The British magazine The Economist published an analysis stating that the economic crisis caused by the Russian war on Ukraine will inevitably lead to igniting unrest around the world this year that may include Arab countries.

The magazine said in an analytical article published under the title "A coming wave of turmoil, this is how you can avoid some" that the last time the world suffered because of the crisis of high food prices, as is happening now, caused the outbreak of the events of the Arab Spring, which resulted in the overthrow of 4 presidents and ignited horrific civil wars in Both Syria and Libya.

She highlighted that Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine has severely damaged the grain and energy markets, so turmoil is inevitable this year as well.

The Economist explained that a statistical model that it prepared with the aim of identifying the relationship between high food and fuel prices and political turmoil revealed that the rise in fuel and food prices has historically been a strong indicator of the outbreak of mass protests, riots and political violence.

She pointed out that if the findings of her study are correct, it is expected that many countries will witness an escalation of popular unrest this year.


Arab countries in danger

The magazine said that the countries at greatest risk are those that are already experiencing instability - such as Jordan and Egypt - that depend on food and fuel imports and have dilapidated public financial resources.

Many at-risk countries are run poorly or repressively.

She also indicated that the governments of many countries are seeking to alleviate the impact of the economic crisis, but they are burdened with debt and suffer from a lack of liquidity due to the crisis of the outbreak of the Corona pandemic.

She said that the average ratio of public debt to the gross domestic product of poor countries is about 70% and it is rising.

Poor countries are also paying higher interest rates and those rates are rising.

According to the International Monetary Fund, 41 poor countries are in “debt distress” or are at risk of suffering financial hardship due to the accumulation of debt.

According to the magazine, avoiding the explosion of popular anger in the coming days is difficult, but the beginning of work to avoid it begins with the abolition of policies that discourage agricultural production, such as price controls and export restrictions.

The magazine's analysis also sees the need to address the policies of some governments that discourage farmers and prevent them from working, similar to what is happening in Tunisia, where farmers are reluctant to cultivate their fertile lands because they have to sell their crops to the state for a small fee.

The magazine's report concluded that international financial institutions now have to strike a difficult balance.

A refusal of funding could lead to riots in a country.

And approval might rescue miserable governments by entrenching bad and unsustainable policies.

She said international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund, whose negotiators arrived in Sri Lanka and Tunisia this week, should give generous aid while insisting on reforms.

It must also continue to monitor how the money it has given to those countries is spent.