Andrew Wood said that destroying Ukraine and killing its people is not the way to glory and respect
British diplomat: Putin's goals are an insult to his office and his people
The Russian targeting of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, was renewed, amid logistical problems experienced by the Russian army.
Reuters
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The West welcomed Vladimir Putin as a president who would restore order and reform when he replaced tired, discredited Boris Yeltsin in 2000. Few felt then that he might, instead, lead the Russian people into the tragedy that is now looming over him.
Sir Andrew Wood, former British ambassador to Moscow and associate fellow at Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Affairs), an independent policy institute based in London, said in a report published by the centre, that the Russian president's relentless pursuit in two intertwined political directions was a betrayal of his duties. Constitutionalism and the interests of his people: first by concentrating power in his hands, and secondly by his obsession with what he sees as Russia's right under his rule through threat and violence to bring it back as a power, it is treated as a counterweight to that of the United States in the same way it did during the Cold War.
two goals
Both goals have been around since Putin's election in 2000, but their devastating repercussions have become more evident in recent years.
Putin is now a leader who is neither restrained nor accepting of honest advice.
Even before February 24, people who were thinking differently from Putin were being threatened and punished for staying silent or pushed into preemptive exile, said Sir Wood, fellow in the Russia-Eurasia program at Chatham House.
But such personal strength will lead to crises or problems, which the leader will insist on further exacerbating, for fear that his judgment or willpower will appear in a position of weakness.
Wood argued that Putin and his tough regime had stifled Russia.
Effectively destroying independent government institutions gave Putin and his staunch loyalists immediate powers to act, but not the weight of logical argument, which would have made them make their decisions based on sufficient information, let alone arrive at it by responding to a debate, or public sentiment.
Judging by understanding
Ruling by “understandings” outside the law may seem more appropriate in the Kremlin than ruling by law, which links governments and citizens.
But it also feeds power and the proliferation of semi-legal governing bodies.
Sir Andrew Wood noted that flexible rules on property rights, coupled with a commitment to a dominant preference for state-supported natural resource projects, would not make future creative investment attractive at all.
The regime's reliance on propaganda that includes obvious lies will not lead to lasting popular obedience, whatever the penalties inflicted on those who oppose these lies.
He emphasized that only tangible and real achievements that can enhance popular hopes for the future can lead in this direction.
Even before February 24, there were growing symptoms of weakness, emptiness, and the possibility of chaos affecting the confidence of the Russian regime and people about its future.
And again, it all got worse now.
international weight
In the eyes of the people of Russia and most of the world, Putin's regime has succeeded in reasserting its international weight by rearming and deploying to various theaters as a greatly enhanced armed forces.
This was persuasively fitting the Kremlin's messages about past injustices and a current threat to Russia from the West.
And if the elections tell the truth, most Russian citizens still believe that, through the war in Ukraine, they are protecting “Mother Russia.”
NATO's support for Kiev has been portrayed as evidence of that belief.
But the Kremlin has a lot to hide, and the truth will become clear one day, especially the frightening incompetence of the Russian armed forces, the scale of their losses and Putin's responsibility for all this.
Those who direct or run the system that Putin has nurtured over the past years, and who have remained obedient to the demands of the system and benefited from it, will bear the responsibility and will eventually be held accountable.
Thinking of illusions
And the former British diplomat saw that what is happening in Ukraine is an affirmation of Russia's lack of a promising future if the Putin regime survives.
He explained that the Russian people as a whole will need to reflect on the illusions that led their country to fail again, in order to mature an effective government that can be held accountable.
Without doing this, Russia will not become as prosperous, innovative and stable as other countries in Europe have become.
Destroying Ukraine and killing its own people is not the path to glory and respect.
Sir Wood said that "winning" Ukraine as a great power was not within Russia's reach.
The incompetence of the Russian armed forces and leadership, headed by Putin, as well as the commitment demonstrated by Ukraine and its allies, make a complete victory unlikely.
But even if this assessment is overly optimistic, and the fighting in the Donbass results in a Russian "victory," Putin's reckless and uncalculated adventure will ultimately be a permanent defeat.
Wood argued that the Ukrainians could never forget or forgive what Russia had already done, let alone work with Putin's clients as part of a new, broader Russia governed by Russia today.
Russia, led by Putin, cannot pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine after the devastation it has caused.
Ukraine's neighbors, including those that Moscow considers part of Russia's security zone, will have clear information about what happened in Ukraine and about the brutality and weakness of the Russian armed forces.
Inability to change
وقال وود إن مأساة روسيا هي أن بوتين وحاشيته لن يغيروا ولن يستطيعوا أن يغيروا حكمهم، أو السياسات التي نتجت عنه. وعلى الأرجح سيكون رد فعل النظام على الكارثة التي تسبب فيها، هو مضاعفة الجهود في الداخل، وفي حالة التعرض لهزيمة، سيبحث عن فرصة لاستئناف طموحاته الدولية كلما سنحت الفرصة لذلك، خصوصاً في ما يتعلق بأوكرانيا. ويبقى السؤال هو كيف سيفهم الشعب الروسي ما الذي فعله حكامه به وببلاده. إن أهداف بوتين تشكل إهانة لمنصبه ولشعبه ولمستقبلهما. واختتم وود تقريره بالقول، إن تلك القوى التي أصبحت تدرك طبيعة روسيا الجارية بقيادة بوتين، يجب ألا تتصور إنها ستقوم بضبط وتعديل أهدافها بمرور الوقت، إذا تم كسب ودها بشكل ملائم، أو أن خليفة بوتين في نهاية الأمر سيكون إما نسخة كربونية منه أو شخصاً ربما يكون أسوأ. إن ما سيحدث في روسيا لاحقاً، سيقابله الروس إما بالترحيب أو بالندم، وبقية العالم ربما يمكن أن يخمن ماذا ومتى ومن. ولكن لا أحد يمكن أن يؤسس سياسات مستقبلية، على ما لا يستطيع معرفته الآن، كما فعل الكثيرون عندما احتفلوا بوصول بوتين إلى الكرملين في عام 2000.
Intense battles in Ukraine's Severodonetsk .. Russia warns the West again
After progress was made in the strategic city of Severodonetsk, which is under intense Russian bombardment in eastern Ukraine, the situation there "aggravated" for the Ukrainian army, the day after President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the front line.
Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv that Ukrainian forces "maintain their positions" in Severodonetsk, but that the Russians are "more numerous and more powerful there", so the situation is "difficult" on the eastern front.
The Ukrainian military said that the "main efforts of the enemy are focused" on trying to completely capture this industrial center and "repel" Ukrainian forces in the neighboring Lysechhansk region.
"Our soldiers still control Severodonetsk and the fighting continues in the eastern part of it," the army added.
Kyiv - AFP
The Russian regime's reliance on propaganda that includes obvious lies will not lead to lasting popular obedience, no matter what penalties are inflicted on those who oppose these lies.
People who were thinking differently from Putin were being threatened and punished for staying silent or pushed into preemptive exile even before February 24, and the situation is now worse.
Ruling by “understandings” outside the law may seem more appropriate in the Kremlin than ruling by law, which links governments and citizens. But it also feeds power and the proliferation of semi-legal governing bodies.
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