy Aristovich, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, mocks the "boring matter" altogether, stressing that "Belarus is completely transparent with respect to Ukrainian intelligence," as he put it.

Only sabotage and reconnaissance groups

For its part, the Ukrainian General Staff does not rule out that Belarus will send "sabotage reconnaissance groups" to Ukraine, and therefore calls for strengthening security measures and tightening inspections again at the entrances and exits of cities and other residential communities.

General Sergei Krivonos, former deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, believes that "Belarusian forces may engage with their Russian counterparts in the attack if the latter decides to repeat the attempt, but they will not do so independently because they simply cannot."

He adds, "The situation of Belarusians is different from the Russians when it comes to Ukraine. They are closer to us, and with them we share social and other ties. I think that many of them will respond quickly if Lukashenko orders. They know that his decision is not in his hands, but rather comes from the Kremlin, which is rehabilitating officials in that country." ", According to him.

Preparation is underway without announcement

All this contradiction between the state's actions and the statements of its officials raises the question about the nature of the policy followed and the fact that it senses the danger coming from Belarus.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Sergey Bulba, head of the "White Legion" for military analysis, said, "Putin has complete control over Lukashenko, and we believe that he can use 3 brigades of special operations forces in Belarus because they are ready and constantly training with the Russians."

"The number of these forces in Belarus is more than 9 thousand people, and Lukashenko can also push the 120th Venetian Guard unit, and thus the strength of these forces ranges between 12 and 15 thousand," he added.

According to the expert, "These are numbers that call for preparedness, especially if they are partnering with Russian forces, and the preparedness is taking place, in my opinion, but without raising fears in society, as it was the case before the beginning of the war."