Washington returns to Somalia... the world's policeman in Africa again

With the arrival of President "Joe Biden" to the White House in 2021, and the emergence of the features of his strategy to reduce the US military presence abroad, which is known as the policy of ending "eternal wars", Somalis have confirmed that former President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw US forces from their lands It will remain.

This feeling was quickly confirmed when Washington withdrew its forces from Afghanistan and ended its combat missions in Iraq, so Biden's decision to return American forces to Somalia in mid-May 2022 came as a surprise to the world, and to the Somalis themselves.

The withdrawal of US forces about a year ago from Somalia imposed new risks that made the Americans acknowledge that the rotating presence that replaced the permanent presence strategy did not achieve its goals, but rather increased the security risks to the American forces during their entry and exit from the country, and at the same time disrupted the training of the forces Somali as a result of the constant change of American trainers.

The United States in Somalia

At the beginning of the 1990s, Somalis found themselves drenched in blood as a result of Al-Shabab attacks and the great struggle for power at the time, in addition to a severe famine that made their country the headlines of international news, which has been publishing painful pictures of hungry children, women and men, where about 300,000 people died. .

Faced with this bleak picture of the Somali situation, the world moved and made efforts to deliver relief supplies there under the supervision of a multinational military coalition. In December 1992, the Americans launched Operation Restore Hope with the aim of providing security for the United Nations unit that went to save thousands of Somalis who were exhausted by starvation. .

Indeed, when those forces arrived in Somali lands, clan fighters armed with AK-47 rifles tried to confront these forces, but hunger, as well as the military strength of the Americans, made getting food their priority.

It was not easy to deny that the campaign also came to serve the interests of the United States and enhance its influence, as the early success of the humanitarian mission created a desire to move from the immediate task of ending the famine to allocating efforts to support the building of the state politically, and to strengthen its ability to resist the extremism represented in the “Shabab” movement. It was not an easy task at first, as Somalis fiercely resisted attempts to impose democracy from above.

With regard to dealing with the Somali warlords, the Americans relied on a strategy called "chicken plucking", aimed at slowly eliminating their influence through slow engagement with them.

Indeed, signs of the success of this strategy soon appeared, as with the passage of time the economy of Somalia improved, and tribal elders rose to resolve their differences without using weapons, and police stations and courts were opened to implement the law. On the other hand, the American forces played an important role in training, supporting and building the security capabilities of the Somali forces. , led by the elite special forces that took charge of counter-terrorism operations.

While the presence of the Americans continued on Somaliland, it became clear that the warlords were waiting for the opportunity to bite the hands that fed them, so the American forces were targeted with offensive operations, and one of the most dangerous of those operations was “Black Hawk Down” or “The Fall of the Black Eagle”, when Washington wanted to kill The warlord, "Mohamed Farah Aideed", was taught a harsh lesson.

In October 1993, 18 American soldiers were killed in an operation described as one of the worst operations targeting American forces outside the country, and their tattered bodies were carried through the streets of Mogadishu in full view of the world, an operation that prompted the United Nations Security Council to vote not to intervene In the genocide that began in Rwanda less than two weeks after the last soldiers of the West withdrew from Somalia, even though it could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

This operation forced then US President Bill Clinton to withdraw all of his country's forces from Somalia by March 1994, leaving the Malaysians the military mission there.

However, since 2007, and through the gateway of the African peacekeeping forces, there has been a secret military presence of the United States, where Washington provided logistical support and military expertise to those forces, and by 2011, after the defeat of Al-Shabaab against African and Somali forces and their exit from Mogadishu, the volume of intervention increased The US military, which led to the reduction of the influence of the Al-Shabab movement in the Horn of Africa.

In 2014, former President Barack Obama sent military advisers to Somalia.

Also in 2017, Trump expanded the US military's mission in East Africa, giving the Pentagon more powers to target al-Shabab fighters, and an international plan reached in the same year called for Somali security forces to operate independently by 2021. But before leaving office Within days, specifically in December 2020, Trump decided to withdraw the majority of the 750 American forces stationed in Somalia, and ordered their transfer to Kenya and Djibouti, where the only permanent American military base in Africa is located, in the hope that those forces would retain the ability to enter Somali lands and carry out the operations it deems appropriate without major risks to the American forces.

The US leadership in Africa actually implemented the decision to withdraw in the first month of last year, and the completion of this withdrawal was accompanied by several warnings due to its timing. Military and even civilian in the capital, Mogadishu.

The decision to rotate US forces inside and outside Somalia for specific tasks was considered a difficult and ineffective system, and undermined the overall US efforts to help Somalia fight Al-Shabaab, not to mention the impact of this decision on Danab, a Somali force sponsored by the US military since its establishment in 2013. Although it remains the main striking force in the fight against terrorism, it has borne the withdrawal tax.

Troop withdrawal and new dangers

In mid-May, the Biden administration's plan began to unfold, in which he responded to the request of his country's Ministry of Defense to re-establish an operations base in Somalia, where Washington plans to launch a "small and continuous American military presence", starting by relying on the soldiers of the forces already in the region and transferring them to the territory of Somalia .

