Working with Russia and China
Iran is able to live without the nuclear agreement at all
Grossi warned that the steps to dismantle the cameras that monitor Iran's enrichment activities constitute a "fatal blow" to efforts to restore the nuclear agreement.
Reuters
Negotiations aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear agreement have been between little progress and stalling.
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On June 10, the Director-General of the Atomic Energy Organization, Rafael Mariano Grossi, warned that recent steps taken by Iran in its nuclear program could constitute a "fatal blow" to efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement. This agreement was suspended when the president withdrew from it. The former American, Donald Trump, after it was signed by Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council in addition to Germany.
Despite the pledges made by US President Joe Biden during his 2020 election campaign, he did not find the appropriate way to return the United States to an official participation in the agreement, and the Iranian moves that it has made in recent months make it unlikely that this agreement can return. To its original goal, which is to control Iran's nuclear activities and ease sanctions against Iran.
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For several months, negotiations to revive the agreement and curb Iran's nuclear development ranged from simple diplomatic progress to persistent stalling.
But the situation completely worsened with the issuance of Iran's decision to shut down 27 cameras that were installed to monitor the process of uranium enrichment activities under the terms of the 2015 agreement, known as the "Joint and Comprehensive Plan of Action."
This reduced the confidence of the International Energy Organization in Vienna that the international community could successfully conclude this process.
Three factors
This frustrating prospect will provoke a host of responses from parties who viewed the agreement as mere tactics to delay an inevitable challenge with Iran, as well as from other parties who would struggle if the agreement were handled differently to keep it alive.
There are three factors that can help us understand how we got to this point: US policy, Iranian calculations, and the climate of geopolitical changes.
There are many in the United States who are now asking: "Why didn't the Biden administration have a better strategy for the United States' return to the Iran nuclear agreement?"
And unlike the Paris climate agreement, where President Biden easily declared Trump's policy repealed, the Biden team appears to have felt compelled to push for a better deal than the original, and endure the pain of how to lift sanctions.
Pressure from Republicans and Democrats, who had long been skeptical of the agreement, led to a drawn-out policy formulation, with new coordination with European allies on nuclear and non-nuclear concerns that could be seen as complicating the core diplomatic task of the Iran nuclear agreement.
But the prediction that the United States would want to ease its commitment to the Middle East, and in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to remove the Iranian problem from the center stage was not correct, although it appears to be so outside the United States.
Backfire
The chief expert in the Biden administration, Rob Miley, also admitted, for strong reasons, that the policy of "maximum pressure" pursued by the Trump administration had backfired, as Biden's negotiating team became facing a difficult problem that had to be overcome, and the shift to full participation For the United States in the negotiations was not an option.
It is even difficult to guess the Iranian part of the story.
Did the Iranian leaders want to kill the entire agreement, or did they believe that showing their defiance of Washington would win more concessions from America during the negotiations?
concessions
Given the centralized powers of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and his mistrust of international institutions, Iran might have hoped for sanctions concessions, but would be willing to live with the absolute absence of the nuclear agreement.
Whether that means a race to the finish line where a full nuclear weapon is obtained, or less, is still unknown.
Does Iran see that the regional climate is appropriate for its interests?
Could such an opinion be a major factor in its actions regarding the nuclear file?
Major change in the region:
The main change in the region was the improvement of relations between the Arabs and Israel, which angered Iran, and this improvement in relations came as a result of the Arab countries feeling threatened by Iran more than any other factor.
The security establishment in Iran considered that this change in the region is not in its interest, but rather a threat to it.
However, if these agreements between the Arab countries and Israel will reduce American influence in the region, because these countries will bear a greater responsibility in the region, then Iran will still consider itself a winner.
As for Iran’s proxies in the Middle East, the situation has become more chaotic because Lebanon is a semi-collapsed state and is no longer a country that can be trusted, and Hezbollah’s diminishing influence in the Lebanese parliament is considered a blow to Iran, but Iran can benefit from its influence in Lebanese territory as a launching pad for its unmanned aerial vehicles (Drones) as well as its missiles towards Israel.
Likewise, the Iranian presence in Syria will be a benefit to it, but Iran's relationship with the Arabs and the Kurds is not easy at all.
Accordingly, the new geopolitics can convince Iran that it can live without a nuclear labor agreement, working with Russia and China to prevent any punitive measures against it, and obtaining small victories in the countries in which it has great influence.
As for the rest of the region, and the Western powers, the world without the Iranian nuclear agreement would be a dangerous world.
Perhaps strengthening cooperation between these countries that fear Iran would be a positive development, but it is not sufficient to achieve regional security.
Elaine Lipson is director of the International Security Program at George Mason University
Despite the pledges made by President Joe Biden, during his 2020 election campaign, he did not find the appropriate way to return the United States to formal participation in the agreement, and the Iranian moves it has made in recent months make it unlikely that this agreement can return to its goal. the original.
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