Cairo -

The Civil Democratic Movement announced its refusal to form a dialogue department called by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi about 50 days ago, in the first collective reaction of the Egyptian opposition parties at home.

The unprecedented political movement in Egypt during the era of Sisi - who came to power in the summer of 2014 - raises questions about the chances of success of political dialogue in opening the way for parties after years of absence and launching a party map - according to observers - without opposition and based on loyalty only.

And last Wednesday, the National Dialogue Department announced the start of its first session in the first week of next July, after Sisi announced on April 26 the launch of a dialogue between all political forces "without discrimination or exception."

On the other hand, the civil movement announced its non-acceptance of the previous declaration, noting that it represented a unilateral approach that broke away from what was agreed upon in the previous consultation sessions, in reference to its objection to the choices of the dialogue management and organization, in addition to the slowdown in implementing previous promises regarding the release of a number of Prisoners of conscience, according to press reports.

In contrast to skepticism about the possibility of a breakthrough and a possible improvement in the Egyptian political sphere, there are preliminary indicators put forward by observers from the reality of the presidential initiative indicating that it was made public and was not subject to external dictates for several local, regional and international considerations.

With regard to the continuous media attack on the opposition abroad and the Muslim Brotherhood, and the confirmation of its exclusion from the scene - as repeatedly confirmed by media close to the regime - some attributed it to the zero-sum struggle equation between these parties and the authority.

And from the reality of the map of political parties in Egypt, most of them - according to indicators and facts - live in a state of absence, marginalization and weakness, as the matter did not depend on the absence of parties affiliated with the political Islam movement with the solution or prompting them to freeze, but rather affected a number of civil parties that emerged from the womb of the January revolution January 2011, in contrast to the emergence of parties affiliated with the regime that currently control Parliament.

All of this raises questions about the ability of the parties participating in the political dialogue to maneuver and impose their demands, and will they succeed in exploiting the matter to open the public sphere again, or are we witnessing a cosmetic state of politics between the authorities and the parties?

Indicators of détente

From the reality of the "National Dialogue" initiative, academic and political analyst Khairy Omar saw that the initial indications indicate the possibility of a breakthrough and a possible improvement in the general political sphere in the country.

The most prominent of these indicators - according to Omar's talk to Al Jazeera Net - is that the initiative came public and was launched by the president himself, in addition to initiating and calling for dialogue, and reviewing discussions around it.

He stressed that these indicators represent a trend that parties can build upon in political dialogue, in overcoming problems and participating in future options, as well as looking into the paths and outcomes of partisan pluralism and addressing the restrictions it faces.

Omar believed that the call for national dialogue on the part of the presidency was not subject to external pressures, pointing to Western pressures in previous years (in the human rights file, for example) that were merely pressures that were retracted and not humanitarian principles.

The head of the Reform and Development Party, Muhammad Anwar al-Sadat, marvels at his exclusion from the national dialogue and his being prevented from appearing in the media, while the party affirms its demands: the release of prisoners, freedom of expression, an end to government control of parties, the independence of the judiciary, and an end to the monopoly of economic activities.

pic.twitter.com/v4yNzEzfG9

— Ammar Ali Hassan (@ammaralihassan) June 11, 2022

maneuverability

Regarding the presence of opposition parties on the ground, Academic Omar said that the partisan experience did not exist nearly 50 years ago;

For legal reasons, including the conditions for establishing or controlling party activities, which restricted the parties' ability to move.

An important indication that the political analyst touched is that the parties themselves did not provide strong and efficient elites, and the problem here is mainly from the parties themselves, not the pressures of the system.

When asked about the extent to which the parties participating in the dialogue were able to maneuver, or that their demands would stop at the ceiling of human rights demands such as the release of detainees, Omar held the parties responsible for the limited political horizon, whether in dealing with the problems of the state or the issue of detainees.

