It has been four months since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine in 24 days.


The Russian and Ukrainian troops are engaged in attrition warfare with many losses in the eastern part and the southern part of the Black Sea coast, and there is no way to end the battle.

The Russian Defense Ministry killed more than 150 Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Luhansk Oblast on the 23rd, and destroyed 49 Ukrainian fuel facilities and up to 50 fighting vehicles in attacks such as missiles. Was announced.



Russian troops appear to be focusing their forces on the two eastern states, especially in the Ukrainian base, Severodonetsk and adjacent Lysychans'k, with the aim of gaining full control of Luhansk Oblast in the near future.



The British Ministry of Defense analyzed on the 23rd that Russian troops have recently advanced troops toward Lysychans'k and are increasing pressure on areas such as Severodonetsk, and the American think tank "War Institute" also said on the 22nd. Russian troops are likely to reach Lysychans'k in a few days. "



On the other hand, the Ukrainian army is showing a move to recapture some controlled areas such as southern Kherson Oblast, and continues to fight violently on the coast of the Black Sea and the island of the base, which is the transportation route for grain export. ..



Under these circumstances, Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov said on the 23rd that the weapon "high mobility rocket artillery system" that is said to be capable of precise attacks arrived from the United States, "It was a hot summer for Russian invaders, and some It will be the last summer for us, "he said.



On the other hand, Russia has further strengthened its fighting spirit against Ukraine, which receives military support from the West, and President Putin emphasized on the 17th of this month that "all the goals of the special military operation will surely be achieved" and will not take a step back. Did.



The Russian and Ukrainian troops are engaged in attrition warfare with many losses, and even four months after the Russian military invasion, there is no way to end the battle.

The sacrifice of soldiers in both Ukraine and Russia is the loss of social infrastructure

In the four months of the military invasion, the sacrifices of both soldiers and the loss of social infrastructure on the Ukrainian side continue to increase in Ukraine.



▽ Mr. Aresovich, an adviser at the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on the 11th that the death toll of Ukrainian soldiers is about 100 per day, and 10,000 soldiers have been killed so far. Mentioned the possibility.



▽ On the other hand, regarding the number of deaths on the Russian side, the Russian Ministry of Defense has not announced the number since it announced 1351 in late March.



▽ The British Department of Defense pointed out on the 23rd of last month that the death toll of the Russian army is likely to reach about 15,000.



Regarding the loss of weapons on the Ukrainian side, the commander responsible for supplying ground troops in the Ukrainian army has so far ▽ about 400 tanks in an interview with the US military magazine "National Defense" dated 15th this month. , ▽ 1300 infantry fighting vehicles, ▽ 700 missile launch systems, etc. were lost, and the percentage of each loss was up to 50% of the total.



Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov said in an interview with Britain's leading economic magazine "The Economist" on the 12th, "In some combat areas, the Russian army has 10 times more firepower than the Ukrainian army." He called for accelerating the donation.



In Ukraine, the economic losses of Russian artillery and air strikes are also increasing.



The Economic University of Kieu, the capital, said that the total amount of infrastructure damage was 103.9 billion dollars as of the 8th, about 14 trillion yen in Japanese yen, and a wide range of damage such as roads, airport facilities, medical institutions and schools was confirmed. Reported that it was done.



As of late last month, it has been pointed out that the economic loss suffered by the military invasion of Ukraine is five times GDP = gross domestic product, and the ever-increasing damage casts a dark shadow on Ukraine's future.

Attrition warfare in eastern Ukraine with fierce battles

In eastern Ukraine, fierce fighting continues, resulting in an attrition warfare in which the sacrifices of both Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and the loss of weapons continue to grow.



On the other hand, in the southern part, the Ukrainian side has shown a readiness to embark on a reversal offensive, and a persistent resistance movement is taking place in the area where the Russian side has taken control.



After seizing Mariupol, a key point in the east, late last month, Russian troops stepped up their offensive to take full control of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in the east, and it is believed that Luhansk has already occupied 90%.



