In 2017, LREM and its allies managed to make Ile-de-France their own backyard thanks to the Macron dynamic and the division of the left.
Five years later, it's no longer the same salad.
The Macron label, if it remains a carrier, is no longer so, and the union on the left should allow Nupes to recover constituencies lost in 2017, particularly in Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis.
Some candidate ministers thus find themselves in a delicate situation, such as Clément Beaune in the 7th district of Paris or even Amélie de Montchalin, in the 6th district of Essonne.
The presidential camp will be on the defensive for the next legislative elections in Ile-de-France, for the 1st round this Sunday and the 2nd on June 19.
Mainly because LREM and its allies had won almost everything in 2017 with 13 out of 18 deputies in Paris, 10 out of 13 in Hauts-de-Seine and even 11 out of 12 in Yvelines.
It will therefore be difficult for the presidential party to do better.
Doing as well will already be a victory since the opposition is stronger than five years ago, especially with the union of the left.
The RN is generally confined to low scores in the region while LR is in the unknown after the catastrophic score of Valérie Pécresse in the presidential election.
Come on, we're taking you on a tour of Ile-de-France of the constituencies to watch.
Paris
In the capital, are almost guaranteed to re-enlist, for LREM, Sylvain Maillard (1st) *, Gilles Legendre (2nd), former president of the LREM group in the Assembly, Olivia Grégoire (12th), government spokesperson, and Danièle Obono for Nupes (17th).
The union of the left should be able to resume without too much difficulty constituencies 5, 6, 9 and 16 where are therefore respectively well placed, Julien Bayou, boss of EELV, Sophia Chikirou, shadow adviser of LFI, Sandrine Rousseau (EELV) and Sarah Legrain.
It may be less easy than expected for Stanislas Guérini, the Minister of Transformation and Public Service, who is standing against Léa Balage El Mariky (Nupes) in the 3rd constituency where the left has accumulated nearly 41% of the votes. vote in the first round of the presidential election against 37% for Macron.
It will be very tight in the 7th district for the Minister in charge of Europe, Clément Beaune, who faces the Nupes Caroline Mécary and where Mélenchon made 31.3% of the votes in the first round against 36.4% for Macron.
LREM MP Laetitia Avia will also be under pressure in the 8th, as will Pierre-Yves Bournazel in the 18th where he faces the media Aymeric Caron for Nupes.
The 10th and 11th constituencies could, for their part, switch to the left in the event of a strong Nupes push.
Note that in the 11th, the left union candidate is none other than Olivia Polski, assistant in charge of trade and reputed to be close to Anne Hidalgo.
Another close friend of the mayor, Lamia El Aaraje, presents herself as a dissident against Danielle Simonnet (LFI) in the 15th district.
Finally LR will try to keep the 4th and 14th constituencies,
Essone
In the department, LREM will try to recover the 5th constituency where the deputy Cédric Villani has veered to the left, which is rather rare in political life, except perhaps François Mitterrand.
The king of algebra will be a candidate for re-election under the Nupes banner but will face him Paul Midy, former campaign manager of Benjamin Griveaux and Agnès Buzyn at the last municipal elections in Paris.
But it will not be easy since in the first round of the presidential election, the left totals as much as Macron (around 36%).
In the camp opposite, it will not be easy either for Amélie de Montchalin, Minister for Ecological Transition, in the 6th district.
She faces Jérôme Guedj, already a local deputy so well established and especially in a constituency where Mélenchon has done better than Macron.
Otherwise,
Hauts-de-Seine
Favorable ground for Ensemble (LREM and its allies) especially since Constance Le Grip elected in 2017 under the LR banner (6th) represents herself but in the colors of LREM while Thierry Solère (9th) joined Macron for a few years earlier.
The Republicans will therefore have difficulty obtaining even a seat in this department where they once reigned supreme.
The left should keep the 1st constituency and could tip the 11th and 7th.
Seine-Saint-Denis
Paradise or almost for Nupes since the entire staff of LFI should be able to re-enlist, namely Alexis Corbière (7th), Eric Cocquerel (1st), Clémentine Autain (11th) or even Bastien Lachaud (6th).
Nupes should also be able to recover the 3, 8 and 12th constituencies held by Together.
Finally, Jean-Christophe Lagarde, president of the UDI, will he manage to keep his seat in the 5th district?
A vote to follow because stands in front of him the cathodic lawyer Raquel Garrido for Nupes.
Yvelines
In the Yvelines where LREM and the Modem had obtained 11 seats out of 12 before a partial legislative (11th) won by LR in 2020 following the resignation of Nadia Hai when she entered the government, we do not expect big changes in view of the results of the presidential election.
The left could in fact recover the two constituencies held by LR, the 11th therefore, where Benoît Hamon had been elected deputy in 2012 and the 8th, around Mantes-la-Jolie, where Mélenchon won 37.9% of the votes in the first round.
Val de Marne
LREM and its ally Modem won in 2017 in 7 of the 11 constituencies.
It will be complicated to keep them all because Nupes could well recover the 2nd, 7th and 11th where Mélenchon has, each time, done more than Macron in the presidential election.
It will therefore be complicated for Roxana Maracineanu, former Minister of Sports, who faces in the 7th Rachel Keke for Nupes.
Not easy either in the 3rd constituency where Laurent Saint-Marin, LREM leader in the last regional, is not going to be a super favorite against the young Louis Boyard in a constituency where Mélenchon was ahead of Macron by 10 points.
Val d'Oise
It will be complicated for Ensemble to repeat the 2017 box with 9 out of 10 constituencies. Indeed, in four constituencies (5th, 8th, 9th and 10th), Mélenchon won more than 35% of the votes in the first round, even exceeding 50% in the 8th.
François Pupponi (MoDem) therefore has trouble facing Carlos Martens Bilongo (Nupes).
Finally Aurélien Taché who made the same transfer as Cédric Villani should be able to re-enter without too much difficulty in the 10th district.
Seine et Marne
Together could well succeed in keeping its five seats even if it will be difficult in the 10th constituency against the union of the left.
Olivier Faure, boss of the PS, should be re-elected quietly in the 11th district.
Watch the RN vote in a department where Marine Le Pen won a lot of votes, even ahead of Emmanuel Macron in the second round in the 4th constituency.
That of Christian Jacob, boss of LR, who does not represent himself and leaves the hand to Isabelle Périgault.
Not obvious as a baptism of fire.
* For ease of reading, the constituency will simply be designated by its number
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Ile-de-France
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Nudes
The Republic on the March (LREM)