The looming “food crisis” What will happen to food in Japan and around the world?

June 16th, 20:13

Now, the "food shock" is attacking the world.

International prices of wheat and corn soared due to Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.

In Japan, it turns out that major food and beverage manufacturers have already raised their prices, or that there are more than 10,000 products that they plan to raise in the future, and the burden on households is only getting heavier.

In addition, the food crisis is even more serious in Africa and the Middle East, which have been plagued by food shortages due to the effects of drought and civil war.

The dark shadow of rising food prices extends to the scene of support that connects the lives of children suffering from conflict and poverty.

It is the reality of the "food crisis" that spreads in Japan and around the world.

(Ayumi Yanagisawa, Reporter, Network News Department / Tamura Galaxy, Reporter, International Department)

"Summer of food price increase" burden

Flour, bread, cup ramen, ham, soft drinks, etc.

The food and food price increases that we eat every day continue.

The credit bureau, Teikoku Databank, has surveyed the major food and beverage manufacturers in the country.

As of June 1, the price has been raised this time, or the number of products scheduled to be raised in the future is more than 10,700 items in total.

It is said that the number of products scheduled to be raised will reach about 5,000 items from June to August alone, and it is likely to be the "summer of price increases".

Invasion of Russia spurs price increases

There are various causes for food and beverage price increases.

Since last year, there are many agricultural products whose prices have been on the rise due to weather factors and tight supply and demand.

However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spurred this rise.

Have a look at this.

Changes in wheat and corn futures prices during the period from February 1st to June 15th, before the Russian military invasion.

Wheat has risen by up to 73% and corn futures prices have risen by up to 32%.

Wheat, the symbol of the Ukrainian flag ...

The Ukrainian blue and yellow flags are said to symbolize the blue sky and wheat fields.

That should be the case, Ukraine is the world's fifth largest wheat exporter in 2020 (FAO = Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).

However, the Russian Navy's fleet has blocked the Black Sea and Ukraine has been forced into a situation where it cannot export wheat.

The southern city of Odesa.

Ukraine's largest port facing the Black Sea, which connects to the Middle East via the Mediterranean Sea, has become a hub for grain exports from Ukraine, also known as the world's breadbasket.

But now, wheat that cannot be exported is piled up in the warehouse at the port of Odesa.

Organizations made up of Ukrainian farmers and exporters cannot hide their resentment.

Chairman of the Ukrainian Grain Inspection Association Mikhail Gorbachev

"Before the invasion of Ukraine, 98% was exported from multiple ports facing the Black Sea. Now the ports of the Black Sea are closed and only about one-fifth of what they were before. It cannot be exported. We are trying to carry it by land such as trains and trucks instead of ships, but due to the shortage of containers for carrying grains and equipment problems, the amount that can be exported is limited. "

The breadbasket of central Zhytomyr Oblast, which will be harvested in mid-July, has a bright green wheat field, but it is said that it is not possible to export due to the naval blockade and it is not decided what to do after harvesting.

Farmers are disappointed when domestic inventories are overwhelming and unpriced.

Ukrainian farmer Mikola Shan

"I don't know how to trade because the current (domestic) grain prices are too low. I don't have the money for future production because the harvest last year is unsold. is"

On the other hand, Russia, which is invading the military, is also a large agricultural country.

Wheat exports are the largest in the world, and corn is the 11th in the world.

The decline in exports from Russia due to the effects of economic sanctions from around the world, and the fact that Russia has restricted its own exports of food and fertilizers to Western countries have also spurred the rise in global grain prices. It is believed to have been.

Invasion causes food crisis

Russia's aggression is about to cause a serious food crisis in Africa and the Middle East, which were originally plagued by food shortages such as drought.

Food support halved

"Without flour, you can't sleep. I'm at a loss how to bring food home. Safety isn't just about being relieved from the war, it's about being at home and your family. It also means that there is food to protect children from hunger. "

This is a man who lives in a camp in Yemen in the Middle East, where the civil war continues.

Three years ago, I came to this camp to escape the war.

At home, two children are waiting, but daily food can only rely on the support of the WFP = World Food Program.

WFP has relied on Russia and Ukraine to import wheat for its food aid.

Due to the invasion of Ukraine, it is necessary to secure wheat from another country, and grain prices are soaring.

Due to the lack of funds, we are forced to reduce food assistance.

About 13 million people in Yemen receive WFP food assistance.

Of these, 5 million have given priority to food, saying they are on the verge of falling into "hunger," a situation where food shortages can lead to death.

However, from this month, we had to reduce the amount of food we distribute to less than half.

The remaining 8 million people are said to be able to support only 25% of the food they should be distributing.

