The global economic response to the Russian war was enormous, as the assets of Russia’s most famous “oligarchs” were confiscated, the country’s financial companies were excluded from the international banking system, and more than a third of the war fund built by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin was frozen due to sanctions, and it joined Asian countries into the economic battle.

But more than 4 months after the outbreak of the war, questions have been raised about whether these sanctions are really effective.

In a report published in the British "Spectator" magazine, writer Kate Andrews said that Russia is struggling to export goods to Ukraine's allies, but as Putin expected, Europe has not found any viable alternative to Russian energy supplies, so it continues to buy from Moscow.

According to the author, the Russian Finance Ministry was expecting an additional income of $9.6 billion in April alone, thanks to higher energy prices, and if those prices remain high, Putin is on his way to earning more money from oil and gas this year than ever before. .

Currently, Moscow earns about $800 million a day, a large part of which is spent in order to stimulate the country's economy, and if the goal of the sanctions is to destroy the Russian economy and the war machine, it is difficult to describe them as successful.

The writer shows that when (US President Joe) Biden pledged a retaliatory economic response against Russia last February, he provided a one-month deadline to see the effects of the sanctions.

And when that month ended, he had to change his approach, saying, "Sanctions have never deterred Russian aggression. So we will follow the same approach for the remainder of this whole year, and that will stop it."

In other words - according to the writer - Biden prepared for a long economic match, and his strategy no longer revolves around a financial strike, but rather is to hit the Kremlin coffers (and the pockets of the Russian people) in the hope that Putin will eventually surrender.

It is noteworthy that the United States, Britain, Canada and Japan announced that they would ban imports of Russian gold, as part of efforts to tighten sanctions on Moscow and cut off funding for its war on Ukraine, while France only declared its support.

What about neutral countries?

Interstate competition rages over who can proceed with the sanctions regimes, as London - through emergency legislation - ensured that every sanction against the Russian "oligarchy" introduced by the US or the EU would be immediately adopted as British policy.

The writer believes that there are major economic powers that still claim to be neutral, China did not have any concerns about buying Russian oil at a cheap price, which is estimated at about $ 35 (per barrel), which is less expensive than Brent crude, and India’s requests for Russian crude also increased for the two months. In the past two years, a price drop has tempted Narendra Modi to abandon the solidarity he was showing to Ukraine at the start of the crisis.

And it's not just that "neutral" countries are buying up Russia's energy resources. Although German Chancellor Olaf Schulz has pledged to suspend certification of Nordstream 2, he is not convinced that his country is ready to tackle its addiction to Russian energy overnight.

So far, Berlin pays Russia $220 million a day for oil and gas supplies, more than a quarter of the Kremlin's daily energy income.

Did the sanctions work?

Some analysts are now beginning to argue that the Western sanctions strategy has failed due to massive gas supplies running through Germany, which will allow Putin to finance his war for as long as possible, and the European Union's energy sanctions so far carefully exclude any serious crackdown on incoming Russian gas. to the alliance.

Notably, some of parliament's more hawkish ministers are not convinced that sanctions could have a huge impact if Germany decides to stop buying Russian gas.

The writer considers that the time may have already run out for the West to use economic sanctions to paralyze the Russian war machine, indicating that if Europe had moved faster and imposed sanctions on the energy sector since the beginning of the conflict, it would have succeeded in paralyzing the Russian economy, but it moved at a slow pace, which contributed to the multiplication of The gap between Russia's exports and imports 3 times, amounting to more than 100 billion dollars in the first five months of this year.

It currently appears that Russia is gradually reducing gas supplies to Europe in an effort to prevent countries from hoarding in the colder months, when Putin wants to be able to threaten to shut down the pipelines altogether.

Last week, Italy and Slovakia reported receiving less than half of their normal supplies, and with such large cash reserves, Putin could shut down all the pipelines, which raises nagging questions as: What if the sanctions and windfall gains mean that Europe may soon need gas? The Russian is much more than the Kremlin needs European cash?

And the Swiss newspaper Lotan said in a report last month that “those who expected the collapse of the Russian economy will be disappointed,” and this was evidenced by the recovery of the ruble (the Russian local currency) after the central bank took the necessary measures, which included a sharp interest rate hike to make the ruble more attractive, Strict exchange controls were imposed to prevent the demand for foreign currency.

The newspaper also talked about the gradual replacement of imports by local production, pending an improvement in the situation, after sanctions reduced imports without disrupting exports.

She also said, "In fact, the trade balance surplus has increased since the volume of imports declined. Sanctions are certainly creating problems for the settlement of payments and foreign investment, but these are the concerns of the wealthy and not signs of the collapse of the economy."

"Now that the Europeans seem determined to reduce imports of raw materials, things will get more complicated without resulting in an economic collapse," she added.

repercussions and effects

While the Kremlin makes about $1 billion every day, economic sanctions have some ramifications.

In Britain, energy bills are up 54 percent, and the West is taking a serious economic toll from rising energy costs, without dealing a devastating blow to the Russian economy.

But this does not mean that economic sanctions have had little effect.

Indeed, the Russian military is struggling to re-equip the high-tech artillery, including the radar and tracking equipment it needs to launch the attacks.

While Russian forces still have a large stockpile of conventional weapons, the UK estimates that the Kremlin has lost a third of the ground forces deployed in Ukraine, and that includes thousands of military vehicles that Putin will eventually struggle to resupply.

The writer believes that the end justifies the means, and it is certain that Putin has been paying huge sums of money to businessmen over the years to smuggle certain technologies such as memory chips, which are needed for military operations, through US export controls towards the Kremlin, but the circumvention of Western sanctions has become more complex and more dangerous.

The writer says that although Putin has the money to ensure the viability of his country's economy for some time, Russians are increasingly feeling as if they have been excluded from the global economy

Despite the appreciation of the ruble to pre-war levels, the volume of commercial trades is declining, since many countries and companies do not accept the ruble at the present time, and the inflation rate in Russia reached 17% throughout the year, and it rose to its highest level in 20 years thanks to the sanctions largely international.

Although Putin has the money to ensure the continuity of his country's economy for some time, Russians are increasingly feeling as if they have been excluded from the global economy, and Moscow will not be able to avoid a massive economic recession, with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasting that the Russian economy will shrink by 10% This year, at least 4% next year, a much worse forecast than any European country.

But the unprecedented flow of gas money is giving Putin more leverage over a heavily sanctioned country, and he is using it to try to convince “neutral” countries that he is heading for victory as the West heads toward a cost-of-living crisis from which its elected leaders may find it difficult to recover.

The writer reveals that, in fact, the sanctions were not part of a long-term strategy, but rather an automatic response - almost - from governments and international companies, and their repercussions on the West were not properly dealt with, and there are already signs of Germany's hesitation and failure to deliver the weapons that were promised by Ukraine.

She concludes by saying that it is not really surprising that Western countries that benefit from a certain level of their energy independence, such as the United States, are more optimistic about unspecified bans, while Schultz seems to hope that the conflict will be over by winter, stressing that they should all Dealing with the impact of sanctions extending far beyond the intended target.