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The winds have not flowed with what Iran desires for its nuclear file since the resumption of its development more than two decades ago and it collided with the Iranian opposition leaking information about it, which formed the first nucleus of the crisis with the West.

After Tehran signed the Joint Action Plan with the Six-Party Group in 2015, the withdrawal of the previous US administration from the nuclear agreement brought tension again to its nuclear activities.

Finally, the Russian war on Ukraine and Moscow’s demands for written guarantees to continue Iran’s cooperation made matters worse, and torpedoed what had been agreed upon by the parties to the nuclear negotiations in Vienna, not to mention that Israeli policy has constantly constituted an escalating factor against the already inflamed nuclear file.

Al Jazeera Net polled the views of Iranian experts and political analysts to present possible scenarios regarding the future of the Iranian nuclear file, especially after the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors adopted the Western resolution officially criticizing Tehran for not cooperating with the international organization.

Majali believes that the Iranian and American parties want to save the 2015 nuclear agreement (communication sites)

desire to agree

For his part, the former Iranian diplomat Fereydoun Majali believes that both the Iranian and American parties want to save the 2015 nuclear agreement, explaining that Washington wants Tehran to return to the energy market, especially after the Russian war on Ukraine and Moscow's manipulation of the gas and oil card and pressure on Western countries.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Majali explained that the Iranian talk about thwarting the policy of maximum pressure does not mean a "comprehensive victory" in light of inflation, poverty and isolation imposed on Tehran, describing its desire to return to global markets, international politics and economic independence as a "rational policy."

He expressed his hope that this desire for openness and diversification of its sources would form the basis for the first possible scenarios regarding Iranian nuclear, stressing that saving the nuclear agreement could lead to the establishment of security and stability at the regional and international levels, in addition to reducing pressure on Iran and supplying the market with Iranian oil and gas.


The specter of the return of the dispute

In light of the new tension over Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency following the adoption by the Board of Governors of a resolution criticizing Tehran, Professor of Political Science and Researcher at the “Contemporary History” Foundation for Studies Reza Hajjet believes that the dispute will return to the nuclear file, believing that the specter of “escalation and mutual escalation” does not It is still looming as one of the scenarios before the nuclear file.

In its last quarterly report, the agency denounced the lack of "satisfactory answers" from Iran about the traces of enriched uranium that were found in 3 undeclared sites, namely Marivan (west), Faramin and Turquozabad in Tehran province.

Hajjat ​​added - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that it is not possible to imagine overcoming the obstacles in the nuclear file except by Tehran's retraction of its steps it took in response to the American withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the issuance of the Western decision in the Board of Governors of the Atomic Agency, stressing that Tehran is not ready to reverse its steps until after Implementation of its demands, foremost of which is the removal of the Revolutionary Guards from the US terrorism list.

The Iranian researcher believes that the administration of US President Joe Biden has returned to applying pressure on Tehran, and that he expects the latter to respond in turn to these pressures, which means that the nuclear file is on a date with escalation and corresponding escalation during the coming period, but he ruled out the development of events into a military confrontation.

Bahrami Rad: The Russian war on Ukraine may push the West to negotiate with Iran to get the nuclear file out of the blockage (Al-Jazeera)

temporary freeze

On the other hand, international affairs researcher Parastu Bahrami Rad believes that the parties to the nuclear negotiations have no way to reduce the escalating tension over the Iranian nuclear program but to revive the nuclear agreement despite its shortcomings, and she expects to reach a "interim agreement" to bypass the current critical stage.

Bahrami Rad explained to Al Jazeera Net that Western countries, led by the United States, fear Chinese expansion on the one hand, and the high rate of uranium enrichment in Iran on the other hand, and that the Iranian nuclear developments and the Russian war on Ukraine may push the western side to negotiate with Iran to get the nuclear file out of the blockage. .

As for the fourth possible scenario regarding the Iranian nuclear file - according to Bahrami Rad - it is a freeze until the US midterm elections scheduled for next November, and she referred to opinion polls that show the decline in President Joe Biden's popularity, which raises his fear that Democrats will lose their seats in Congress if he agrees On Iranian demands in light of the great opposition he faces in Washington regarding the Iranian nuclear program.


The death of the agreement

Finally, the researcher in strategic affairs, Saeed Shawardi, expected the announcement of the final death of the nuclear agreement, stressing that although the agreement was eliminated some time ago and only its name remains, the official announcement of its termination will have consequences and repercussions that may not improve its consequences.

Shawardi warned - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - of the possibility of war in the event that Tehran took new nuclear steps in response to the US withdrawal that killed the nuclear agreement, "or in the event that the Zionist entity launches a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities," stressing that the fifth possible scenario Regarding the nuclear file, it is the most costly and dangerous of all.

After the Israeli escalation in the targeting of Iranian figures and scholars, Iranian and regional public opinion is awaiting what will result from Biden’s planned visit to the region in the middle of next month, and what will result in the mediations aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement, and how the winds of politics will flow this time;

For the sake of security and stability in the region, or towards more escalation and tension?