Richard Reagan, President of WFP Yemen Office

"We have a duty to help those who need food, but it's very difficult in this environment. We're very hungry for the reduced support of some people. I'm feeding food to those who are, but the difference between those who are greatly reduced in support and those who aren't is very small. It's not easy to decide. "

" When I visited a clinic in Yemen, I died at any moment. I was told that there were such children who died without food when they returned. A humanitarian catastrophe is happening here. "

Even malnourished children ...

Somalia in East Africa is suffering from a serious food crisis due to repeated droughts.

Ready-to-eat "nutritional diets" are given to children who are thin and seriously malnourished, who are at risk of life.

It is a paste-like highly nutritious food made from peanuts, oil, sugar, powdered milk, etc. It can be stored at room temperature and can be eaten simply by opening the package, so it has been used in many support sites.

Of the children in need of these nutritional diets, those under the age of 5 with "severe wasting", which refers to a condition in which they are undernourished and have weakened immune function due to being too light for their height. There are 13.6 million children in the world.

One in five deaths in this age group is due to severe wasting, and proper treatment is directly linked to life and death.

However, the price of oil contained in raw materials has soared.

The price of therapeutic food has already risen by 16%.

UNICEF is threatening to put more than 500,000 children at risk of life as it stands.

UNICEF spokeswoman James Elder

"The biggest concern is that famine may occur. Many children will die. Conflicts occur between Ukraine and Russia, which were the" bread baskets "for developing countries. This has a serious impact on the most vulnerable children without any responsibility. "

The food crisis turns into a division of international politics ...

The food crisis is worried about prolongation.

Experts familiar with food security have analyzed that wrinkles are especially coming to developing countries.

Tim Benton, Research Director, Royal Institute for International Affairs, UK

"I was wondering if the impact of the new Corona would cause inflation around the world due to imbalances in supply and demand, and each country could afford to feed its people. The

Ukrainian War broke out.

Even if food prices rise, wealthy countries can continue to buy grain, but poor countries have had a hard time buying food, which makes it even more burdensome. Humanitarian assistance will also be expensive and more painful. "

Taking the rise in food prices in 2010 as an example, Benton warns that it could complicate international politics and create major divisions.

The price hike in 2010, as Benton points out.

In Russia and Ukraine this summer, the damage caused by the drought has expanded due to the record-breaking heat.

Due to the great impact on the production of grains such as wheat, barley and corn, export bans and restrictions were imposed one after another, and international transaction prices soared.

In the Middle East and North Africa, protests against rising food prices and riots for bread occurred one after another, and combined with dissatisfaction with the previous administration, it became one of the triggers for the spread of anti-government movements in Arab countries. It has also been pointed out.

"The 2010 price hike was caused by a loss of yields in areas similar to today, which led to riots in many countries," said

Tim Benton, director of research at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in the United Kingdom .

Caused the "Arab Spring", leading to a geopolitical reconstruction of the Middle East and an increase in the number of immigrants flowing across the Mediterranean into Europe

. It changed and led to the rise of populism. Current tensions in Europe, such as Britain's departure from the EU, have arisen over the last decade in response to the same problems we see today. It's a thing. "

Benton expects food prices to continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, as Russia continues to deepen its confrontation with Western countries, there is a danger that the economic block will be divided into two parts, east and west, as it was during the Cold War.

"If this war escalate, it is reasonable to see that at least the multilateral cooperative world will be divided into two blocks, the eastern and the western. This is simply how to deal with the crisis at hand. It's not just about that, there are significant changes that will affect us for years to come. "

Natural "food" was not so

The prices of delicious foods increase one after another or disappear from the product shelves without worrying about them.

It makes me realize that the happiness that I took for granted was not the norm in this food shock.

Even life-threatening is imminent in Africa and the Middle East.

How should the world respond to this crisis?

There is no magical stick that can be solved immediately, but from a national point of view, it will be more important for each country to strengthen food security such as "improvement of self-sufficiency rate" and "diversification of import destinations". Probably.

From our consumer's point of view, it may be necessary to first understand the complicated food supply and distribution system and change the consciousness to eliminate waste as much as possible.

* Soaring food prices and food shortages facing Japan and the world.

We will continue to draw the current state of the crisis from various perspectives and continue to serialize it as the "Food Shock" series.

Network Press Department Reporter

Ayumi Yanagisawa

Joined in 2008

After working at Akita Bureau, Ishinomaki Press Office, International Department, Cairo Branch, etc.

International Department Reporter

Tamura Galaxy

Joined in 2013

After working at Tsu Bureau and Chiba Bureau, he is currently affiliated from 2018.