On the other hand, the Ukrainian army is not breaking the stance of a thorough fight, and is facing the defense of Severodonetsk, the base remaining in Luhansk Oblast, and Lysychans'k, which is adjacent across the river.



Of these, in Severodonetsk, the Russian army has taken control of most of the city after a fierce urban warfare, and the Ukrainian side continues to resist based on the "Azoto Chemical Factory", but against the Russian army that surpasses the firepower. The struggle is reported.



On the other hand, the loss on the Russian side has also accumulated, and the British Defense Ministry, which analyzes the war situation, pointed out on the 16th that the Russian army in the east has suffered a serious shortage of troops and the advance is slowing down.



Regarding the current situation where the sacrifice of both soldiers and the loss of weapons continue to increase, on the 15th, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Milly, the head of the U.S. military uniform group, said, "It is a fierce attrition war like World War I." The battle situation is expected to have a major impact on the overall battlefield in the future.



Russian troops are intensifying their offensive in the east, while Ukrainian troops are embarking on a reversal offensive in the south.



The southern state of Helson was adjacent to the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia was annexed unilaterally eight years ago, and the Russian Defense Ministry has been in control of the executive branch since mid-March, claiming it has taken control of the entire state.



On the other hand, the Ukrainian side has shown a policy of waiting for the supply of weapons from Europe and the United States and turning to a counterattack, and has shown a strong desire to recapture Kherson Oblast.



On the Ukrainian side, it seems that there is also an aim to turn to a counterattack in the southern part where the Russian army's troops are considered to be relatively thin, and to make the war situation in the eastern part advantageous.



The American think tank, the War Institute, pointed out on the 19th, "At the border of the state of Kherson, the Ukrainian army has been locally counterattacking and the Russian army has been pushed back."

Under these circumstances, Mayor Ehor Korihaeu of the city of Helson, who was unilaterally dismissed from the post of mayor by the Russian side in April, responded to an interview with NHK on the 17th. Was cut off, and he complained that Russia's rule was becoming an established fact.



Specifically, the Russian side has transferred the corporate registration of the company, used the private house without permission, and issued a Russian passport to some citizens.



On the other hand, the movement to resist such control is deep-rooted, and Mayor Korihaeu still gives instructions remotely regarding the operation of public transportation and water supply business, and remains influential in the administration.



Mayor Korihaeu emphasized his resistance, saying, "There are people involved with the enemy, but the number will be small. It should not be seen as giving power to Russia."

The background of the Ukrainian army “good fight”

Ukrainian troops continue to violently resist the intensifying offensive, four months after the Russian invasion.



Experts said that the Ukrainian army has brought the war situation into a stalemate in the eastern part where the Russian side is concentrating troops, and there is also a movement to turn to an offensive in some areas. "There is," he said, and analyzed that the background is the provision of weapons from Western countries.

The Russian army, which embarked on a military invasion on February 24, intensified its offensive toward seizing the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and temporarily approached the suburbs of Kyiv, but due to fierce resistance from the Ukrainian army, by early April I was forced to withdraw.



Since then, Russian troops have shifted their focus to eastern Ukraine and are now intensifying attacks in Severodonetsk in eastern Luhansk, as well as in eastern Donetsk and other parts of the south, but Ukrainian troops continue to resist fiercely. I am.



In an analysis released by the British Defense Ministry on the 22nd of this month, pro-Russian militants in Donetsk Oblast admitted that as of 16th this month, 2128 soldiers had died and 8897 were injured. "The death and injury rate is about 55%, highlighting the decline in Russian and pro-Russian troops in the eastern Donetsk region," he said.



In addition, the Ukrainian army announced on the 21st of this month that it "has caused enormous damage to the Russian side" on Zumiinui Island, one of the bases of the Russian army on the island of the Black Sea, and also in southern Kherson Oblast, which is said to have been seized by the Russian army. Ukrainian troops are also pushing back Russian troops.



Regarding the resistance of the Ukrainian army, Shinji Hyodo, director of the National Institute for Defense Studies, who is familiar with Russia's security, said, "Despite the inferior quantity of firepower compared to the Russian army, the Ukrainian army protects its own country. With such a high spirit, it has hindered the movement of the Russian army's significant advance, "he said, and analyzes that the Ukrainian army continues to resist more than the Russian side expected.

