To analyse
The concern of the neighbors of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad
Russian navy ships based in Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad exclave, July 19, 2015. © VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP
Text by: Anastasia Becchio
7 mins
The war in Ukraine was at the heart of the NATO summit in Madrid.
In response to the Russian invasion, the Atlantic Alliance decided to reinforce its eastern flank.
In recent weeks, tension has risen in the Baltic countries around Kaliningrad.
The heavily militarized Russian exclave, wedged between Lithuania and Poland, is at the heart of a new showdown between the Kremlin and the European Union.
Advertising
Read more
Moscow has warned that Lithuania 's imposition
of restrictions on the supply of goods
from Kaliningrad will not go unanswered.
Denouncing a "
blockade
" and a "
violation of international laws
", Russian diplomacy multiplies the warnings.
Russia will take "
very severe economic measures
", warns the former Russian president and current vice-president of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev.
The head of the space agency, former ambassador to NATO, Dmitri Rogozin, goes further, believing that Lithuania “
not only shot itself in the foot, but also in the head
”.
Is the risk of military confrontation in this region real, as feared by the Baltic countries?
“
You should never rule anything out
,” warns Thibault Fouillet, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, even if, in the current state, “
it seems very unlikely
”.
First of all, there is the question of the force and means that Russia could deploy.
“
We can already see that Russia has great difficulties, that its military apparatus is heavily consumed by operations in Ukraine.
It is hard to see how she could carry out another operation in another place
”.
Russia, if it decides to attack Lithuania, should also expand its operation to neighboring countries, "
given the integration of the various states in the region, it will also have to carry out operations in Poland and in the other Baltic States
“, explains Thibault Fouillet.
Section 5
Unlike Ukraine, Lithuania, like its Baltic and Polish neighbours, is, in theory, protected by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
It stipulates that if a NATO country is the victim of an armed attack, each member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as directed against all members and will take the measures it deems necessary to come to the aid. to the country that is under attack.
Yet fear remains great in these states.
“
We can understand that they are worried
,” notes Cindy Régnier, FNRS doctoral student in international relations at the University of Liège.
“
The Baltic countries have been victims of cyberattacks and hybrid attacks for a few years.
They saw Georgia attacked and now Ukraine
”.
However, membership of the Atlantic bloc should work in favor of restraint.
"
Russia, even in its war with Ukraine, has always been careful not to spill over into Poland, given that there would be a potential war with NATO
"
,
explains Cindy Régnier, who expects more certainly to hybrid attacks on the part of Moscow, such as cyberattacks or operations of disinformation and destabilization, through, in particular, the Russian-speaking populations of these regions.
A French soldier takes part in an exercise as part of the NATO deployment to Poland and the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, at the Estonian military camp in Tapa near Rakvere on February 5, 2022. AFP - ALAIN JOCARD
“
The risk of a military confrontation unfortunately exists
”, analyzes for his part Youri Zverev, Russian military expert from the Federal Institute Emmanuel Kant, joined in Kaliningrad.
“
It is an objective reality, at a time of increasing strength of the forces facing each other, of great mutual distrust and of the interruption of all military contacts.
This is when accidental military incidents can occur
, ”he analyzes.
►To listen also: International guest - European defense: "There is an awareness that Europe can be threatened"
Feeling of insecurity
On the eve of the NATO summit in Madrid, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas publicly expressed concern over the Alliance's plans that would
de facto
give Russia time to wipe the Baltics off the map before a military replica.
The feeling of insecurity is reinforced by an increased militarization in recent years of the Kaliningrad exclave, which hosts surface-to-surface, surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles and Iskander ballistic missile systems, capable of carrying a nuclear charge.
As for the number of soldiers present on the spot, we only have estimates which vary from 9,000 to 20,000, underlines Cindy Régnier.
Even if the Russian military presence in Kaliningrad is much lower than the 100,000 men deployed during the Cold War, “
the contingent present makes it possible to ensure security and protect the interests of the country
”, assures Yuri Zverev.
If the exclave of Kaliningrad is physically separated from Russian territory, it is separated from Belarus, Moscow's faithful ally, only by the Suwalki corridor.
This strip, on either side of the border between Poland and Lithuania, remains the weak link on NATO's eastern flank.
Various simulations have highlighted the weaknesses of NATO's armed forces in the event of a confrontation with Russian forces in the Baltic countries.
In 2016, the RAND Corporation, which advises the American army, had estimated that it would take Russia 36 to 60 hours to take the capitals of the Baltic States, recalls Cindy Régnier, "
that's also why the “NATO, in 2016, had sent troops in rotation in the Baltic, at the rate of three battalions in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and also in Poland
”.
The researcher points out that this simulation had also been criticized for not having taken into account the question of nuclear deterrence and the fact that NATO could attack on other flanks.
“
The scenario, as it was established, was based on the Russian capacities at the end of the operations in Crimea and in the Donbass, therefore overvalued, far from what we see of the current real capacities of the Russian army in Ukraine
“, also tempers Thibault Fouillet.
NATO strengthens in the East
Since 2014, the Baltic armies have increased in power.
Faced with the threat from Russia, the countries of the Alliance decided, in Madrid, to reinforce the military presence on the eastern flank of NATO, which will also increase the number of its forces to a high level of readiness 40,000 to more than 300,000 soldiers.
"
This is the most important overhaul of our collective defense since the Cold War
," said the secretary general of the organization Jens Stoltenberg.
These decisions are extremely irritating in Moscow.
"
The Madrid summit consolidates the direction of aggressive containment of Russia by the
Atlantic bloc," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov.
A feeling of a besieged citadel shared by Yuri Zubov: “
every action generates a counter-action
”, warns the Russian military expert.
“
Russia will be forced to retaliate to strengthen its security.
Moreover, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has declared that Russia will strengthen its Western Military District.
No one will benefit from this spiral and the security of the region will be greatly reduced.
Isolating Kaliningrad will not bring any good to European countries
”
.
From Ashkhabad, the Turkmen capital where he is traveling, the Russian president denounced the
“
imperial ambitions
”
of NATO which, according to him, seeks to affirm its
"
hegemony
"
via the Ukrainian conflict
.
The Atlantic Alliance and "
above all, the United States had long needed to have an external enemy around which they could unite their allies
", according to Vladimir Putin.
►Also listen: Lines of defense - Kaliningrad: a fragile Russian citadel in the heart of Europe
Newsletter
Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_EN
Russia
Lithuania
NATO
Defense
our selection
European Union