By taking back Kherson and stopping the water supply to the parts of Ukraine where Russian forces are weakest would change the dynamics of the war.
Military success in the southern parts of the country would create problems for the Russians and force them to think about how to prioritize their forces, says Joakim Paasikivi.
He believes that Ukraine is facing a strategic choice and that change is needed here and now.
- Towards the end of autumn, there is a risk of division in the west, he says and believes that the western world may gradually lose interest in the war.
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We already see this with an unclear parliamentary situation in France and there are such signs in the United States as well.
The support is still strong but Boris Johnson is loose, he is one of the strongest advocates for support.
It is an uncertain situation in the long run, he says.
Hear more from Joakim Paasikivi about the development of the war in the clip above.