Text/Li Xiaoyu
French President Emmanuel Macron recently said in a speech at the European Defence Exhibition that France and Europe have entered a wartime economic state.
In this state, Europeans can no longer live at the rhythm and manner of a year ago.
What was the "state of the war economy" like?
Why did Macron make this judgment?
What is the impact of Europe's entry into a wartime economic state on China?
What is the "war economic state"?
At present, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European economy is facing unprecedented challenges.
Inflationary pressure continued to increase.
Right now, food, fuel and electricity prices are skyrocketing in Europe.
The price of flour has doubled in Belgium, and the price of bread has gone up with it, said Maria de Maizi, deputy director of the Brussels Institute for European and Global Economics.
Recession risks are also rising.
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have recently lowered their forecasts for global economic growth in 2022, and believe that the economic growth rate of the euro zone will further slow down.
Chen Wenling, chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine not only caused panic in the European capital market, but also affected its economic fundamentals. What is more serious is the energy crisis, food crisis, refugee crisis, and supply chain crisis. hit Europe again.
Chen Fengying, former director of the Institute of World Economics at the Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with China News Agency that the reason why Macron said that Europe has entered a "wartime economic state" is that although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is on the battlefield in Ukraine, But the spillover effect has spread to the whole world, and the battle lines are all over the world, and Europe is the main victim.
Chen Fengying said that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe is no longer able to produce and consume normally, and the normal rhythm of people's lives has also been disrupted.
Due to a series of sanctions and counter-sanctions against Russia, Europe has encountered great difficulties in controlling resources. Commodities such as grain and oil and gas cannot be traded as freely as in the past, and European industrial and supply chains have been artificially cut off.
In Chen Fengying's view, Europe is now in a situation different from the real war period in the past, but it is more embarrassing than the war period, because Europe lacks strategic autonomy and cannot make independent decisions on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The bigger problem is that, considering that Europe has determined to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, even if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends, it will be difficult for Europe to get rid of the inflationary dilemma caused by soaring energy prices immediately.
The worst result is that the European economy continues to slide into stagflation.
Where are the opportunities for China?
The EU is China's second largest trading partner and an important source of investment.
What does Europe's entry into a "war economic state" mean for China?
China's exports to Europe may be further under pressure.
In the first five months of this year, the total value of China-EU trade increased by 7% year-on-year, lower than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade in the same period.
Wang Shouwen, vice minister of commerce and deputy international trade negotiator, said recently that the weak recovery of the world economy and the rising inflationary pressures in economies such as the United States and Europe will affect overseas demand.
Chen Wenling said that the EU economy itself is very fragile, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made it worse.
China's economy, especially its trade with these countries and regions, will be indirectly affected, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine itself will also affect the process of China's joint construction of the "Belt and Road" with these countries and regions.
However, some analysts believe that the challenges facing the European economy may help promote China-EU cooperation.
Chen Fengying said that when the economy is in an unprecedented predicament, Europe is bound to find partners to get out of the crisis.
There is no conflict of security interests between China and Europe, and trade and investment and other economic and trade cooperation are closely linked. China and Europe can fully strengthen cooperation under the new situation.
She suggested that China should earnestly expand its opening-up and further attract global factors, resources and industries to gather in its own country, so as to provide possibilities for China-EU economic and trade cooperation.