Does the war in Ukraine change Israel's security calculations?

The National Interest website published an analysis on the impact of the Russian war in Ukraine on Israeli security calculations, and the repercussions that may result from it that would restrict Israeli air operations in Lebanon and Syria and change Tel Aviv's military calculations.

In his article, published entitled "Does the war in Ukraine change Israel's security calculations?", journalist and writer Sajjad Safai believes that during most of its history, Israel was able to quickly and decisively control the armed forces of its Arab neighbors inside their lands.

But the Israeli deterrent power has suffered failures in the past two decades. The Israeli “deterrence capacity” witnessed an accelerated decline after the humiliating expulsion of Israeli forces from Lebanon in 2000, when Hezbollah - the armed group that the United States and Israel consider a “mob” militia - managed to force The "indomitable" Israeli army to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

The writer elaborates on aspects of the Israeli military failures in Lebanon, and Hezbollah's specific operations, through which it succeeded to a large extent in stopping the Israeli army's ground attacks, but the party remained unable to challenge the almost absolute air superiority of the Israeli forces in the skies of Lebanon.

Safai says that the Israeli deterrence capability, which is a cornerstone of the Israeli strategic doctrine, quickly became synonymous with Israeli air superiority.

In recent years, Israel has worked to prevent anything that would challenge its air supremacy, launching air strikes inside Lebanon and Syria to prevent Russian anti-aircraft weapons from reaching Hezbollah.

But air strikes alone are not enough to maintain Israel's air superiority, as Tel Aviv will have to reduce or stop the flow of those game-changing weapons from Russia to Syria.

To achieve this, Safai believes that the Israeli government will seek to maintain its cold and stable relationship with Moscow despite the tensions between Russia and the West.

The article argues that until 2015 Israel's concerns about Moscow's role in the Middle East remained mostly limited to Russia's sale of game-changing military equipment, such as air defense systems to Israel's opponents, Syria and Iran, which would likely find their way into the hands of Israel's other enemies such as Hezbollah. Allah.

turning point!

But Russia's importance to Israel's security - and the writer's words - witnessed a qualitative shift in 2015 with the Russian military intervention in Syria.

Moscow's decision to supply Syrian regular forces and Iranian-backed forces fighting ISIS and other anti-government rebels in the country was crucial to President Bashar al-Assad's ability to regain control of Syrian territory, and made Russia the de facto guardian of the airspace. The Syrian issue, which produced a new, unwelcome variable in the Israeli security calculations.

The writer explains how the Russian military presence has limited Israel's ability to launch air strikes against Iranian targets and Tehran's allies deep in Syrian territory, after it was previously able to strike those targets without a significant hindrance.

He goes on to say that the goal of the Israeli strikes is to prevent any long-term Iranian military presence in neighboring Syria, but the Israelis now need to obtain Moscow's approval and cooperation before launching any air strikes inside Syrian territory.

The writer believes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has complicated matters, as Tel Aviv, under pressure from its Western allies, especially the United States, was forced to take unprecedented measures against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Israel voted in favor of the UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid more than once condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Israel also voted in favor of suspending Russia from the UN Human Rights Council over alleged massacres by Russian forces in Bucha near Kyiv, and banks in Israel have also cut ties with sanctioned Russian banks.

discontent

The writer says that the shift in the Israeli position has upset Moscow, although Israel has so far been able to contain the Russian response to a large extent.

But if the Russo-Ukrainian war continues and escalates, the Russians may respond to Israel's hardline stance toward their invasion of Ukraine by impeding Israel's ability to conduct risk-free airstrikes inside Syria.

And Israeli television recently reported that a Russian S-300 air defense system fired missiles at Israeli planes returning from raids inside Syria for the first time. In recent days, the Russians summoned the Israeli ambassador in Moscow after an Israeli air strike on Damascus International Airport.

The writer believes that if tensions with Israel reach a turning point, this may also lead Russia to give more space to pro-Iranian forces inside Syria.

The writer concludes that if Russian-Western tensions lead to undermining Russian-Israeli relations, this will lead to the entrenchment of the Iranian military forces in Syria and will pose a new threat to Israeli national security.