He said that the political level of the parties is modest and does not have a clear role, and that their ambition, which they seek to build upon, is a democratic ideal and unrealistic, according to the consultations of some about the transfer of power and the neutrality of the army in a central state like Egypt, as he put it.

Commenting on partisan criticism of the "National Dialogue" administration, Omar believed that it would have been better for the parties to present a vision that would improve political life, instead of taking a position on the party that would manage the dialogue.

On the other hand, Omar expected that the regime would open the way for the parties to take advantage of the initiative, explaining that the invitation was sent to all parties and personalities, and there are two weeks since its launch, and things are moving towards openness, but he added, "The problem remains with who (will attend)? And what will be proposed?"

On the reasons for excluding the Brotherhood, political Islam currents, and the opposition abroad from the political dialogue, Omar linked them to the zero-sum struggle between the authority and the Brotherhood for decades, and regarding the opposition abroad, he said that the problem lies in the negotiating relationship and rivalry between the two parties and the latter’s desire for the regime to leave itself.

glimmer of hope

Hopeful that the political dialogue will be "a glimmer of hope to create liquidity in the current movement", the Assistant Secretary-General of the Conservative Party, Magdy Hamdan, believes that the initiative will not significantly open the public sphere to political parties, and is not expected to reach the state it was in after the January 25 revolution. January 2011.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Hamdan ruled out that the political dialogue would be a cosmetic case for the regime, noting that the authority is the one who advocates, and has become more open to the opposition parties, which may find that they have a correct vision of the current crises after realizing the harm of the loyalist parties.

The Egyptian opposition politician attributed the current reality of the parties to the general despair that pervades the country, in reference to the legislative and executive decisions approved by Parliament in recent years.

On the extent to which the parties participating in the political dialogue are able to maneuver in front of the authority, Hamdan stressed that the ceiling is completely far from the issue of detainees, noting that there is talk of a comprehensive political reform in a circulating document, which includes changing the current political methodology, and amending the laws of exercising political and parliamentary rights that came In a parliament without opposition, in addition to putting forward ideas on the transfer of power and the opening of the political climate.

Hamdan denied the complete absence of the partisan opposition in Egypt, pointing out that the Conservative Party - to which he belongs - is one of the largest parties that opposed the ruling regime, and rejected previous constitutional amendments that extended the term of Sisi's term from 4 to 6 years, and allowed him to run for a new term after that. Another 6 years ending in 2030.

Dr..

Ayman Nour: #Egypt needs a true national dialogue with international and international standards for the idea of ​​national dialogue pic.twitter.com/NbBu2EaBod

- Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) June 11, 2022

fragile party soil

In turn, writer Imad El-Din Hussein asked a sarcastic question: What is the strongest opposition party in Egypt?

To respond to her absence in favor of social media, as the latter has gained strength, influence and a tangible position, not only among people, but has become influential in making some decisions, or reversing some of them and on issues that preoccupied public opinion.

In an article in Al-Shorouk newspaper, Hussein said that the traditional answer to the question is to mention the number of parties, the size of their masses, and the seats that this or that party obtains in the various elections.

He added that the partisan soil is very fragile, and since the last parliamentary elections witnessed the entry of many parties into one list, it is difficult to objectively judge the real strength of existing parties, despite the presence of more than 100 officially registered and recognized parties.

The second answer, which Hussein considered unorthodox, says that with the weakness of political action in its traditional sense, and with the weakness of most parties, or the merging of some of them with parties closer in their positions to the government, many parties have turned into mere banners and deserted headquarters, except for the party leader and his assistants and some his family.

Amr Adib: Egypt is entering the national dialogue in the coming days.. Please do not start the dialogue unless you agree on everything (I know why)

You can watch the full episode on Shahid (watch for free) https://t.co/BcuGHcZyP2# The story# MBCMASR pic.twitter.com/H8UojO4o6L

— The Story (@Elhekayashow) June 11, 2022