Military and diplomatic maneuvers... Will Washington succeed in deterring North Korea?

WASHINGTON -

70 years ago, the Korean War ended in July 1953 with a temporary armistice, without a peace treaty or clear treaty setting up a post-war framework.

Since then, relations between Washington and Pyongyang have known only tension.

This prompted North Korea to realize the importance of securing itself with a nuclear weapon that would prevent any possible US military aggression.

At the same time, Washington refuses to accept North Korea's possession of a nuclear weapon that poses a threat to it and its allies in Japan and South Korea.

The Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and South Korea, signed after the end of the war in 1953, obligates Washington to help Seoul defend itself, and American forces, estimated at 28,500 soldiers, are stationed near the borders of the two Koreas.

Explosions during a US naval exercise with South Korean forces to counter a possible attack from Pyongyang (European)

Punishments and meetings

Over the past few years, North Korea continued to test its nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, while the United States led international efforts under which it imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Pyongyang, and made it at the head of the pariah countries of the majority of the world's countries.

The UN Security Council issued several resolutions banning North Korea from acquiring a nuclear program or weapon, and Pyongyang responded by banning International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from entering its territory.

During the era of former President Donald Trump, the world breathed a sigh of relief after a series of exchanges between him and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The two presidents met 3 times in Singapore and Vietnam and on the border separating the two Koreas, but these meetings failed to reach an agreement under which Pyongyang would give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting international sanctions imposed on it.

A rare show of strength

The past few days have witnessed an additional escalation after North Korea tested a number of short-range ballistic missiles from multiple locations towards the Sea of ​​Japan on June 5.

This was followed by reports indicating that North Korea was preparing to conduct a new nuclear test, which would be its first since 2017.

North Korea's launch of its missiles came a day after the US aircraft carrier "Ronald Reagan" concluded three days of naval exercises with South Korea, in the first maneuvers between them involving an aircraft carrier since November 2017.

North Korea denounces joint military exercises as a prelude to its invasion, and its own missile exercises have often faced simulated attacks on South Korean ports and US military facilities inside Korea and Japan.

Since the beginning of 2022, North Korea has conducted 18 missile launches, an average of one new test every 8 days, and North Korea has intercontinental missiles that can reach US soil.

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman vowed during her visit on Tuesday that South Korea would respond quickly and strongly if Pyongyang conducted a new nuclear test.

A day before that threat, South Korea and the United States launched 8 ballistic missiles off the east coast of South Korea, in response to North Korea's test, which surprised many observers around the world.

Also, 20 combat aircraft belonging to the South Korean and US armies, including the advanced "F-35" (F-35), flew off the west coast of South Korea and near the territorial waters of North Korea on Tuesday, in a show of strength and to emphasize the speed of response to any steps by Pyongyang.

US President Joe Biden on a visit to South Korea last month (Getty Images)

Strategy with new tools

Since coming to power a year and a half ago, the Biden administration has aimed for a gradual partial easing of sanctions on North Korea, in exchange for the latter taking partial steps toward denuclearization.

North Korea refuses to sit at the negotiating table with the US administration because it considers its rhetoric hostile and unjustified towards it.

Washington wants a pledge that negotiations will be aimed at helping North Korea get rid of its nuclear weapons.

"Washington and Seoul's strategy on North Korea focuses on deterrence. Both countries prioritize North Korea's denuclearization, and participation is conditional on a clear signal that North Korea is ready for denuclearization," said Yoon Sun, an expert on US-Asian relations at the Stimson Institute.

According to Sun, in her interview with Al-Jazeera Net, this means that "North Korea will most likely continue its provocative actions because it does not get the attention or reward it wants from Washington after freezing nuclear tests for more than 5 years."

For his part, Patrick Cronin, head of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the "Hudson Institute" and a former official at the US Departments of Defense and State, considered that the Biden administration "wants to deter potential adversaries and reassure allies."

In parallel with the new administration of President Yoon Sok-yul in South Korea, Cronin told Al-Jazeera Net, "Washington wants to prove that North Korean weapons tests will lead to firm responses, and it seeks with Seoul to pre-empt any nuclear test coming from Pyongyang."

Is North Korea deterrence successful?

The United States has vowed to press for additional international sanctions if North Korea conducts a new nuclear test.

But the prospects for further action by the UN Security Council appear to be absent.

Russia and China vetoed a resolution submitted by the United States that would have imposed additional sanctions on North Korea for its ballistic tests on May 25.

Cronin pointed out that North Korea, for its part, does not wish to attack any of its opponents now, and only wants to abolish international sanctions while maintaining its aspirations to continue as a nuclear-weapon state.

Cronin adds that "Washington and Seoul want to avoid appearing weak in the face of any aggressive action by North Korea, and there will be diplomatic, economic and military steps taken to pressure any destabilizing measures taken by Pyongyang. Kim Jong Un cannot be a good and accepted member of the nations." the United Nations while underestimating the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council.

Despite US efforts to deter it, North Korea is seeking global recognition as a nuclear state (Al-Jazeera)

Diplomacy and deterrence together

As for the expert on Korean affairs at the American Council on Foreign Relations, Scott Snyder, believes that the United States and South Korea are trying to send a message of condemnation and deterrence towards the intensive missile tests conducted by North Korea and its plans to conduct a nuclear test.

And "the missile launches came from Washington and Seoul, and their joint air maneuvers to confirm their disapproval of the possibility of an imminent nuclear test by Pyongyang."

Snyder considered, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that "the Biden administration's strategy combines diplomacy and deterrence together in an attempt to achieve the complete denuclearization of North Korea based on the premise that the latter's possession of nuclear capabilities is illegal (after North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and breached its obligations). as a non-nuclear state), but Pyongyang, for its part, seeks recognition of its new status, and the normalization of the world with it as a responsible nuclear state.