China News Service, Beijing, June 4 (Zhang Naiyue and He Luman) Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey, which has been conducting shuttle diplomacy, once brought the two sides close to reaching a peace agreement.

Since Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO to jointly deal with Russia, Turkey has become a "vanguard" against the "joining" of the two countries, not only putting forward relevant conditions, but also taking an extremely tough attitude.

  Why has Turkey become a new variable in the situation in Russia and Ukraine?

Oppose Finland and Sweden "joining the treaty"

Turkey offers two conditions

  Sweden and Finland have formally submitted their applications to join NATO.

But then Turkey objected, citing the two countries' opposition to Turkey's stance against Kurdish militant groups such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) active in Turkey and the region.

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg shows the documents of Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO.

  On May 31, local time, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Finland and Sweden should amend their laws if necessary to meet Turkey's demands, thereby winning the country's support for its entry into NATO.

  The core requirements are clear:

  - Cease support for the PKK, the Syrian Kurdish armed "People's Protection Units" and the "Gulen Movement".

  - Lifting the arms embargo and related sanctions against Turkey.

  Two days ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said harshly: "As long as Tayyip Erdogan is still the head of state of the Republic of Turkey, he must not say 'yes' to countries that support terrorism joining NATO."

  For years, the PKK has sought to create an "independent state".

Zhao Junjie, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Chinanews.com that for Turkey, this is equivalent to losing part of its land and population, and it is a matter of principle that cannot be compromised.

"While Sweden and Finland openly support the Kurdish armed forces, Turkey cannot ignore this and must use this opportunity to express its interests."

  Regarding the remarks of the Turkish Foreign Minister, Zhao Junjie believes that amending the law is a complicated matter for any country.

After Turkey made a principled request, it released this signal again, creating a technical problem for Sweden and Finland.

By using NATO mechanisms, Turkey has timely emphasized its own security interests.

  Sinan Urgen, a former Turkish diplomat and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Center for Europe in Brussels, believes, "Over the years, Turkey has made many demands, but these demands have not been resolved, and now Turkey believes that since Sweden is interested in By joining NATO, it can impose conditions on Sweden."

"Shuttle diplomacy" enhances influence

Turkey takes advantage of geographical advantages

  While Turkey values ​​its membership in NATO, it has established itself as an impartial mediator between Russia and Ukraine, culminating in Russia-Ukraine talks in late March.

It was during this negotiation that conflicting Russia and Ukraine came close to a peace deal.

On March 29, 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegations held face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey's largest city.

The picture shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan giving a welcome speech to both parties before the talks begin.

  In addition, Turkey has also demonstrated its diplomatic means on more occasions, including providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, implementing the Montreux Convention to close the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus to warships, and discussing the situation in Ukraine frequently with heads of state. The meeting condemned Russia's military action but actively avoided participating in Western sanctions against Russia.

  Qatar's Al Jazeera commented that the West expressed its appreciation and gratitude to Turkey for its mediator role because it was worried that the conflict would spread to Europe.

Turkey has benefited from it, enhancing its presence and establishing itself as a "nation committed to protecting the world from the threat of a third world war".

  Zhao Junjie pointed out that when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, especially after the escalation of the war, Turkey did not play the role of fanning the flames. ", reflecting its own influence and sense of presence, and successfully joined with Germany, France, and Israel to become the leader of shuttle diplomacy since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

  "Turkey's ability to play a role in the situation in Russia and Ukraine is also inseparable from its own strength and geographical advantages." Zhao Junjie analyzed that Turkey is located at the border of Eurasia and holds the "key" of the Black Sea Strait. The largest military force outside the United States is the real "big man" in NATO.

  "Turkey has a lot of leverage, and its weight in NATO determines that its interest demands cannot fail to attract the attention of Western powers led by the United States." Zhao Junjie emphasized.

Call for NATO reform

Turkey becomes a new variable in the game of great power

  The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has continued to this day, the peace talks have reached a deadlock, and NATO's desire to expand its capacity is clearly revealed. Will Turkey always oppose Finland and Sweden to join NATO?

What will be its next move?

FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

  The BBC quoted analysts as saying Erdogan was willing to negotiate and eventually agree to expand the NATO alliance.

  The analysis pointed out that Erdogan's stance is actually a signal of dissatisfaction, and there is "room for manoeuvre" on the issue.

Active diplomatic consultations between Turkey, NATO, Sweden and Finland can be expected ahead of the NATO summit at the end of June.

But if there is no resolution by June 30, then this will essentially be a crisis.

"It's not just a crisis between Sweden and Finland, it's a crisis between Turkey and NATO."

  "The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a problem that affects the whole body. The longer it lasts, the more uncertain factors will appear, and the greater the impact it may have on the international order." Zhao Junjie believes that Erdogan is a leader An "experienced" politician, Turkey, as a regional power, also has its own ambitions and ambitions, so it will definitely seize the opportunity to improve its international status.

  Erdogan emphasized that Turkey is an indispensable member of NATO and has made many contributions to NATO, and the relationship between the two should not be questioned.

Turkey stressed the importance of NATO, but at the same time, NATO must also implement reforms to deal with new security threats.

  The world is facing different challenges, risks and threats than ever before, and one of the most important foundations of this development is the adept use of the various sources of power in building a country's international standing.

Turkey is undoubtedly becoming a new and more uncertain variable in this great power game.

(Finish)