When a popular revolution in the Philippines toppled the dictator Ferdinand Marcos 36 years ago, no one wanted to imagine that his son of the same name would one day return and enter the presidential palace from which his father, his family and their entourage fled to the United States, which has long supported his rule despite the atrocities he committed against his citizens.

Marcos "Junior", the only son of the late dictator, is set to officially take office as the country's president on Thursday, becoming the 17th president of the Philippines, succeeding controversial President Rodrigo Duterte, whose daughter Sarah was sworn in as the new vice president two weeks ago.

Junior "Bong-bong" won a landslide victory in the presidential elections that took place on May 9, defeating 9 other opponents by a large margin, and obtained 31 million votes, compared to 14 million for his nearest challenger, Leni Robredo, the outgoing Vice President Duterte.

Observers consider this victory a further setback for a nation once admired as one of Southeast Asia's few democracies, but which continues down the path of populism as Marcos Jr. succeeds Duterte, known for his blunt insults and his war on drugs that have left thousands of extrajudicial deaths.

The victory of Marcos, 64, shocked the Filipinos who lived through his father's rule, which they consider one of the darkest periods in the country's history, and the darkest and most corrupt. He was expelled to die in exile in Hawaii 3 years later at the age of 72.

What happened that produced the shocking state of a large segment of Filipinos who thought they had called the Marcos era forever?

sunset

Between sunset and then sunrise of the Marcos family, a political story whose chapters and details vary in parallel with the sunrise and sunset of the “Philippine Spring” and its popular revolution more than 3.5 decades ago, which may be tempting to compare the fate of the early “Filipino Spring” that finds no place in the memory of new generations. In the Philippines, with the "Arab Spring" whose presence is still fresh in the memory of witnesses, to anticipate the outcome.

Junior was eight years old when his father was elected president in 1965, of that Southeast Asian country of 110 million people for a term of 21 years, including 9 years of martial law, during which he brutally suppressed political opposition and killed thousands of his critics and opponents, and arrested dozens of Thousands and large numbers of them were tortured and sexually assaulted by soldiers in prisons.

After anti-Marcos politician Ninoy Aquino was murdered upon his return from exile in the United States, a huge opposition movement rallied around his widow, Corazon Aquino, who had stood against Marcos in a snap presidential election in 1986. When Marcos was declared the winner amid widespread electoral fraud, massive protests erupted culminating in The "people power" revolution was supported by the Catholic Church under the direction of Cardinal Jaime Sen.

Senior military officers also rebelled against Marcos and Filipinos poured into the streets to protect them.

The loyalist forces refused to fire on the crowd.

After 4 days of mass protests, Marcos fled to Hawaii and Corazon was elected president that same year.

The escape of the Marcos family and their entourage, with an astonishing stock of looted wealth, which amounted, according to the American media at the time, to 7.7 million dollars in cash and 4 million dollars in precious stones and jewelry, including a gold crown and 3 tiaras studded with diamonds.

But this was only a small part of the looted funds, estimated at millions of dollars.

In the following decades, Ferdinand Jr., and mother Imelda Marcos - famous for her thousands of expensive shoes - were subjected to criminal and civil fraud charges in the United States and accusations by the Philippine government that the couple and their entourage stole billions of dollars from the motherland, which they stashed in bank accounts in Switzerland and Hong Kong. , and tried to profit from secret investments in real estate in New York.

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Two years after Marcos' death, Imelda was allowed to return, and since then the family has made no secret of its plans to restore political power and influence and re-establish the so-called "legacy" of Marcos.

Junior was elected governor in 1992 in the northern province of Ilocos Sur, a stronghold of the family's popularity and influence, and became a senator in 2010. His sister, Amy, is a senator and former governor, and their 92-year-old mother was a four-term member of the House of Representatives.

During his presidency, President Duterte thanked the Marcos family repeatedly and publicly for supporting his candidacy in the 2016 presidential elections. Not only did he thank, but he rehabilitated the name of Marcos, a few months after taking office, and surprised the Filipinos by burying the remains of the dictator Marcos in the "Heroes of the Nation" cemetery in the Taguig suburb of the capital, Manila, with a ceremony Military honors shrouded in heightened security after the remains were removed from the United States in strict secrecy, and Duterte publicly floated the idea of ​​ending the search for his hidden wealth.

