Can America prevent China from invading Taiwan?

Two researchers in international relations and strategic issues said that US President Joe Biden's repeated threat that his country would intervene militarily if China tried to invade Taiwan by force seemed as if the United States was abandoning the "policy of ambiguity" it has pursued for a long time.

In

joint article in The National Interest, Patrick Mendes, professor of transatlantic relations at Warsaw University in Poland and professor of global affairs at National Chengqi University in Taiwan, and his colleague Hon Min Yao, professor of strategy and international affairs at the National Defense University in Taiwan, describe;

Biden's warning is a very clear message that America will engage in military action in defense of Taiwan against China more strongly than it did in Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Biden's policy of "strategic clarity" emanating from the policy of strategic ambiguity is - in the opinion of academics - an integral part of the deterrence strategy, which is clearly derived from the vision of former US Defense Department official Elbridge Colby in his book entitled "Strategy of Denial: American Defense". About the era of great power struggle.

optimistic forecast

In his book, Colby argues that the United States should defend Taiwan with its allies in Japan and South Korea, adding that Washington can emerge victorious and prevent a war.

The two university professors are trying to extrapolate the ideas proposed by researchers Jared McKinney and Peter Harris in their article published in the journal Parameters, issued by the US Army War College, in an attempt to answer the question of whether America was able to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Professors Mendes and Min Yao explain that McKinney and Harris, in their article titled “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,” proposed a Taiwanese deterrence strategy that would turn Taipei into an “unwanted” island;

It thus makes Beijing's attempt to seize by force what it calls a "dissident province" seem illogical.

4 Recommendations

With 4 key recommendations in their article, McKinney and Harris argue that in their quest to prevent a Chinese invasion, the United States and Taiwan should threaten to destroy the facilities of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), one of the world's most important chip producers and the most important supplier of this commodity to China.

Once those facilities are destroyed - according to the US War College Journal article - China's high-tech industries will be crippled at exactly the same time that Beijing is immersed in a massive war effort.

The article also notes that the economic cost of a war of this kind will last years, "even after the battles are officially over," which suggests that the situation may harm the legitimacy of the ruling Chinese Communist Party.

In their National Interest article on McKinney and Harris' interpretations and analysis of a possible Chinese invasion, Mendes and Min Yao comment that these two military strategists have made their own assumptions "that hardly apply to the changing dynamics of stakeholders' geopolitical and geo-economic calculus".

The important lesson learned from the Russian invasion of Ukraine - according to the National Interest article - is that the repeated threats to impose sanctions, embargoes and economic blockades, and indirect US military interventions;

It did not prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from waging a war.

Application challenges

Regardless of the significant costs to countries imposing financial and other restrictions and an unpredictable global market, the challenges of implementing these measures serve as a warning to Taiwan, the United States, and their Asian allies if threats from China become increasingly imminent.

The hypothesis put forward by McKinney and Harris began by discussing the growing military power of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in Asia and the challenges to America's ability to implement deterrence by preventing the enemy from using military force in an emergency.

They argue that China's advances would reduce the cost of any military action against Taiwan, while the price of self-restraint would increase due to Taiwan's recent domestic policies.

In such a situation, the US military no longer has a clear superiority in the region, because any scenario for Taiwan in the future will be either a fait accompli for China or an escalation of a superpower war between China and America.

Recommendations from two perspectives

McKinney and Harris made recommendations from two perspectives: On the one hand, Taiwan and the United States should increase the cost of military action on China by switching to an alternative strategy to "deterrence with punishment."

This goal can be achieved by persuading China that an invasion of Taiwan would be detrimental to its national interests and its local development strategy.

On the other hand, researchers seem to point out that the United States continues its “strategic ambiguity” to reduce the cost of self-restraint by assuring China that “giving up the invasion of Taiwan will not be tantamount to losing Taiwan,” while this coincides with attempts to persuade China and Taiwan that The United States remains committed to maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait.

Mendes and Min Yao return in their article to McKinney and Harris' proposal that the United States threaten to destroy the facilities of the Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer in an effort to prevent China from invading Taiwan.

It hurts Taiwan more than China

But the authors believe that destroying Taiwan's semiconductor industries could harm Taiwan more than China by undermining Taiwan's political and economic survival;

Hence, strategically, China would greatly appreciate the destruction of these facilities if Taiwan were to bite the hand that feeds them.

The "broken nest" strategy proposed by McKinney and Harris includes four elements: a strong Taiwanese defense, a pre-planned Taiwanese resistance campaign, self-destruction of the semiconductor manufacturing facilities, and a regional response from America's allies.

In its article, the National Interest concludes that applying the evolving lessons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the unintended consequences that followed - such as the human cost, the refugee issue, and global impact - might be a better way to rethink developing a strategy of deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.