The issue of food security in the Arab countries was not easy in the normal situation, as these countries were exposed to price fluctuations in the international market, whether in the global food crisis in 2006 and 2007, or in the climate change crisis in 2010.
The same is true in light of the Corona crisis, which continued during 2020 and 2021, as food prices rose significantly, by about 35% during 2021, and the food supply crisis affected the Arab economies negatively.
But the crisis of the Russian war on Ukraine has become more of a threat to the food situation, not only to the Arab countries but to the world in general, although the Arab countries were directly and quickly affected, given that many of them depended on Russia and Ukraine in the management of grains and oils.
According to estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the bill for food imports worldwide will reach $1.8 trillion, an increase of $51 billion over the situation in 2021.
This increase is due to the increase in prices, and not due to the increase in the quantities of food imports. The organization also expects that the importing countries will find it difficult to finance the high costs of food;
Which may affect its ability to withstand high prices.
There is no solution to the crisis of the Russian war on Ukraine in sight, and there are fears that food will be used as a weapon in that war, in light of the conflict between Russia on the one hand and both Europe and America on the other.
But the greatest damage will fall on the extremely poor countries, which suffer from a lack of food, and the number of people suffering from hunger is increasing day by day in light of this crisis.
In the latest report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the countries most affected by the food crisis, especially the high prices, 6 countries were monitored: Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Yemen, Afghanistan and Somalia, a list that includes two Arab countries (Yemen and Somalia). .
The crisis has other repercussions on countries that are classified as middle-income, such as Egypt, whose Finance Minister Mohamed Maait recently stated that the rise in wheat prices and the continued pressure on the local currency will burden the budget by about $3 billion.
Hence, it is necessary for us to shed light on the reality of food security for the Arab countries, especially in light of the expectation and fears of the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program of negative repercussions on food and the widening of the cycle of hunger.
Availability of food in Arab countries
This indicator is one of the important indicators in light of the food crisis that the world has been going through since the Corona pandemic, and with the continuation of the Russian war on Ukraine. and scientific research efforts to expand agricultural and food production.
Hence, we found the importance of this indicator at the Arab level in general, and on Arab countries that suffer from armed conflicts in particular, as well as the conditions imposed by the Russian war on Ukraine regarding the flow of food, as well as the significant contribution to the rise in food prices.
According to the results of this indicator in 2020, we find that there are 5 countries that are the least performing in the availability of food at the Arab level, and they are:
Yemen 27.5%
Sudan 30.8%
Syria 41.3%
Jordan 48.2%
Morocco 51.4%
We note that the three lowest performing countries on the index are countries that suffer from armed conflicts and political instability (Yemen, Sudan, and Syria).
While the 5 best performing countries for this indicator are:
Egypt 75.2%
Saudi Arabia 73%
Qatar 70.7%
Kuwait 68.3%
UAE 66.5%
Hunger Index
The Arab Food Security Status Report for the year 2020, issued by the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, indicated that the phenomenon of hunger and undernourishment increased in many Arab countries, which witnessed cases of instability and unfavorable natural conditions, the spread of drought and the increase in desertification.
In terms of the hunger index, the figures show that the most affected Arab countries according to this indicator are:
Somalia with 50.8%
Syria and Comoros by 42.3%
Yemen with 38.4%
Djibouti 27.4%
Sudan 25.1%
The best performing countries on this indicator were the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, with a percentage of less than 5%.
malnutrition
As for undernourishment in the Arab countries, the highest percentage was in:
Somalia 59.5%
Yemen 45.4%
Iraq 37.5%
Djibouti 16.2%
Sudan 12.3%
The best performing countries on this indicator were:
Algeria with less than 2.5%
Kuwait 2.5%
Tunisia 3%
Saudi Arabia 3.9%
Morocco 4.2%
Egypt 5.4%
Food self-sufficiency
Self-sufficiency in Arab food commodities reflects several things, including: the state of production in the field of food commodities, as well as the nature of natural resources from arable lands as well as irrigation water, and agricultural and food production technology, and from here we found that the state of low self-sufficiency in some food commodities in countries Arabic is due in different proportions to the factors mentioned above.
However, the most important factor is the lack of political will to achieve the goal of a greater percentage of agricultural and food self-sufficiency. Corruption and the mafia importing these commodities impede any reform plans.
It also notes that the continued decline in the rates of agricultural and food self-sufficiency in the Arab countries is worsening year after year, and there is a state of acknowledgment of the fait accompli - as if it is inevitable - despite the experiences of other countries that have succeeded in significantly increasing their agricultural and food production, such as India and China.
At the level of commodities in which the Arab countries achieve self-sufficiency in good proportions, we find the following:
fish 99.3%
Fruit 95.5%
vegetables 94.8%
tubers 91.3%
The Arab problem is to achieve modest self-sufficiency rates in commodities that are major commodities in Arab food consumption, including:
Cereals, with a self-sufficiency rate of 36.8%
vegetable oil 23.8%
sugar 31.4%
Legumes 38.4%
red meat 73.7%
Poultry meat 65.5%
nutritional gap
For many years, Arab countries have been suffering from a food gap, and according to the latest figures, the Arab food gap in 2020 amounted to about $35.3 billion, and cereals represent the major weakness of Arab countries in the field of food gap, as it represents 47.8% of the total value of that gap.
In 2020, the Arab countries' imports of grains amounted to $20.8 billion, and wheat was at the top of the list of cereals in Arab food imports in the same year, with a value of just over $9 billion.
According to the recommendations of experts, addressing the food gap in the Arab countries requires a vertical expansion in the production of cereals and oilseeds of various kinds, as well as improving animal production systems to provide more meat, milk and their products.
The repercussions of the war on food commodities
The clear feature of the Russian-Ukrainian war on food is the rise in its prices, and its contribution to the continuation and exacerbation of the global inflation wave. However, the most important danger is the increase in impediments to the movement of grains and oils from Russia and Ukraine and the use of wheat paper and oils to a large extent in managing the war to confront economic sanctions.
At the same time, Europe, America and most international institutions are working to show Russia's role in the crisis in a large way, and seek to blame Russia for the consequences of the aggravation of the crisis of hunger or food shortage in the world.
The truth will remain incomplete until the 2022 data appear, in order to determine the nature of performance, as well as to evaluate the efforts made to confront the crisis, whether at the global or Arab levels.
However, the Arab scene remains characterized by randomness in the face of the crisis of the Russian war on Ukraine and its repercussions on the region in general and on the food situation in particular, according to observers.
We are facing countries that lack money to obtain their usual food needs because of its high prices, and countries that have money but suffer from problems of supply and supply chains, as well as delays in efforts made to benefit from the scientific accumulation in Arab countries to advance the agricultural and food sectors.