Marcos Jr. ran for Vice President in 2016 losing narrowly to Benigno "Nenoy" Aquino Jr., son of Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino Sr., his late son's arch rival, but Junior saw his defeat as a run-up to a presidential campaign in 2022.     

When he announced his candidacy for the recent presidential elections, human rights defenders and left-wing politicians quickly condemned his candidacy and vowed to campaign against him to thwart any attempt to revive his family's political standing.

A coalition against the return to power of the Marcos, known by its acronym Karma, said the bid to run for president was "a shameless display of disregard and contempt for the thousands of Filipinos who were murdered, disappeared, tortured, displaced and assaulted" during his father's rule.

How did he win?

In an attempt to answer the previous question, observers say his victory reflects frustration with previous administrations' failure to provide adequate and tangible reforms in the wake of the "people power" revolution that toppled Marcos Sr.

Others warn that Junior is very popular among many young people, and the family has support in Ilocos Norte, the traditional stronghold in the north of the country, while some analysts see his victory as a continuation of a populist wave that began with President Duterte.

As for betting on historical memory to prevent this victory, it failed, especially since more than 50% of the voters are between the ages of 18 and 41, which means that they do not remember the brutal rule of Marcos because they were either not born or too young to understand the mass arrests, torture and other violations in that The period, as academics point out, was not fully taught in schools.

Historical memories lost steam, and could have prevented another Marcos from returning to power in a tireless and systematic revisionist campaign successfully orchestrated by Marcos' team, using various social media platforms.

The effort, which was said to have been in the pipeline for a decade, led to an unprecedented landslide victory for Junior, whose family's affluence contributed to his lavish campaign spending and extensive use of social media platforms to convince voters of his advantage.

political relations

In the Philippines political families dominate the scene, and the Marcos family is among the most famous, and the new president and vice president exemplify that case as they unified their bases of support in the north and south of the country, in a partnership brokered by former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, which reflects not only the mutual preservation of their families, but Also the wider system of political families that dominate politics in the Philippines, and had the Arroyo not mediated this alliance they would have fought each other, and it would have disintegrated their bases.

With Sarah Duterte, 43, Jr will protect his predecessor from investigations and possible prosecutions for human rights abuses and the extrajudicial killing of thousands during his "war on drugs" policy launched by Duterte and opened by the International Criminal Court, Junior is likely to face demands to prosecute Duterte for Thousands of killings, but Marcus Jr. has previously said he welcomes ICC investigators as tourists only.

How will he rule?

During his campaign, Junior ignored all the presidential debates, leaving many guessing how his administration would deal with the many challenges facing the Philippines.

There are fears that Marcos Jr. will return to the persecution that prevailed in his father's days, and observers say, "This may indicate a new era of the ruling family's policies, rather than a brutal dictatorship."

But when Junior was declared the winner, his spokesman issued a statement telling the world: Judge me not by my ancestors, but by my actions.

But observers of the scene say that any analysis of the future of the Philippines under the presidency of the Marcos family scion would seem hollow without looking back.

Junior may seek to change the 1987 constitution, attempting to change a provision that prevents presidents from seeking re-election at the end of a 6-year term.

In addition to the legal file, the country suffers from a stifling economic situation, a fifth of Filipinos live in extreme poverty, and large numbers of small businesses have collapsed.

But Marcos did not offer a vision or a program for how to tackle these problems, contenting himself with the image that his election campaign presented as a champion of the poor.

Foreign Policy

The Philippines has often been a traditional military ally of the United States, but relations between Washington and Manila soured under Duterte and he declared his country's "secession" from the United States, although former President Donald Trump said the relationship remained "great".

It is unclear how Junior's victory will change the country's relationship with China. Will he continue his predecessor's policies and continue to please Chinese leader Xi Jinping amid territorial disputes between the two countries in the South China Sea, or will he take a softer stance with the United States and other Western countries?

US Presidents Joe Biden and China were among the first world leaders to congratulate Junior on his apparent election victory, suggesting that the two rivals view the Philippines as a major hub in the strategically important Indo-Pacific region.

The reality is that Marcos Jr. will have to tread very carefully with regard to relations with the United States. Despite billions of dollars in Chinese investment in the Philippines, the country still relies on the United States as its main supporter, as the US military is a major source of arms and training.