Economists estimate that Tunisia will reap great financial and economic losses as a result of the general strike organized by the Tunisian General Labor Union (the largest and most influential trade union in the country), while others have underestimated its repercussions on the economy, which still has a positive resilience, as they put it.

The Secretary-General of the Tunisian General Labor Union, Noureddine Taboubi, announced in a speech today, Thursday, in front of the union headquarters in the center of the capital, Tunis, the success of the general strike in which hundreds of thousands of workers and employees participated in 159 public institutions, at a rate of about 97%, despite attempts to distort and distort the union, as he put it. .

The current government - led by Najla Boden - did not reach, during previous negotiating sessions, an agreement with the Labor Union, which has great influence in the public sector, and the union found, due to the disruption of negotiations, only the approval of the general strike as a result of the lack of agreement to start negotiations to raise wages for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. .

What is the cost of a general strike?

Today, Thursday, Tunisia woke up to the impact of complete paralysis affecting various vital sectors, including airports, ports, public transport and sensitive institutions that provide direct services to Tunisians, such as the Tunisian Electricity and Gas Company, the Telecom Company, the Tunisian Company for the Exploitation and Distribution of Water and other public utilities.

Regarding his estimates of the cost of losses, economist Rida Shakandali told Al Jazeera Net that the value of Tunisia's losses can be determined by dividing the country's gross domestic product, estimated at 125 billion dinars (40.7 billion dollars) over 365 days, so that the initial estimates of losses are in the range of 351 million dinars (114 Million dollars).

The most affected sectors

The transportation sector is considered the largest sector affected by the general strike, which paralyzed movement, whether at the level of air, sea or land traffic, according to Al-Shakandali, who says that the strike disrupted transporting workers to their work sites, securing trips through airports and ports, and securing exports of goods and others.

This will not be the end of the tunnel, according to the economist, as the general strike will cause a decline in the state’s income from taxes due to the disruption in the extraction of payments, which will increase the difficulties of securing the financial resources necessary to secure the payment of the wages of employees and retirees during the next few days of this June, according to Shakdali.

In light of the difficulties faced by public finances, the state faces major challenges, especially at the level of securing the payment of wages, granting pensioners and securing operating expenses, which makes it sometimes resort to borrowing from local banks - whether in dinars or hard currency - or opening the door for subscription to mobilize resources.

The Tunisian Labor Union announced the success of the strike and recorded a large participation in it (French)

Economic repercussions

Economist Reda Al-Shakandali estimates that the general strike of the labor union will have “negative repercussions” on production and wealth creation, on the mobilization of the state’s own resources, and on the image of the business climate in Tunisia among investors who are increasingly concerned about creating investment in a climate where social peace is lacking and tensions rise.

The most important thing for him is the repercussions of this strike on the progress of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, with which the Tunisian government has been engaged in difficult talks for months, without having so far resulted in an agreement to actually start conducting technical negotiations that will lead to an agreement on granting Tunisia a loan in installments of about 4 billion. dollar.

Shakandali says that the tense relationship between the Tunisian General Labor Union and the current government due to its failure to implement previous commitments will make it difficult for it to convince the IMF of its reform program, in the absence of any consensus and partnership with its social partner, the Tunisian General Labor Union, which expresses reservations about its program.

Tunisia is in dire need of borrowing from the International Monetary Fund to finance its budget deficit, as it needs - according to Al-Shakandali - about 24 billion dinars (7.9 billion dinars) to finance the budget deficit of the past and current years. The steps of the Lebanese scenario," according to his opinion.

Strike against tourism

In turn, Tunisian Airlines announced yesterday evening, Wednesday, the suspension of all its scheduled flights for this day, coinciding with the strike, which directly affected the transfer of foreign tourists and the community residing abroad to Tunisia, according to the economic expert, Mohamed Sadiq Jabnoun, who believes that the tourism sector is the most affected by general strike.

Jabnoun tells Al Jazeera Net that the initial losses of the various sectors affected by the strike cannot be measured immediately, and that the matter is entrusted to the National Institute of Statistics, but he acknowledges the heavy repercussions of the strike on tourism due to the transport disruption that air and land transport companies can overcome in the coming days.

Reduce losses

Gibboun underestimated the depth of the financial and economic effects of a one-day strike, explaining that it is not possible to talk about losses at the level of exporting goods abroad as it extends over long decades, nor can it affect investment because such strikes are common in advanced countries such as Europe. According to him.

He acknowledged the existence of difficult economic conditions exacerbated by the war crisis in Ukraine and the high prices of oil and priority materials, but he affirmed that the Tunisian economy is still resilient in the face of all these crises, but it needs development to create wealth by turning to renewable energies and industries with high added value.

Positive resilience of the economy

"The Tunisian economy achieved during the first quarter of this year a growth of 2.4%, and this means that it was technically able to withstand all crises," said Gibboun, stressing that the economic conditions currently need a peaceful social environment and strong profitability at work more than ever. He went on to the success of negotiations with the IMF.

He expected that the negotiations between Tunisia and the IMF would proceed in the right way based on its demands related to controlling public expenditures, restructuring the support system in line with its efficiency, restructuring public institutions and improving the investment climate.

Gebnoun said that the IMF seeks to avoid the exacerbation of the high economic crisis, especially on the countries most vulnerable to its effects.

"The International Monetary Fund will carry out a proactive process to help the countries most vulnerable to the global economic crisis, and we can see positive developments in the negotiations between Tunisia and the Fund," he added.