Background of "good fight" (1) Weapons provided by Europe and the United States

One of the reasons is that the Ukrainian army is using weapons provided by Western countries to effectively stop the invasion.



Weapons such as the anti-tank missile "Javelin" that penetrates the armor of tanks and the surface-to-air missile "Stinger" that can shoot down helicopters and fighters have been provided to the Ukrainian side.



These weapons are "portable" with the mobility that soldiers can carry on their shoulders and fire, and have been used in urban warfare such as in the suburbs of Kieu.



On the other hand, according to think tanks in the United States, in eastern Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, where fierce battles continue, battles are being held in open places with few obstacles such as buildings, so weapons provided by Europe and the United States are available. It means that we are shifting to "heavy weapons" with strong firepower and long range.



The Ukrainian government has also urged each country to provide more "heavy weapons", and the U.S. government has decided to provide "high-mobility rocket artillery systems" that can make more precise attacks behind enemy forces. rice field.

Background of "good fight" (2) Circumstances of the Russian army

It has been pointed out that the situation on the Russian side also has an influence on the background that the Ukrainian army is said to be fighting well.



According to the director of the Hyodo Policy Research Department, ▽ the morale of Russian soldiers has dropped significantly due to the prolonged invasion, ▽ the Russian army's command system has been confused, such as the soldiers leaving the front line, and ▽ precision guidance. We analyze that the latest weapons such as ammunition have begun to run out and we are forced to use old weapons.



He added, "The biggest problem with the Russian army is that it is not possible to significantly increase its current troops. It seems that this situation will continue for a while," and the Russian army continues to struggle. I showed the view.

Focus on maintaining the ability to continue the war with military support

Whether Ukraine can continue to resist the Russian army as the battle prolongs will be key to whether military support from the West can proceed smoothly.



"One of the points is whether the Russian army can significantly increase its strength, and whether Western countries can provide the weapons required by the Ukrainian side, which is inferior in firepower," said Hyodo Policy Research Director. I would like to point out and pay attention to whether the Western side can put the military support into practice in line with each other.

Former Russian military officer “Massive mobilization of unforgivable nationals for military defeat”

Former Russian military officer and military critic Valery Sillaev told NHK that it will be four months in 24 days since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine. It has not reached a decisive advantage now. The Ukrainian army is not in a position to expand the counterattack, and the Russian army is not in a state to defeat the Ukrainian army armed with Western military support. " Showed the idea of ​​doing.



On the other hand, regarding Severodonetsk, the base on the Ukrainian side of eastern Luhansk Oblast, he said that the Russian army would soon take control. It will try to seize the Black Sea coast and attack the Black Sea coast. However, it is not realistic to seize the capital Kieu, "he said, pointing out that the Russian side aims to expand the controlled area in the southern part such as the Black Sea coast.



On the Ukrainian side, he pointed out, "From the end of July to August, a large amount of weapons and ammunition will flow from Europe and the United States into Ukraine, and Ukraine will have weapons and personnel that can resist for a long time."



"The Ukrainian side may fight back in eastern Zmiiv and southern Kherson, but regaining control requires at least 30,000 new organized and armed troops," Russia said. He expressed the idea that it would be difficult to recapture the territory controlled by the side.



In addition, he expressed concern that Russia and the West, which continue to provide military support to Ukraine, could clash with each other. If it happens, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is possible. This is the most horrifying and most disturbing scenario. " I showed you how to look at it.



On the other hand, regarding the ceasefire negotiations, he said, "Russia and Ukraine expect to win and do not need negotiations," he said, pointing out that the momentum for negotiations has not increased.



On top of that, the Russian side said, "Military defeat in Ukraine is unacceptable because it means the collapse of Putin's regime. Russia is still fighting in peacetime troops. If it is about to lose , President Putin will declare mobilization. "If the invasion is not successful, Putin will continue to mobilize the masses of the people.

Kyiv citizens

Four months after Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, people who had been evacuated in the capital Kyiv are returning, and many shops and restaurants are reopening. It's gradually coming back.

