MOSCOW - For

about a week, breaking news was absent from the combat zones in the city of Severodonetsk in the Lugansk region, which gave the Ukrainian media an excuse to talk about the halt in the progress of the Russian forces, falling into "tactical traps", depleting their resources of missiles and ammunition, losing a clear and organized strategy, and incurring heavy losses. , before the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the losses of the Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk amounted to 90% of the personnel, after clearing the population areas, and that the fighting was taking place in the industrial area.

According to Russian experts, the control of the city, located in Lugansk province, is of vital importance for the Russian forces, as its capture would significantly affect the morale of the Ukrainian forces, as happened after the surrender of Ukrainian and foreign fighters at the Azovstal factory in Mariupol.

Moreover, from the point of view of tactical operations, the capture of Severodonetsk will mean the emptying of a large number of Russian tactical battle groups for the battle for the capture of Kramatorsk and Slaviansk.

Howitzers of the pro-Russian forces open fire in Severodonetsk (Reuters)

Stalingrad again

Although Russian military observers acknowledge that the Ukrainian defenses in Severodonetsk are still strong, this does not preclude the assumption that Moscow is determined to achieve a flawless victory in controlling the strategic city, because the second stage aims to encircle, cut and destroy the Ukrainian groups in the entire Donbass region, as well as It happened during World War II when the Soviet Army surrounded German forces near Stalingrad in early 1943, beginning a strategic turning point in the course of hostilities.

This coincides with changes in the military command of the Russian forces in Ukraine, which opened the doors wide to the question of possible changes in combat tactics in the theater of operations in Ukraine.

Military researcher Viktor Litovkin is inclined to believe that the recent changes to the military leadership of the Russian forces in Ukraine may be followed by a change in the approach and tactics of conducting operations.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, he says that accordingly, it will not be necessary to reach targets inside the Ukrainian depth through artillery or marches and landing using helicopters, but through tactics that bypass cities and leave Ukrainian garrisons in the depth before their siege and attack with precise targeting operations carried out by special forces in Reconnaissance and sabotage tasks within the "enemy" lines.

Litovkin adds that there is no need to worry about the timing of ending special operations, adding that they move according to strategic goals.

In response to a question about Russian forces not yet entering the vital cities of Ukraine, Litovkin asked, "Who said that Russia's plans include the capture of Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities?"

Litovkin asserts that no one knows the plans of the Russian commander in chief, and that so far there is only a vague idea about them, and that the nature of the course of recent operations, specifically the battles of Novodonetsk, clearly indicates the use of the tactic of luring the forces and resources of the Ukrainian side into the perimeter and depth of residential communities to defend it, which is What has already been achieved, before pounce on it and cut off the necessary ways for its withdrawal.


Loss Reduction

In turn, military affairs analyst Igor Korotchenko said that rushing to achieve field successes for the Russian forces is not what is required in the current circumstances, but rather to reduce "our losses to a minimum," stressing at the same time that the defeat of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass is very close.

According to him, the Russian forces will continue to use the traditional strategy of encircling the "enemy" forces, keeping them in place, and destroying command posts, adding that changes in the Russian military strategy began before that, after Moscow realized the failure of the bet that Kyiv would conclude an agreement that would It included Ukraine's neutral status, its non-joining NATO and any other military blocs "directed against Russia".

Korotchenko continues that moving to "starve" and deplete the Ukrainian forces is the tactic being implemented, as indicated by the nature of the battles with the Ukrainian side, which was evident in the sudden seizure of large areas in Novodonetsk, after the Ukrainian forces were surrounded there, and they ran out of ammunition and fuel. , so that the tanks will not be able to move and shoot.

Korotchenko adds that "when everything is over for them, it will be possible to enter the city already," and continue the battles until the return of Donetsk and Lugansk to their historical administrative borders, which, in his opinion, is being implemented in stages and systematically.

At the same time, the Russian expert does not rule out that Moscow, in parallel with the special operation to control Donbass, will open a second front in southern Ukraine, considering that this would weaken the forces of the Ukrainian army.

Korotchenko points out that there are reports of a Russian military presence in those areas, especially in Kherson, which may mean the start of a simultaneous attack from there as well, according to him.