The far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour fell from the start in the 4th district of Var, where he was trying to obtain a first term.
According to Erwan Lecœur, sociologist specializing in the far right and member of the Pacte Laboratory, Reconquête!
was oversold in the media compared to what the party really weighs in public opinion.
But for the political scientist specializing in the far right Jean-Yves Camus, Eric Zemmour does not intend to stop there and is already planning for the Europeans in 2024.
The disappointment is at the level of his initial enthusiasm.
"I won't stop there," cried Eric Zemmour again on the evening of the first round of the presidential election, after obtaining 7.7% of the vote and hoping to perform in the legislative elections.
But the president of the far-right Reconquest!
suffered a new setback, eliminated in the first round in the 4th constituency of Var.
He came third with 23.19% of the votes cast, behind outgoing LREM MP Sereine Mauborgne (28.51%) and RN candidate Philippe Lottiaux (24.74%).
His main lieutenants did no better than him.
Guillaume Peltier, Stanislas Rigault, Damien Rieu and Philippe Vardon also missed their qualification for the second round.
A defeat which is explained first of all by the very nature of the ballot, as Erwan Lecœur, sociologist specializing in the far right and member of the Pacte Laboratory, explains: “The legislative elections are never favorable to the challengers”.
“In the presidential election, Eric Zemmour had saved the furniture, because a score of 7.07% was not so bad for a young team.
But in the legislative elections, we do not vote for a man, but for local candidates, ”adds political scientist specializing in the far right Jean-Yves Camus.
"We did not see him during this sequence, he had gone to the fields"
The Reconquest Strategy!
during this legislative campaign is also in question.
“We did not see him during this sequence, he had gone to the fields.
Perhaps because he is a Bonapartist and considered the legislative elections as a secondary ballot, ”says Jean-Yves Camus.
The far-right polemicist also made the mistake of choosing his constituency very late (the announcement was made on May 12), which did not leave him much time to forge a link with the local electorate.
And very often, voters penalize last-minute parachutists.
More generally, Reconquest!
paid for the lack of local roots of its candidates.
The legislative elections also acted as a political revealer, according to Erwan Lecœur: “Eric Zemmour was a media object from July 2021, which distorted the analysis of many political scientists.
But reconquest!
is a micro-party with no real electoral base.
It represents an elitist avant-garde of the identity right, but it is not a popular and social movement established locally, as is the RN ”.
The fact that the latter refuses to form an alliance with Reconquest!
also sounded like a cleaver, believes Erwan Lecœur: “It precipitated his fall.
»
A role still in front of the camera?
This spanking in the legislative elections has consequences for Zemmour.
“If he had been present at the Assembly, he could have used it as a podium to play the tribunes”, underlines Jean-Yves Camus.
"The political phenomenon Zemmour died on June 12", slice Erwan Lecœur.
What will happen now for the polemicist?
Is his political career over?
Will he once again become a controversial columnist for CNews and editorial writer for
Le Figaro
?
Erwan Lecœur thinks so: “He will do it to exist in the debate.
Because he has no mandate and will need a professional activity.
Jean-Yves Camus seriously doubts it: “You don't become a columnist again when you've gone to the other side of the mirror”.
His ex-CNews colleague Christine Kelly agrees: “He moved on.
He begins his life as a politician and will not return to CNews.
It is not planned, ”she told
Le Figaro.
Heading for the Europeans
According to Jean-Yves Camus, Eric Zemmour does not intend to stop there: “Reconquest!
is betting on an agenda that goes from 2022 to 2027. Eric Zemmour has an objective that is based on the long term”.
The main interested party announced his intentions during his defeat speech on Sunday: “Five years of hard work await us.
We are ready !
Long live the Reconquest!, Long live the Republic and above all, long live France!
".
The next political deadline for him will be the European elections scheduled for 2024, where he has a better chance, due to the proportional ballot, of obtaining elected representatives.
"This will be the last election in which he can prove that he has a place on the political spectrum", indicates the political scientist.
Until then,
Eric Zemmour should work hard to consolidate his party and install it permanently in the political landscape.
Because his movement only claims to have 130,000 members currently.
“He can make a living with his party with around fifty members and hope to obtain 5% in the European elections”, estimates Erwan Lecœur.
Will he try to rally RN dissidents?
This task should be difficult in the perspective of rather correct results for the RN in the legislative elections "He can only hope to recover those who will have friction with the leadership of the party led by Marine Le Pen", predicts Jean-Yves Camus.
“The dissidents who came to join him missed out on a deputy post.
He is unlikely to find many other political suicides.
And there are even strong risks that he will lose militants.
Because we don't forgive failures within the radical right, ”adds Erwan Lecœur.
As for the long-term existence of Reconquête!, the game is far from won, according to Jean-Yves Camus.
“Nowhere in Europe do two parties share the niche of the radical right.
To occupy this segment, Reconquest!
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Eric Zemmour
Reconquest!
(political party)
Legislative elections 2022
Elections
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