Plans for attacks in Germany: The Afghan threat is back

This verdict received little attention in Germany, but it should serve as a wake-up call: Under the guidance of a leading cadre of the "Islamic State" (IS) in Afghanistan, five Tajik citizens wanted to carry out attacks in North Rhine-Westphalia.

The Düsseldorf Higher Regional Court sentenced them to prison terms of up to nine and a half years.

The planning of the foiled attacks followed a well-known pattern.

It was developed after 2015 by the IS leadership in its former core areas in Syria and Iraq.

The terrorist organization no longer sends self-trained cadres to Europe to carry out attacks.

Rather, the planners are in virtual contact with those who guide them, for example via the messaging service Telegram.

This is efficient for them.

The jihadists save money, no longer have to travel or cross borders, but can control the attacks from a safe distance.

The Tajik terrorist cell in North Rhine-Westphalia had never met the IS squad in Afghanistan.

The most dangerous wing of IS

The Afghan branch of "Islamic State", which calls itself "IS province of Khorasan" there, has become the most dangerous wing of the terrorist organization in recent years.

While the movement in Syria and Iraq is only slowly forming again after the military defeat, he finds conditions in the Taliban's “Islamic Emirate” that favor his expansion.

The number of combat-ready IS jihadists there has doubled to 4,000 since the beginning of 2021.

Most are Afghans, Pakistanis and citizens of Central Asian countries.

They have been spreading fear and terror in Afghanistan for years.

In April alone, 37 attacks, some of which were large, were registered.

For the first time, IS has also attacked targets in Pakistan and Uzbekistan from Afghanistan in recent weeks.

If the IS can consolidate its position in the Hindu Kush, then the jihadists could continue to target Europe.

The Düsseldorf trial of the Tajik terrorist cell was just a foretaste of what could come.

Left to its own devices, Afghanistan is a hotbed of Islamist extremism of a wide variety.

It ranges from the rulers of the Taliban, who pursue local goals, to the groups who want to carry jihad from Afghanistan to their countries of origin: to Pakistan, China, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

The transitions are fluid, so it cannot be ruled out that the jihadists will even come together in a large organization that would then have 10,000 to 20,000 fighters under arms.

By then at the latest, Afghanistan would once again be the epicenter of international terrorism.

Great recruitment potential

Afghan IS attracts other jihadists like a magnet.

Its leadership is recruited from the Pakistani Taliban.

These emerged after 2001 in response to Pakistan giving in to American pressure and helping to overthrow the Taliban in Kabul.

The Pakistani Taliban are the greatest threat to Pakistan's internal security today.

The IS obtains the suicide bombers for its attacks in Afghanistan from the so-called Haqqani network, which is involved in the government in Kabul.

The Haqqanis have a semi-autonomous position within the Taliban.

They form the hardliner wing and provide the interior minister.

Al-Qaida, whose leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is believed to be hiding in Afghanistan, operates independently of IS.

Al-Qaeda probably continues to enjoy the protection of parts of the Taliban, although they promised the US in a February 2020 agreement to cut all ties to the organization responsible for 9/11.

Differences to Al-Qaeda and the Taliban

The terrorist threat emanating from Afghan IS is the greater.

Unlike al-Qaeda, IS also attacks Islamic targets, such as Shia mosques;

unlike the Taliban, whose Afghan nationalism he rejects, he advocates global jihad.

The IS is pursuing the strategy of first overthrowing the Taliban, expanding its regional ambitions at the same time and finally, as in the case of the Tajik cell in Germany, bringing jihad into the world.

Since the western withdrawal last summer, Afghanistan has been attracting new foreign fighters, including those from the Middle East.

Unlike in 1996, when the Taliban were able to take power in the country for the first time, they are currently too weak in terms of personnel and military power to create security.

Support for them is already crumbling among the population, especially since poverty and hunger have reached unimaginable proportions.

Despite other sources of fire, the world must not lose sight of Afghanistan.