【Reporter Connection】

　　The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on June 20, protesting Lithuania's ban on the transportation of goods to the Russian enclave Kaliningrad by railways within Lithuania, saying that the cubic ban is an open hostile act that violates international obligations and that if Lithuania does not resume transportation, Russia will fight back.

Observers here pointed out that the cubic move is likely to provoke Russia to take more substantive tough actions, the worst consequence of which will result in a direct head-on collision between Russia and NATO.

Lithuania 'blockade' Russian enclave

　　Kaliningrad Oblast is an enclave in Russia, bordering the Baltic Sea to the north, surrounded by Lithuania and Poland, two NATO and EU member states, and its cross-border land transport must pass through Lithuania or Poland.

　　Lithuanian Railways notified Kaliningrad State Railways on June 17 that it will ban goods sanctioned by the European Union from being shipped to Kaliningrad through Lithuanian territory from the 18th.

According to the list drawn up by the cube, the goods prohibited from transiting Lithuania mainly include coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology products, and preliminary estimates involve 40% to 50% of the goods transported between Kaliningrad and the Russian mainland.

　　In fact, Lithuania's "blatant blockade" of Kaliningrad has both historical entanglements between Lithuania and Russia, as well as current grievances.

On the one hand, in recent years, especially after Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine, Lithuania, which has long adhered to an anti-Russian stance, stood on the front line of NATO and actively pushed the United States to set up permanent military bases in the Baltic countries to deter Russia.

On the other hand, the proposal initiated by a member of the Russian State Duma of the United Russia Party has caused Lithuania's anger.

More than a week ago, State Duma member Fedorov submitted a draft law calling for the repeal of the USSR Council of State resolution on "recognition of the independence of the Republic of Lithuania" on the grounds that Lithuania had not held a referendum on secession from the Soviet Union and had not established a transition period to consider all controversial issues, thus violating several articles of the USSR Constitution.

　　Analysts pointed out that the decision to "block" Kaliningrad was not made by Lithuania alone, but was instructed by the European Union, the United Kingdom or the United States behind the scenes.

At the request of the European Commission, the freight department of Lithuanian Railways sent a confirmation letter to customers to prohibit the transit of goods subject to the fifth round of EU sanctions against Russia and Belarus through Lithuania.

Lithuania's Foreign Minister Landsbergis said on the 20th that the ban on transshipment of goods to Kaliningrad Oblast through Lithuania was not a decision of Lithuania, but was made in accordance with the relevant EU sanctions against Russia.

On the 21st, because Lithuania blocked the transit of goods in Kaliningrad Oblast, the head of the EU delegation in Moscow, Marcus Edler, was summoned by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Russia denounces Cubic move as 'illegal'

　　In fact, as early as the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there have been rumors that Kaliningrad may be blocked from time to time.

At the beginning of April, Kaliningrad Governor Alikhanov announced that although the European Union prohibits freight connections with Russia and Belarus, this will not affect the transportation of goods from Russia to Lithuania or Poland to Kaliningrad.

As a precautionary measure, Kaliningrad has stored 3 to 6 months' worth of daily necessities such as meat, dairy products, fish, corn, wheat and rapeseed.

　　After Lithuania launched the "blockade", the Kaliningrad government urged the people not to panic buy, saying that oil, gasoline and daily necessities were not affected by the embargo; at the same time, it contacted Russian federal agencies to increase the number of flights from Ust-Lu near St. Petersburg. Sea transport from the Port of Canada to the Baltic Port of Kaliningrad.

　　Immediately, the Russian side refuted Lithuania's decision from a legal point of view as absurd.

Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament) Vice-President Kosachev said a few days ago that as a member of the European Union, Lithuania's blockade of Kaliningrad violated many international laws of the European Union and violated the obligations of itself and the European Union.

On June 24, 1994, when the Russian Federation established its partnership with the European Union, the principle of "freedom of transit" was established, in which Article 12 stipulates that "each party shall ensure that goods originating from or destined for the customs territory of the other side are in its territory. Free transit within."

Article V of the 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade also established the "freedom of transit" clause.

He went on to warn that if the independent actions succeed, the West may even end up violating the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) adopted in 1982, making it impossible for ships to enter Kaliningrad through the high seas.

　　On the 20th, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Lithuania's interim charge d'affaires in Russia Ambrancy to protest against Lithuania's prohibition of transporting goods to Kaliningrad Oblast via railways within Lithuania without prior notification to Russia.

The Russian side believes that the cubic measures violate international legal obligations, in particular the joint declaration signed by Russia and the European Union on the issue of transit between Kaliningrad Oblast and other territories of the Russian Federation.

Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov also said on the same day that Lithuania's move is unprecedented and illegal, and Russia regards this as part of its blockade of Russia.

Risk of Russian-Northern conflict rising sharply

　　Russian strategists believe that Lithuania's traffic blockade of Kaliningrad created a reason for provoking war because it violated Russia's right to travel to its own territory.

Relevant international law stipulates that citizens of all countries have the right to travel to their own enclaves, and any behavior that hinders the realization of this right can be regarded as aggression.

Lithuania's decision was suicidal, it justified Russia's declaration of war on it.

　　On June 21, General Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Federal Security Council, issued a solemn statement saying, "Our northwestern border area is under pressure from NATO's troop and intelligence activities near the Russian border, under unprecedented sanctions. In the context of putting pressure on Russia’s economy, Vilnius announced a traffic blockade on Kaliningrad Oblast, and the transportation channel for goods from western my country into Kaliningrad was interrupted.” “Russia will definitely respond to such hostile actions. , Moscow is developing appropriate measures in the form of full mobilization across sectors and implementing them decisively in the near future, Lithuania will soon feel the serious negative consequences of these measures.”

　　At present, the situation is very serious.

Several heavyweight Russian officials issued solemn statements on this incident, which actually amounted to sending a war signal to Lithuania.

Analysts here believe that Russia will first "respond to the embargo with an embargo and confront the blockade with a blockade".

Its priority is that, with the cooperation of Belarus, Russia will impose an onshore energy embargo on Lithuania and stop supplying power to the "BRELL energy ring network" connecting Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

　　After legal battles, diplomatic battles, and energy battles fail, tougher options will emerge.

Klimov, chairman of the Russian Federation Council's Committee for Safeguarding State Sovereignty, said on the 20th that the EU's support for Lithuania's blockade of Kaliningrad Oblast is a direct aggression against Russia. Problems with transporting supplies in the state.

Some experts pointed out that the most likely way for Russia is to imitate the practice of the Berlin airlift after World War II and use military transport planes to deliver supplies to Kaliningrad in the name of humanitarianism.

　　Not only that, Russia may also act according to the law to solve the "Suwauke Corridor" problem.

The Russian side believes that, according to the package agreement reached between Lithuania, Russia and the EU, after the "Kaliningrad transit" issue is resolved, the Lithuanian state border treaty has been ratified.

Today, if Lithuania unilaterally violates the transit agreement, the legitimacy of the border will be lost, and Russia has the right to establish a land corridor to Kaliningrad where it sees fit.

　　Obviously, the response measures chosen by Russia, whether for Lithuania or the United States and NATO behind it, are unbearably heavy.

Once the Russian confrontation starts, the United States and NATO invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to fulfill their collective defense commitments, which will detonate a conflict or even a war between NATO and Russia.

　　So far, NATO has not made any response to this incident.

The "Madrid Summit" of NATO is imminent, and the "blockade of Kaliningrad" made by Lithuania has become a difficult problem for NATO.

(Moscow, June 22, our reporter Han Xianyang in Moscow)