American analyst Bobby Ghosh:
The political chaos in Iraq is another headache for Biden
Biden will not easily get rid of the repercussions of instability in Iraq.
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Al-Kadhimi (left) appears vulnerable to the overwhelming Iranian influence in Iraq.
AFP
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Iraq is facing a hot summer after the most popular politician withdrew his party from parliament, after failing to form a government.
But even as Baghdad prepares for months of turmoil on the streets, the broader world must prepare for the economic and security fallout.
The American writer and analyst, Bobby Ghosh, says that the most likely outcome of the leader Muqtada al-Sadr's decision to withdraw from the political process is the return of the violent protests that swept the country in late 2019 and early 2020. In fact, the expected turmoil will be more confusing, as Sadr's supporters - Those who did not participate in the previous protests are better organized than the leaderless group that represented the core of those protests, and they are even more angry.
In an analysis published by Bloomberg News Agency, Ghosh added that Sadr, who gained popularity in the last elections last fall, was frustrated in his efforts to form a ruling coalition, and he and his followers would feel that the political process had failed them, leaving the public square to be the first stage of a show of force. Often violent is the trait at which the chest excels.
He made his own name
Coming from a family of Shiite clerics who sacrificed their lives to oppose Saddam Hussein, he made his name in 2003 by forming a militia known as the "Mahdi Army" against the US-led coalition that toppled Saddam Hussein. Sadr's fighters were defeated, but his rhetoric The anti-American has never abated.
Finally, al-Sadr acted as a nationalist, opposing the malign influence of Iran, which has a Shiite majority, in Iraq's affairs.
Although al-Sadr formally dissolved the Mahdi Army in 2008 after entering electoral politics, many of his followers remained armed, organized, and dangerous, but the political groups who thwarted him in parliament, including his Iranian-backed rivals, have their own militias.
Shiites make up 60 percent of the Iraqi population, and the weak central government headed by Mustafa al-Kadhimi will avoid interfering in any internal conflict.
These are bleak signs for Iraqis who face the prospect of blood on their streets, and they are a bad omen for the global economy. At a time when oil prices are rising, it is clear that a prolonged instability in one of the largest producing countries will be the last thing anyone wants. nobody.
(And remember that the market is already suffering from a shortage of supplies from another Arab oil-producing country wracked with political chaos, Libya.)
Oil buyers can only hope that Al-Kadhimi will be able to secure the oil facilities and keep the supply lines running if sectarian fighting breaks out in the Shiite-dominated southern regions, which contain the majority of the country's oil reserves.
The administration of US President Joe Biden faces a double danger. It is clear that any loss of Iraqi supplies will undermine efforts to calm the oil market and reduce prices at gas stations before the midterm elections next fall.
What is no less important, is that al-Sadr's withdrawal will strengthen Iran's position at a sensitive geopolitical time when the US president is seeking at the same time to negotiate the revival of the nuclear agreement with Iran, in addition to reassuring the Arab countries neighboring Iraq that they have nothing to fear.
Iran is the beneficiary
And the political turmoil in Iraq will be beneficial to Iran, at least in the short term. According to Iraqi law, parliamentary seats ceded by al-Sadr now go to candidates who received the second largest number of votes.
In most cases, these were candidates from parties backed by Iran.
This bloc, known as the Coordination Framework, is now in the strongest position to form a coalition government.
This will mean the return of the premiership to Nuri al-Maliki, whose previous two terms in office, from 2006 to 2014, were characterized by obtaining an open license from Iran to deepen its influence in Iraqi affairs, especially in the security forces.
Iran has also supported a parallel network of Shiite militias, which it has used to attack US forces in Iraq and launch attacks using missiles and drones against Saudi Arabia.
limited success
Al-Kazemi, who is considered pro-Western, had limited success in curbing the militias;
It is likely that Maliki will not even attempt to do so, and instead will use the security forces to quell any uprising by Sadr's followers.
Ghosh concluded his analysis that weeks or even months may pass before a new government is formed, but Iran, in particular, is in no hurry to achieve this. If the nuclear negotiations fail, as is increasingly likely, Iran will have complete freedom to exploit Iraq, to stir up trouble for the states the United States and its allies in the Middle East.
And if a conflict between Shiites impedes the flow of Iraqi oil to world markets, that would be a perfect fit for Iran, as any rise in prices would boost its revenues from exports that are restricted by sanctions.
For the United States, there are no good results. The political chaos in Baghdad is just as bad as having a proxy government on behalf of Iran.
Al-Sadr and his followers will feel that the political process has failed them, leaving the public square to be the first stage of a show of force. The often violent protest is the trait in which Al-Sadr excels.
If the nuclear negotiations fail, as is increasingly likely, Iran will be free to exploit Iraq, to cause trouble for the United States and its allies in the Middle East.
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