On the other hand, efforts are being made to keep people aware of the reality of the ongoing battle, and a national flag with the names of those who died in the battle is hung in a corner of the Independence Square in the center of Kieu. Currently, more than 500 flags are lined up.



There is also a notebook that spells out memorial words, and you can see people on the road stopping to write or take pictures.

A 19-year-old woman who visited the square said that she had been temporarily evacuated to Spain and said, "I feel the pain of the war that people have experienced by returning to Kieu. There is no such thing. "



She then she said, "I want you to know that this war is not just about democracy in Ukraine, but about democracy in the world," she said, and the international community is interested in Ukraine as the war prolongs. She was asking me to keep it.

Meanwhile, in another square in the center of Kieu, Russian tanks destroyed by the Ukrainian army and passenger cars attacked by the Russian army are on display.



About four months after the military invasion began, a 53-year-old woman said, "Angry against Russia has now turned into hatred. I want the war to end tomorrow, but I have no idea when it will actually end. I was talking.



A 60-year-old man said, "In the last four months, my thinking has changed a lot and I am convinced of Ukraine's victory." "Unfortunately, the war is unlikely to end soon. Ukrainian troops. Fights well, but the enemy has far more troops and equipment than we do. "



Also, the 12-year-old son and the 40-year-old mother who visited said, "I've been careful to let my boy play games and eat delicious food so that he doesn't have to think about the cruel war. Has no hope for the future and seems to be in total darkness. "



On the other hand, a 53-year-old woman said, "Europe was not bombed and people were killed." That's probably the case, because it won't happen, but we should be aware that if Ukraine loses, Europe will definitely be the next target. "



"I'm disappointed with that idea, because the Ukrainians are much more tired, and I hope the world continues to support us," she said. I did.

Ukrainian poll “War continues for more than half a year” increased to 67%

In Ukraine, 67% of the people think that the war will continue for more than half a year, and it is more than five times as many as three months ago. As a result of the investigation, I found out.



The poll was conducted by an independent Ukrainian research agency on the 18th and 19th of this month throughout Ukraine, except for the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia was annexed, and areas under Russian control, with 1,200 people over the age of 18. I got an answer from.



According to it, 93% of people think that Ukraine can repel Russian troops, and the overwhelming majority still believe in Ukraine's victory.



On the other hand, when asked how long the war would last, 67% of the respondents answered that it was 6 months or more, or 1 year or more, which was about 2 out of 3 people, 3 months ago. Many people are prepared to prolong the battle, such as increasing from 12% to more than five times the survey.



In addition, 87% of people support the accession to the EU = European Union that Ukraine is applying for, and 69% think that they can join within 5 years, and the result of wishing for early accession. It has become.

What is the reality of Kherson's "Russification" in the south?

A reporter from a local television station who evacuated from Kherson in southern Ukraine, which Russia allegedly took control of, revealed the facts of Russian rule and the harsh life of its citizens.



The reporter is Olena Banina (44), who is from Kherson and works at a local branch of a Ukrainian commercial broadcaster.



She was able to evacuate from Kherson by car after passing through strict Russian military inspections with her husband and three children from the 8th to the 2nd of this month, and on the 21st, she interviewed NHK near the capital Kieu. I responded to.



She said she was a journalist in March when she announced that she had taken control of Kherson, although she told her about the situation on the first day of the Russian invasion. She has secretly recorded the city on her mobile phone.

In the video, Russian armored cars stopped along the road, soldiers with guns can be seen nearby, and according to Mr. Banina, there are checkpoints everywhere, and strict nighttime outing bans are taken. It means that it was.



In addition, a search was conducted on the homes of security personnel such as former military personnel and police, and more than 600 people were detained, and some were subsequently found dead.



"When people were demonstrating protests, Russian troops were watching at first, but then they started to eliminate them, and there were casualties," Vanina said.



Banina's eldest daughter, 17-year-old Oleksandra, said, "Her classmate's sister is about to be taken by a Russian soldier. All the women are afraid to go out." , She had been locked up in her house for about three months.



