Is the key to survival of the local railroad crisis in high school students?
Regular half price, new station also June 17, 17:47
The railroad, which was severely damaged by the disaster, resumed operation last year.
It has been in the red since its opening, and a large amount of money is expected to be restored, so it is in danger of survival at once.
Still, I decided to recover.
The key to survival is actually the existence of “high school students”.
Sudden disaster in "crisis of survival"
The third sector "Kumagawa Railway" that runs in the southern part of Kumamoto Prefecture has been restored in some sections.
Due to the heavy rain in Kumamoto in July, all the vehicles owned by the company were flooded and the bridge was washed away.
In addition to the harsh business conditions that have been in the red since it opened more than 30 years ago, the estimated cost of recovery is more than 4 billion yen.
I was forced to make a decision, including the possibility of "abolition".
However, the month after the disaster, the company decides on a "railroad restoration" policy.
The deciding factor was the demand of high school students who go to school.
There are four high schools along the Kumagawa Railway, which were used by about 850 people at that time.
In fact, it accounted for 80% of all users.
Is it useless on the bus?
After the disaster, the company operated alternative buses and continued to carry students on 13 buses, including large buses, during peak hours.
However, a problem emerged here.
The travel time for all sections was "45 minutes" for trains, but it took almost twice as long as "70 minutes" for buses.
It is said that there were cases where he was caught in a traffic jam and could not make it in time for class.
The background is that railroads are a better means of transportation than buses, especially for "mass transportation" in the "short time" of going to and from school, that is, "carrying many people at once".
For example, suppose you switch the railroad used by 1000 students to a bus.
If you take 225 people (capacity 150 people, occupancy rate 150%) on one train, you can carry about 4 cars at a time.
One bus.
If one unit has 50 people, a total of 20 units are required.
Of course, there are 20 drivers.
There are also two large license holders who are difficult to obtain due to lack of manpower.
It is difficult to have 20 buses "materials" and 20 drivers "human resources".
"High school students who need a railroad"
Before deciding on a recovery policy, the company also made a trial calculation if the railway was abolished.
After that, when switching to other means of transportation such as buses and BRT, it was judged that "railroads are more convenient and costly" in this area where there is demand for commuting to school.
The government has decided to restore the railway with financial support, such as the national government paying the actual 97.5% of the restoration cost and the prefecture and local governments paying the remaining 2.5%.
Kumagawa Railway President Yuji Nagae
"Because we spend a lot of taxes on restoration, I thought that we should avoid discussions such as" leaving it because it has been around for a long time "and decide by numbers.
There are people who need it fundamentally .
When I thought it was important, there were high school students in this area who needed a railroad. "
And last November, the Kumagawa Railway partially restored and resumed operation in the 18.9 km section between Yunomae and Higo-Nishinomura.
It is expected that it will take several years to restore the entire line of the remaining 6 km section.
Looking at the "student demand" data
The Kumagawa Railway, which was in the red but was restored at public expense due to the need to meet the demand for attending school.
It may be said that "students are the last to survive local railways."
Similarly, how many routes are used by students all over the country even though management is difficult?
Open data that can tell you this is in the "Annual Report of Railway Statistics" compiled annually by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
Since JR does not have data for each route, we will look at routes other than JR.
Demand for attending school is high even on difficult management routes
In addition to the student usage data, let's arrange the "transport density" data to know the overall usage status and the "operating profit / loss" data to know the income and expenditure status.
"Transport density" indicates how many people were carried in one day per kilogram, and it is said that it is "very difficult to make a profit" below 2000.
"Operating profit / loss" is the profit or loss generated in the railway business.
The figure below shows the ranking of the strict routes with a "transportation density of less than 2000" in order of the number of regular school users in the data for FY2018, before the number of users dropped significantly due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection.
The Kumagawa Railway was the 14th from the top.
It can be seen that there are 13 railways nationwide that have similarly low transportation densities and more regular commuter passes.
On the other hand, most of the routes are in the red, and we can see the severe situation that they are losing 100 million units.
What is fatal to local railways is ...
We asked Mr. Jun Umehara, a railway journalist who also serves as a teacher of NHK's "Children's Science Telephone Counseling", about this situation.
Mr. Umehara points out that it is common knowledge in the industry that the existence of students is a major reason why local railways have survived despite being in the red, and that financial support by the government has continued based on such a premise.
Jun Umehara
"It is not realistic for these local railways to dramatically improve their income and expenditure, and many have survived with the financial support of the government. Anyway, there are users who are fatal to such railways. It means that
if there are no users, no matter how much support is given, it will not be effective, and it will not be possible to maintain it. In other words, it will be discontinued. "
For local railways, if the students are gone, there is no choice but to discontinue the line.
There are also railroads that challenge students to survive.
Case 1 Akita / Yurikogen Railway
One of them is the third sector "Yuri Kogen Railway" in Akita Prefecture.
The number of users was about 635,000 in 1986 at the peak, but it has decreased to about 131,500, which is 20.7% in 2021.
The deficit amount of last year (2021) was about 100 million yen, and the management is still severe.
Furthermore, in recent years, there has been a change in the use of high school students, who make up about half of the users.
The usage rate of the commuter pass was drastically reduced.
From 43% in FY2016 to 24% in FY2020, it was declining at a pace far exceeding the declining birthrate and population decline in the areas along the railway lines.
