It is considered likely that the number of corona infections will increase again in autumn.

People are then more likely to be indoors again and the cold weather makes it easier for viruses anyway.

The Federal Government’s Corona Expert Council is therefore calling for “continued control measures adapted to the situation”, as stated in a paper by the advisory committee that was presented in Berlin on Wednesday.

But what that means exactly depends on the further development of the pathogen - and nobody can predict exactly what that will look like.

Kim Bjorn Becker

Editor in Politics.

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"We expressly do not want to draw any dramatic pictures and create concerns in the population tired of the pandemic," said Heyo Kroemer, Chairman of the Expert Council.

Kroemer is also chairman of the board of the Berlin Charité.

“The pandemic is definitely not over.

It makes sense to prepare for fall.”

The crucial variable in the calculation is the further change of the virus.

"No one knows what's going to happen in the fall and winter," Kroemer said.

Depending on the development of the virus, the scientists of the Expert Council distinguish three scenarios in their statement.

In the "basic scenario" the pathogen continues to make you sick to the same extent as it is currently, and then there will be "frequent occurrences of infections and absences from work" throughout the winter.

The scientists fear that individual measures will be necessary locally.

If, on the other hand, a mutated virus causes illness less often, many protective measures are no longer necessary - or at most to protect people at risk.

In these cases, there are also absenteeism among the population.

In the “worst-case scenario”, Corona continues to develop in such a way that it not only becomes more contagious, but also more dangerous.

Then even fully vaccinated people could become seriously ill.

In this case, the health system would be heavily burdened, in the normal wards of the hospitals as well as in the intensive care units.

Protective measures such as masks and distance rules could then only be "reduced" in the spring of next year.

The expert council ruled out the possibility that the virus would mutate so severely that the vaccination would no longer work.

In the best-case scenario, according to the expert council, Germany is facing a “strategy change” in corona policy.

Instead of containing the pathogen, the protection of vulnerable groups and the alleviation of serious diseases could stand, according to the report.

The reason is the increased immunity in the population, both through vaccinations and through infections.

The Expert Council nevertheless criticizes a “relevant vaccination gap” in the population.

It is therefore possible that, depending on the course of the pandemic, the health system could again be “considerably burdened” in autumn and winter – also due to the spread of other viruses that can cause respiratory diseases.

The vaccination is “extremely effective,” said Leif-Erik Sander, an infectiologist at the Charité and, like Kroemer, a member of the expert council.

Without vaccination, the disease burden in the population would have been enormous.

"At the same time, there is a reduced risk perception among the population", which leads to "decreasing acceptance" of the existing corona measures, said Sander.

This is a "comprehensible process".

Federal Minister of Justice Marco Buschmann (FDP) only wants to decide on possible corona rules for autumn when the eagerly awaited scientific assessment of the protective measures is available at the end of the month.

The fact that the current version of the Infection Protection Act expires at the end of September is not a random date, Buschmann said on Wednesday on ARD.

It was chosen so that "after the summer break we have two weeks of sessions in the German Bundestag in order to go through a very orderly, regular legislative process." Parliament meets regularly until the beginning of July and then meets again at the beginning of September.

Between the end of June, when the report is available, and the end of the parliamentary summer break, the government wants to "discuss what needs to be done together with the federal states," said Buschmann.

The federal government also discussed this with the Prime Ministers' Conference.

"I don't understand why some now think that this timetable is no longer worth anything."

The social association VdK has called on the federal government to extend the mask requirement in local public transport beyond September.

In addition, citizen tests should continue to be offered free of charge.

"There is a need to hurry here, as they expire at the end of June," said President Verena Bentele in Berlin.

She also called for restrictive test concepts to be maintained in nursing homes and facilities for people with disabilities.

"This is the only way to ensure the safety of the residents even in the current infection situation.

The protection of all risk groups must be the priority.”