Political analyst Judith Bergman:
Russia's influence in Africa is steadily increasing
Putin seeks to increase Russia's influence in Africa.
Reuters
Russian forces monitor security in Central Africa during the 2020 elections. Getty
picture
When the United Nations General Assembly voted on March 2nd to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, 17 African countries abstained, eight countries did not vote at all, and only one country, Eritrea, voted against the draft resolution.
When Russia was suspended from the UN Human Rights Council on April 7, African countries were less willing to be against Russia, with nine African countries voting against Russia's suspension, while 24 abstained.
Journalist, lawyer and political analyst, Judith Bergman, said in an analysis published by the American Gatestone Institute, that African voting patterns in the United Nations indicate the growing Russian influence in Africa.
While the extent of Russia’s involvement in the continent is not comparable to that of China, Russia has nonetheless been deepening its influence on the African continent in recent years, especially when it comes to arms sales, and between 2015 and 2017, Russia entered into 19 partnership agreements with African countries, and largely focused on Russian arms sales, and supplying them with mercenaries.
Joseph Siegel, director of research at the Brookings Institution's Africa Center for Strategic Studies, says, "Unlike most major external partners, Russia does not invest significantly in traditional statecraft in Africa, for example, in economic and commercial investment, and in providing assistance the wish.
Instead, Russia relies on a series of disparate (often extralegal) measures to gain influence, such as mercenaries, arms-for-resource deals, opaque contracts, election interference, and disinformation.
According to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia was the largest supplier of arms to African countries between 2017 and 2021, with up to 44 percent of arms imports, followed by the United States with 17 percent, and then China with 10 percent.
The first Russia-Africa summit was held in Sochi in 2019, which was attended by 40 leaders of African countries.
The second Russia-Africa summit is scheduled to be held next fall.
the trade exchange
Bergman noted that although trade between Russia and African countries has doubled since 2015, reaching $20 billion annually, China remains Africa's largest trading partner, with trade volume between China and Africa reaching $254 billion in 2021. Russia's ultimate goals in Africa are those of China itself, which is to gain influence by making African states dependent on each other's services.
While China pursues its goals by offering investments and infrastructure in exchange for strategic access to vital natural resources and political influence, Russia is offering state-backed weapons and mercenaries known as PMCs for influence.
“In its Africa strategy, the Kremlin is primarily acting on a desire to thwart American policy goals, regardless of their substance,” said Federica Saini Vasanotti of the Brookings Institution.
With Africa as one of Russia's foreign policy priorities, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also seeking to create an African dependence on Moscow's military assets and access to African resources, targeting countries with fragile, but often rich, governments with important raw resources, such as oil and gold, Vasanotti said. Diamonds, uranium and manganese.
They also provide these governments with the ability to conduct counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations that are not constrained by human rights responsibilities.
In return, Russia seeks concessions for natural resources and important commercial contracts, or access to strategic locations, such as air bases or ports.
mercenaries
Russian mercenaries have spread to many African countries from Sudan to Mozambique, leaving behind evidence of human rights abuses.
The largest and most famous group of Russian mercenaries is the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of President Putin.
Although it appears to be a private company, “its management and operations are highly intertwined with the Russian military and intelligence services,” according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, so it should be seen as “an organization acting as a proxy for the Russian state and not a private company selling services in the market.” open ».
A report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in September 2020, stated that “Russia’s strategy is direct: It is to undermine American power and increase Moscow’s influence by using forces that are hidden from view, and whose existence can be denied, like private military companies, that can do everything, from providing security to foreign leaders. Even training, advice and assistance to partner security forces.”
Moscow's use of PMCs has increased significantly in recent years, reflecting lessons learned from previous deployments, a growing expansionist mindset and a desire for economic, geopolitical, and military gains.
PMCs are now playing a variety of roles to undermine American influence and support Russia's expansionist political, geographic, military, and economic interests.
In testimony before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on March 15, the commander of the US Africa Command, General Stephen Townsend, referred to Russian military companies, especially the Wagner Group, as having a “malign influence.”
"They don't follow anybody's rules," Townsend said.
They do what they want.
They install tyrannical rulers.
They are committing massive human rights violations.
I think this is bad for Africa's security and future prosperity.
They are present in Libya, and to a lesser extent in Sudan.
They run the Central African Republic.
They are now in Mali, and there are more than 1,000 Wagner elements in Mali now.”
"The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions that followed, are likely to motivate Russia to seek further engagement on the African continent in the coming years, and this also applies to China," he added.
This should be a reminder to the current US administration, and future administrations, that as long as Russia and China increase their involvement and reinforce their presence in Africa, the United States cannot turn a blind eye.
The United States cannot ignore Africa.
Africa's challenges, opportunities and security interests are inseparable from our opportunities and interests.
"Clearly our competitors see the rich potential of Africa," Townsend said.
Russia and China seek to convert soft power and real power investments into political influence, strategic reach, and military gains.
Unlike most of its major external partners, Russia does not invest much in traditional statecraft in Africa, for example, in economic and commercial investment, but rather in sending mercenaries and weapons.
According to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia was the largest supplier of arms to African countries between 2017 and 2021, accounting for 44 percent of arms imports, followed by the United States with 17 percent, and China with 10 percent.
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