When I compared it with JR's price per kilo to find out the reason, it was 2.5 times higher, and I decided that it was essential to reduce the price so that high school students could use it.
Through a questionnaire survey in advance, it was estimated that "even if it is half price, there will be no loss", but it is true.
The effect of the price cut is
The number of users last year (2021), which was half the price of the commuter pass, was 122.
The number has nearly doubled from 71 in the previous year.
If it is limited to the regular period, it will generate a profit of about 700,000 yen compared to before the implementation.
The president of Yurikogen Railway said, "This price cut also meant a barometer for local people to know if the railway was still needed."
Yurikogen Railway President Michio Kayaba
"There is a fear that if you do it vaguely, no one will support you and you will not think it is necessary.
If you do not ride even if you reduce the price, the area They don't need a railroad either. I think they came to the conclusion that they need it this time. "
"I've decided" Why half price?
Deficit Local railway president's decision
Click here for a detailed article on the Yurikogen Railway ↑
Case 2 Ibaraki / Hitachinaka Kaihin Railway
I would like to introduce another railway that has taken an "offensive move" in view of student demand.
It is "Hitachinaka Kaihin Railway" in Ibaraki Prefecture.
Abandoned railway lines were discussed due to the decrease in passengers, and it survived as a third sector funded by the city and others 15 years ago.
However, the harsh business environment did not change, and in 2018 before Corona, the railway business had a deficit of 50 million yen.
Meanwhile, it was "installation of a new station" that I dared to take.
The aim is just a student.
Last year, Hitachinaka City integrated five elementary and junior high schools and established a compulsory education school for elementary and junior high schools along the railway line.
In line with this, the company built a new station within a 2-minute walk from the school.
At this school, about 70% of all children and students, or about 400 people, use the railroad.
As a result, the number of regular attending school users was 374,000 in 2018, but 615,000 last year (2021).
That was an increase of 60%.
Hitachinaka Kaihin Railway President Chiaki Yoshida
"Inevitable integration of schools due to the declining birthrate and the establishment of new stations in line with the integration. With the integration, the cost of railways can be reduced compared to the construction of new school buses. I think that the efforts of the public and private sectors will be a good example of unity between the public and private sectors. "
Hitachinaka Kaihin Railway Going backwards in the era?
3km extension Hitachi Seaside Park captures 2 million people
Click here for a detailed article on Hitachinaka Kaihin Railway ↑
There is a similar movement in JR.
In March, JR Hokkaido relocated the Soya Line (Asahikawa-Wakkanai 259.4 km) station in Nayoro City in front of Nayoro High School along the line, 1.5 km away.
As the convenience of commuting to school increases and the number of students using it increases, it is expected to be a way to survive the Soya Line, which suffers from a deficit.
"The crisis is not limited to railways."
"Establishing a new station in a place where students gather" in "Uncovering hidden demand for school".
Mr. Umehara, a railway journalist, also evaluates that "it is an initiative that railway companies nationwide may pay attention to and spread."
On the other hand, he points out that the perspective that "railroads are not the only infrastructure that is difficult to maintain" should not be forgotten.
Jun Umehara
"Many local railways have already been rationalized to the point where they can be done. With the limited support from the government, it is not only railways that cannot be maintained.
Focus only on railways .
It is important to discuss what and how much we will leave as one of the infrastructures, including the way the town we live in, rather than discussing it. "
Kumamoto's "Kumagawa Railway" introduced at the beginning has partially recovered from the damage caused by the heavy rain disaster two years ago, but in the last 10 years or so, JR has routes in various places such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Chugoku regions. Has been abolished, and some routes have been abolished on private railways in Nagano and Aomori.
Mr. Nagae, the president of Kumagawa Railway, said, "I have decided that a railway is necessary this time, so it is important to discuss how to keep it alive." There will be a turning point when the railway's superiority will decline. "
Kumagawa Railway President Yuji Nagae
"The same situation may not continue in the future. I think it is necessary for the entire region to think about what kind of effect the railway will have on the region."
What are the infrastructure and means of transportation needed for the area where you and your family live as the population and lifestyle change?
If we are to maintain the railway as one of them, how will we secure the financial burden for that?
The problem of local railways seems to impose the importance of thinking ourselves, rather than leaving the role of thinking about what the region should be.
(Haruka Mouri, Akita Bureau / Kazuhiro Miwa, Mito Bureau / Keijiro Saito, Yuta Okubo, Network Press Department, Tatsuro Imono, Social Affairs Department)
Finally, I would like to briefly introduce the data introduced in the text.
"Railway Statistics Annual Report"
Click here for the page of the open data "Railway Statistics Annual Report" analyzed in the text (leave the NHK page)
Click "First Year of Reiwa" on this page, and then click "(1) -1 Transportation Report (Quantity)".
(Download starts)
"The number of people who used the train on a regular commute to school in a year (total number of people)" is the number in column D of Excel, "Regular commuter pass for transport personnel".
For example, at the top of the "Donan Isaribi Railway" (the third sector, which was separated from JR as a parallel conventional line of the Hokkaido Shinkansen), it can be seen that a total of 273,000 people used it.
* "Transport density" is described in (2) Transport report.
Equivalent to column M "Average passing quantity passengers".
* “Operating income” is described in (5) -2 Iron and track business operating income.
CF column "Iron rail industry operating profit / loss"
* This time, we used the data for FY2018, which is not affected by the spread of the new coronavirus.
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