American lawmakers welcomed this decision, as well as Somalis, coinciding with the return of "Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud" to the presidency of Somalia, which he held between 2012-2017, as Mahmoud defeated the current president, "Mohammed Abdullah Mohamed", known as Farmajo, in three rounds of voting. Parliament, the last of which was last May, after it was held up for more than a year due to the al-Shabab movement’s control over large swathes of the country, and also because of the long internal fighting within the government, as armed clashes erupted in the streets of the capital Mogadishu in April 2021 when politicians refused Farmajo will try to extend his term for another two years.

Outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo (right) with President Hassan Sheikh Mahmud (Anatolia)

Mahmoud pledged to work to end conflict and famine in a race against time due to the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund on May 17 to form a new federal government, or the country would lose international funding, as the country relies on foreign aid and remittances, and the government received more than 1.7 billion dollars in remittances in 2020, nearly 25% of Somalia's gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.

Returning to the American decision, the White House clearly said that the main focus will be on Al-Shabaab, which is behind the most deadly terrorist operations in Africa due to its capabilities and financing the strongest among the armed groups in that region. The movement, whose designation dates back to 2008, has claimed responsibility for many Massive terrorist attacks, including the attack that killed 67 people in a shopping center in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya in 2013, and the attack on a hotel complex in Nairobi also in 2019 that killed 21 people.

However, observers believe that after Trump's withdrawal decision, the movement has become more bloody and has increased its attacks, as it has taken advantage of Somali instability and fractured politics to become the largest and richest branch of al-Qaeda in the world.

Moreover, Al-Shabaab made territorial gains against the African Union peacekeepers.

In numbers, it can be said that the movement’s attacks increased by 17% in 2021 compared to the previous year, according to an analysis from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, and the percentage is expected to rise significantly this year if the current pace of violence continues.

A recent US government report implicated al-Shabab in 440 incidents of violence in Somalia between July and September, the highest number in two years.

Al-Shabab attacks rose 17% in 2021 compared to the previous year, according to an analysis from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington.

Driven by its fears that an escalating al-Shabab battlefield and a complex financial trajectory would create more space for the group to plan and carry out further attacks, Biden's recent decision to deploy troops to Somalia was driven by US military officials' longstanding belief that al-Shabab had intent to attack the United States and its forces in the region. , although it currently lacks the capabilities to do so.

American success in the troubled country

"The world tried everything we could think of in Somalia, but it did not work. They got more than their share of the world's help, gold, blood, and good intentions," said the US envoy to Somalia, Daniel Simpson, wondering about the feasibility of the American goals that came from It was postponed by the recent decision to return the troops to Somalia, more than a year after Trump ordered their withdrawal.

At the outset, it can be said that Washington wants the permanent presence decision to achieve several goals, such as raising the morale of the local forces that bear the largest part of the burden, as the African Union countries contribute about 19,000 soldiers to the peacekeeping force, as well as strengthening its influence in the ranks of the Somali central government. Corruption and political chaos have undermined its counter-terrorism mission in the country, and government paralysis could give al-Shabab a broader opportunity to gain power and undermine the government in Mogadishu.

In addition to the above, journalist "Adnan Abdi Ali" said in his interview with "

" that the birth of a new regime in Somalia prompted Washington to put fighting armed groups at the top of its priorities to protect American and Somali interests in a way that serves the stability of the region, then added: "There is an American desire By showing support for the new Somali leadership and testing its seriousness in fighting Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State known as “ISIS”, as Washington wants to break the thorns of Al-Shabaab, whose strength has greatly developed in the past period.

Ali indicated that the international community is interested in supporting the security transition in Somalia by the end of 2024, when African peacekeeping forces are supposed to withdraw from Somalia and the security services will assume responsibility for the country's security.

In addition, Washington wants to dispel its fears of the positioning of international powers such as China and Russia in Somalia if the American absence continues on the ground, and "Ali" stated that this is impossible to happen in the presence of American forces, but in the absence of those forces, nothing is excluded in Somalia, the owner of the site. What is important is the disintegrated state, which cannot remain in its current state without being affected by the ambitions of the rising international powers.

Ali linked the achievement of these goals to how to deal with the new Somali leadership, as the United States can make great strides in combating Al-Shabaab and dispelling fears of the presence of other international forces hostile to Washington in Somalia.

In the end, it can be said that the twenty-year march of the previous American support, which ended in 2021 without Somalia being able to weaken the strength of Al-Shabab only partially, raises fears, the least of which is the possibility of the collapse of the central government in the country at any time and the country turning towards a new clan fighting. The United States, which does not have the desire or ability to micromanage this deeply troubled country, needs to find a path that guarantees the support and empowerment of the central government, a strategy that may bear fruit in stopping the hell of operations committed by Al-Shabaab, and then making way for building a cohesive state in Somalia, and certainly To serve US interests in the region.