LONDON

- For the second time in a row, the commander of the British Army, General Patrick Sanders, talks about the need to prepare for a direct confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), comparing the current days in the world to the days leading up to World War II.

Whenever a military commander speaks of the same weight as a British army commander, attention should be paid to what he says, especially since many British media reports revealed that his statements reflect an accurate assessment of the reality on the ground and not just an attempt to mobilize forces or internal mobilization.

In the early days of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, when Al-Jazeera Net was asking a number of British strategists about the possibility of a confrontation between Russia and NATO, most estimates ruled out this scenario.

But months after this war, which seems to have lasted more than many expected, a number of senior experts in international politics have changed their views a lot, and what was unlikely seems to be possible.

In this context, Al Jazeera Net asked a question: Are we on the verge of an imminent war between NATO and Russia?

On the Professor of International Relations at Oxford University, Professor Richard Kaplan, and Head of the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics (LSE), Professor Georges Fawaz, these were their expectations.

Professor Richard Kaplan: Direct war is both possible and unlikely (websites)

War is possible, but...

Professor Richard Kaplan, Professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford, distinguishes between the possibility of a confrontation between NATO and Russia deliberately or by accident.

"In both cases, direct war is certainly possible, although it is still somewhat unlikely," he says.

In his analysis of the behavior of NATO countries as well as Russia, the British professor believes that both sides are still keen to "avoid direct confrontation", warning at the same time that "the slide towards direct confrontation may happen quickly, and its consequences will be serious and dangerous for all parties."

The British academic says that this risk will increase if the Ukrainian war prolongs, and "currently there are no indications that this war has entered its final stages," adding that the West expects Russia to freeze its operations to gather its forces and strike hard again.

On the other hand, Ukraine still requests long-range missiles and heavy weapons from the West in order to stop Russia, "but even if Western weapons succeed in stopping the Russian advance, this will never mean the end of the war," Kaplan said.

The professor stressed that Putin's perception of profit and loss in this war is subject to change, "so that he does not have to withdraw from all Ukrainian lands in exchange for a pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, he is able to promote this matter as a victory for his military operation," explaining this matter "with the control of Putin is on the narrative at home and is easily able to sell his followers the image of the strong and the victorious.


Putin will not back down

Professor Fawaz Gerges, Head of International Relations at the London School of Economics, agrees with Professor Richard Kaplan in analyzing the behavior of NATO and Russia, and that they do not seek direct confrontation.

Gerges warns that major wars do not always occur on purpose, "sometimes direct confrontations occur as a result of indirect escalation and unintended incidents."

Among the indirect aspects of escalation is “the West’s insistence on arming Ukraine with qualitative weapons,” which “leads the Russian leadership to the conviction that the West wants to humiliate it and turn Ukraine into a quagmire for the Russian army, and then Russia will expand the area of ​​confrontation,” according to the British academic.

Perhaps the most dangerous scenario that could occur is for the Russian leadership to take a decision to escalate the strategic, explained by Professor Gerges as "access to Russia's use of its strategic weapons, ranging from biological weapons to nuclear weapons."

Professor Fawaz Gerges: The Western camp is divided because of the difficult economic repercussions of the war on Ukraine (Al-Jazeera)

Putin is determined, and the West is divided

By following the political and security behavior of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Gerges asserts that "he will not back down unless most of the goals he set for this process are achieved, the first of which is controlling the east and least of all obtaining guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO," calling on Western countries to deal with this logic.

The expert in international relations believes that the Western camp is not on the heart of one man, "there is the camp of doves represented by Germany and France, and the camp of hawks represented by Britain and the United States, and there are increasing divisions within the Western camp due to the economic repercussions of this crisis."

According to a document of the European Council on Foreign Relations, seen by Professor Fawaz Gerges, "most Europeans believe that Russia is mistaken in its war on Ukraine, but they support Ukraine's abandonment of the eastern region in exchange for a cessation of war."

The reason, according to the spokesman, is that "the purchasing power of the European citizen has been affected by this war, the longer it continues, the more difficult the crisis will become in Western countries."