The world's poor end up being part of the collateral damage. As the war in Ukraine continues, the most disadvantaged people in the Middle East, Central Asia and much of Africa will find themselves in the midst of a crisis from which they have no income, while food prices are rising and food becomes increasingly scarce.

In a report published by the British Financial Times, author David Billing said that nearly 700 million people, or 9% of the world's population - about two-thirds in sub-Saharan Africa - live on less than $1.90 a day, according to statistics. The year 2021, which the World Bank defines as extreme poverty, and any significant rise in food prices would add millions more to this category.

A report issued by Standard and Poor's expects the food crisis to continue until 2024 and possibly beyond, and warns of the impact on social stability, economic growth and sovereign ratings. It pushes 47 million people - mostly in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, Afghanistan and Yemen - into acute hunger.

Before the war, Russia and Ukraine were among the 3 largest exporters of wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and its oil, which together make up 12% of all food calories in circulation. Russia is the largest producer of fertilizers.

aftermath of war

The writer mentioned that the inflation rate in countries such as Ghana is about 25%, which leads to the erosion of purchasing power, and in Nigeria, the central bank surprised the markets by raising interest rates by 150 basis points, and Kenya raised interest rates this week for the first time in nearly 7 years, noting the turmoil Supply chain and commodity prices.

This week, Senegal's President and African Union Chairman Macky Sall announced that he will travel to Moscow and, most likely, will petition Russian President Vladimir Putin about the consequences of the Russian blockade of the Black Sea port of Odessa, which prevents 20 million tons of wheat from leaving Ukraine.

Indeed, the main cause of this misery is the war on Ukraine rather than the resulting sanctions. However, the West should take seriously the complaint of the President of Senegal that sanctions against Russian banks have made it difficult, if not impossible, to Buy grain and fertilizer from Russia, and many countries, particularly in Africa where the urban population is rising faster, need to think more seriously about long-term food security.

While the 2003 Maputo Declaration committed African heads of state to allocating at least 10% of budgetary allocations to agriculture, few have come close to that number.

Facing the crisis

Instead of making serious efforts to increase domestic yields, many governments have sought to quell the disruption of urban residents with food imports.

Africa is the fastest growing consumer of wheat although it is grown in a few countries on the continent including Kenya and South Africa, and locally produced crops need more care.

The widespread use of teff (an ancient Ethiopian grain) in the Horn of Africa is a good example, and other crops that can be eaten more widely include cassava grown in West and Central Africa that can be made into bread.

Governments also need to combat soil erosion and reconsider genetically modified crops, in addition to food. Many countries depend on fertilizer imports, and in Africa, Morocco is one of the largest of the few producers.

As a priority, countries with large gas reserves, including Mozambique, Tanzania, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Mauritania, should develop a domestic fertilizer industry.

It has been proven that it is possible to implement the above in Nigeria at the hands of businessman Aliko Dangote, who this year opened a fertilizer factory outside Lagos with a capacity to produce 3 million tons of urea annually, making it among the largest production units in the world, and his fertilizers are shipped to the United States The United States, Brazil, Mexico and India, but it is important that Dangote manure also serve as a basis for increasing local yields.

In conclusion, the author pointed out that governments are right to be concerned about their hungry urban populations, but the solution lies in paying more attention to their farmers.