According to Jan Hallenberg, several negotiation games are taking place in parallel right now - not least between the USA and Turkey.
One question is whether Turkey will possibly receive deliveries of modern American fighter jets, something that Turkey's Natorival Greece has received.
- The US Secretary of State says that there is no connection between this game and Sweden's and Finland's NATO applications, but tomorrow it may have changed to a very clear connection.
According to Hallenberg, the domestic political turbulence is by no means a positive thing.
But in the larger context, Hallenberg believes that today's drama, in which Amineh Kakabaveh demanded the Social Democrats' renewed promises of cooperation with the Kurdish PYD to save the government, will not play a major role in the NATO process.
- The United States has signaled that Sweden and Finland are important to have with NATO, not least by letting their second largest ship and its highest general visit Stockholm.
I think it will happen, but whether it will be at the big NATO meeting in Madrid later this month or even later can not be decided, says Jan Hallengren in Aktuellt.
"The end of the NATO application"
One who, on the other hand, believes that the Social Democrats' confirmation of the agreement with the badly regarded Amineh Kakabaveh in Turkey will have significantly greater consequences is Turkey expert Halil Karaveli at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm:
- This is the end of Sweden's NATO application.
As I see it, this shows that the Swedish government does not intend to meet Turkey's demands.
The relationship between the USA and Turkey is not very good, and Turkey really has nothing to gain from Sweden joining NATO, he tells Svenska Dagbladet.