The bad news for Kyiv continues in the battle for Donbass.
After the Ukrainian defenders had to retreat on Friday from Severodonetsk, the chemical town where every street was fought for weeks, the situation in neighboring Lysychansk came to a head at the start of the week.
The city to the west is actually considered a viable defensive position.
It extends over a range of hills from which the Ukrainian artillery have good sighting and shooting opportunities.
In addition, the river Siwerskyi Donets as a natural obstacle hinders the advance of Russian forces from the direction of Severodonetsk.
Nevertheless, it does not seem certain that the Ukrainians will be able to hold out in their last bastion in the Luhansk region for as long as they did in the industrial city to the east.
Lorenz Hemicker
Editor in Politics
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Ukraine's General Staff said on Monday Russian forces used artillery to cut off the city of Lysychansk from southern Ukraine.
The American Institute for War Studies (ISW), citing Russian sources, reported that Russian and Ukrainian troops were fighting each other in both the southeast and northwest of Lysychansk.
The attackers managed to secure a number of newly conquered positions.
A message by the Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Hajdaj on the short message service Telegram also indicated the tense situation.
He appealed to all remaining citizens to leave the city as soon as possible.
The situation is "very difficult".
You could also say: devastating.
A representative of the Ministry of Defense in Berlin last Friday referred to a change in the operational approach of the Russian armed forces.
In the past, Moscow's troops failed several times in attempts to cross the Siwerskyi Donets.
The tributary of the Don forms a natural obstacle not only in the eastern part of the salient between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, but also in the north between Ukrainian and Russian troops.
In the meantime, according to Colonel Ralf Feldotto in a video broadcast by the Bundeswehr, the Russians are using a “hammer and anvil” method.
The Russian troops tried to force the Ukrainian forces against the river from the south instead of encircling them from the north and south as before.
The attackers can rely on their numerical superiority in terms of troops and firepower.
Feldotto put the balance of power at 2:1 among the soldiers - which is by no means huge given the lack of personnel - and among the artillery at 6:1 to 10:1 in favor of the Russians.
The attackers would also benefit from the longer range of their guns.
That would be an average of 40 kilometers, in the Ukraine, however, only twelve.
In this way, the Russian artillery could "clear" the front Ukrainian positions - without being fired upon themselves - and then Russian infantry could take them.
With deliveries of the Panzerhaubitze 2000, mobile western artillery with greater range and high precision, the disadvantage is "a little" compensated.
Other disadvantages are likely to be more difficult to change for the Ukrainians.
The ISW wrote last week that the Russian artillery could be fought with their combat drones.
That's because the Russian military has reinforced air defenses in the region.
The blood toll is also causing problems for the Ukrainians.
Despite all the caution with regard to the numbers, the losses on both sides apparently balance each other out.
But Russia has significantly larger reserves.
According to Ukrainian sources, between 100 and 200 soldiers are killed at the front every day, especially in Donbass, where the best troops are fighting, and hundreds are wounded.
Western military experts assume that the proportion of troops, some of whom had years of combat experience in eastern Ukraine, has fallen significantly - and that conscripts can hardly be replaced.
Feldotto was certain that further action for the Russians in the Donbass would not be a sure-fire success.
The terrain west of Lyssychansk with its range of hills is comparable to that of northern Hesse – the Russians cannot simply march through there either.