Al Jazeera Net is seeking the opinions of experts from Washington... Has the diplomatic track between the United States and Iran failed?

WASHINGTON

- In conjunction with the issuance of a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board regarding Tehran's failure to fulfill its nuclear commitments and exceeding the agreed levels of uranium enrichment, pessimism among many Iranian experts is increasing about the fate of renewing the nuclear agreement signed in 2015, which was canceled by former President Donald Trump in 2018.

Experts say that the administration of President Joe Biden did not take early steps to return to the nuclear agreement with Iran, which partly contributed to the arrival of a "hard new leadership" to power in Tehran, which hindered the revival of the nuclear agreement.

Al Jazeera Net interviewed 4 experts to investigate the trends of political thinking in Washington regarding the Iranian nuclear issue.

Their opinions were as follows:

says

if she expected what was mentioned in the new report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

She added that it was important to remember that having enough material to make a weapon and having a nuclear weapon were actually two different things, and that Iran would need to reach 90% enrichment, and it would have to be able to decide how to use that weapon if it was available.

She explains that this process may take another year or two.

However, this is worrying and a direct result of the Trump administration's "reckless" decision to withdraw from the agreement when Iran was in full compliance with it.

The director of the "Iran's Future" initiative considered that the negotiators' continued struggle to resume work on the nuclear agreement became more urgent, after Iran made progress in uranium enrichment.

Concerning the internal American and Iranian calculations towards the negotiations, the expert on Iranian affairs confirmed that this is the core of the dispute and the main issue, whether in Tehran or Washington!

In the two capitals, there is a fear of appearing weak, and there is not yet enough political will to return to the agreement.

She believes that the Iranians - in particular - fear that the US administration will withdraw again, even if they return to compliance.

With Biden's popularity declining in public opinion polls, there is increasing concern about the upcoming congressional elections in November, as it is expected that they will not facilitate Biden's handling of the nuclear deal issue.

The director of the "Future of Iran" initiative says that Biden, unlike former President Barack Obama, was never invested or willing to take risks in order to reach an agreement, nor is he willing to make additional concessions to restore the deal.

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says that after one year of non-compliance with the nuclear agreement following the withdrawal of the United States and the re-imposition of sanctions, Iran doubled its possession of more enriched uranium.

In the opinion of the researcher, it is important to bear in mind that having enough nuclear material is not the same as having an actual nuclear weapon.

She says that it will take Iran from one year to two years before reaching the production of a nuclear weapon, and it will have to make a political decision to go along this path, "Iran is still a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons until today, and officially confirms that it does not seek to acquire a nuclear weapon. And as such, there is time to change its calculations, and to return to the previous agreement."

The researcher pointed out that Iran's progress in uranium enrichment rates may accelerate and move the stalemate of negotiations by creating a sense of urgency to address the issue, but since Biden came to power, his administration has lost the political will to fix the mistakes of his predecessor and return the United States to the nuclear agreement.

On the other hand, the stalemate could change in the other direction, as an increase in Iran's nuclear capabilities is causing Washington to escalate with it instead of the diplomatic path.

The researcher stressed that one of the main obstacles to restoring the old nuclear agreement deal is the Biden administration’s decision to keep the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on the list of foreign terrorist organizations, which was taken by the Trump administration to obstruct any American return to the nuclear agreement, by restricting the hands of the next administration at a political cost to remove this organization from Terrorist classification.

And it considered that the internal politics and calculations, on both sides, caused the current stalemate, as there are hard-line internal parties looking for the failure of the old deal and the diplomatic path as a whole.

And although Biden had a golden opportunity early in his presidency to reclaim the deal when the administration of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani - which focused on the nuclear deal as its biggest achievement - was still in power, today despite a "hard-line administration" it indicated that it You want to get the deal back in exchange for the sanctions being lifted.

Both sides will have to make concessions, but on the part of Washington: The Biden administration should show more political courage to right the mistakes of the previous administration, given that the majority of Americans support a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue with Iran.

For his part,

believes that the issue of uranium enrichment has been intensely politicized, and Iran has boasted about this, declaring that it is enriching up to 60%, and said that this increase may Be to put pressure on the United States to make concessions in the Vienna talks.

The expert on Iran added that Israel does not question Tehran's claims of enrichment in order to persuade Washington to impose more sanctions on Iran, or even to consider a military strike or a cyber attack.

And he warned that the International Atomic Energy Agency may lose its credibility, as the visit of its Secretary-General to Israel in the past few days is a non-smart step, given the increasing tension between Tel Aviv and Tehran.

Based on the information available, there is no way to know whether Iran has enough enriched uranium to actually produce nuclear weapons, but it is clearly close to that.

Prof. Jawdat noted that he did not believe the negotiations were on the right track, as both sides chose to leave the toughest issues to the end.

He added that there are two main obstacles, the first of which is that it is difficult for President Biden to remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guard from the list of terrorist organizations.

He also said that the Revolutionary Guards have a very bad reputation in Washington, and Biden does not have much positive leverage to use on this issue.

Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guards control the economy and the joints of the state, and no Iranian leader can agree to keep it a terrorist organization.

On the other hand, with Biden's chances of a second term receding, the Iranians read the American political map, and see that there is no value in making a deal with the Biden administration, "they insist on guarantees that the United States will not withdraw from the deal again. Biden cannot give Iran such guarantees that neither he, nor any other president, has the constitutional powers to do so."

Sina Azudi ,

that Iran is currently very close in terms of uranium enrichment, which means that it may have enough fissile material to develop one nuclear warhead, if it decides to militarize its nuclear program, "which is What I find highly unlikely."

This expert says that there is a strong but wrong conclusion, which is that the longer the war in Ukraine prolongs, and sanctions continue to be imposed on Russia, the more Moscow will depend on Tehran.

He believes that Iran had the perfect opportunity to quickly end the nuclear talks when the war began, but as always, the Iranians often miss opportunities.

As for the internal calculations in Tehran and Washington, Azoudi stressed that they contribute strongly to obstructing any agreement.

Over time, pressure is mounting on the Biden administration not to succumb to Iranian demands that limit the space for diplomatic maneuvering.

In Iran, domestic politics also plays a role.

First, with the continuation of the sanctions, the Revolutionary Guards, and other factions that benefit from the sanctions, are fighting to secure their interests by maintaining the continuation of the sanctions.

Second: The Iranian side's negotiators have been against the JCPOA since the beginning, although they correctly point out that the US withdrawal in 2018 made it clear that US commitments and commitments cannot be trusted.