Meanwhile, Mr. Banina said that people's daily lives are also in a difficult situation.



Supermarkets and pharmacies were closed because they did not receive the products from the Ukrainian side, opening up a market for selling the products that people brought.

こうした商品や食料品の多くは、ロシアが一方的に併合した、隣接するクリミアから運ばれ、映像では、多くの人が野菜などの食料や日用品などが並べられた通りの出店に買いに訪れている様子が写っていますが、とりわけ医薬品の不足が深刻だということです。

また、ATMも使えない状態で、銀行でお金を引き出すにも数週間待たなければならず、利子を払って個人業者からお金を借りてやりくりしている人もいるということです。

先月末からは携帯電話が通じなくなり、インターネットもクリミアにあるロシアのネットワークに接続しないとアクセスできないということです。

また、バニナさんは、ロシアが一方的に任命したヘルソンの行政の長のもとで、ロシアが支配の既成事実化を進めようとしていると指摘したうえで「ロシアの通貨ルーブルを流通させようと、店主に値札を2つ作るよう命じました。また、ロシアの教育プログラムを導入しようと教員たちを集めていますが、誰も賛同していません」と明らかにしました。

また、メディアへの統制も行われていて、ロシア軍によってテレビ塔の機器が破壊され、通常の放送は、ロシアの番組しか見られなくなっているということです。

ヘルソン州で進むこうした「ロシア化」の動きについて、バニナさんは「まるでガンのようです。一見、正常に見えますが、ヘルソンの街はもう死にかけています。未来は何もありません。時代が30年、後戻りしてしまいました」と嘆いていました。

こうした状況を受けて、ヘルソンからの脱出を決意したバニナさんたちですが、ウクライナ側に避難するルートは表向きは存在しておらず、入念に下調べをして地元の人しか知らない道をひたすら進むしかなかったといいます。

ヘルソンからロシアの支配地域を抜けウクライナ側に向かう途中、30を超える検問所が設けられていたということで、行き先や目的のほか子どもの荷物にいたるまで何度も調べられました。

避難中に撮影した映像には、道ばたに砲撃を受けて破壊された建物や車が写っていて、自分たちもいつ攻撃を受けるかわからず、命がけの避難だったといいます。

バニナさんは、「ジャーナリストなので拘束対象のリストに載っているかもしれず、砲撃を受けるかもしれないと常に緊張状態でした。ウクライナ側に着いてウクライナ軍の兵士にあいさつをされたとき、みんな涙を流しました」と話し、目頭を熱くしていました。

そして、「ヘルソンの人々は解放されるのを待っています。ウクライナ軍の犠牲が最小限に抑えられるなら長く待つ覚悟はできています」と述べ、ウクライナ軍の反撃でヘルソンが解放されることを願っていました。

モスクワ市民は

It has been four months since Russia's military invasion of Ukraine began, and although the voices of war and anti-war have been suppressed under strict information control in Russia, the effects of sanctions from Europe and the United States are gradually affecting. In the capital city of Moscow, there were some complaints about the prolonged invasion.



Of these, a 47-year-old woman who runs an interior company said, "The number of customers has visibly decreased due to the effects of sanctions. The government subsidies and loans that were available at the time of the spread of the new corona virus are now very large. It's difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises, and it's a tough situation for small and medium-sized enterprises. "



A 34-year-old man, who was in charge of sales at a company that handles electrical appliances, said, "Honestly, it's an unpleasant situation. I have a mortgage." So I have to find a solution, but it's hard to find a job. "



On top of that, he complained about the military invasion, saying, "I thought it would end sooner, but honestly, it's very long."



In addition, a 27-year-old man working at a law firm that serves foreigners said, "Some of his friends went out saying it was stuffy here," and some have already emigrated abroad. I revealed.



President Putin has repeatedly appealed to the public for the legitimacy of the military invasion of Ukraine, strengthened information control in the country, and suppressed the voices of war and anti-war, but to prolong the invasion and strengthen sanctions from Europe and the United States. On the other hand, dissatisfaction seems to be smoldering among the citizens.