PSOE and PP are played in the elections of Andalusia the change of political cycle

• 19J The PP of Moreno is triggered by the stagnation of the PSOE and the braking of Vox

• CIS The PP would increase its distance from the PSOE and win more seats than the entire left together

The Andalusian elections on June 19 will serve to find out if the political change is consolidated in the most populous community in Spain, after the first legislature with the socialists in opposition, but also to measure the electoral temperature of the country and certify the change of cycle to which some demographic indicators point.

On the one hand, Pedro Sánchez hopes to stop his personal wear and tear and that of his government.

And he does so by personally getting involved and also by his

, with a last-minute distribution of investments for Andalusia, and deploying in campaign events to support Juan Espadas, the former mayor of

who was entrusted by Sánchez to definitively put an end to

and recover the lost hegemony.

At the moment, the forecasts are adverse, to the point that the PSOE is beginning to be satisfied with repeating the results of 2018, which were then the worst in the history of autonomy.

It would be worth it if the PP does not get a sufficient majority to govern alone and is forced, as in Castilla y León, to open the door of the Board to Vox.

Swords, on the other hand, can have little trust in the parties to his left, which seem determined to sabotage themselves, with Podemos, IU and Más País paddling together but at a different pace, while Teresa Rodríguez scratches votes and credibility from them.

The indecision of Yolanda Díaz, who supports the Por Andalucía coalition, but commits herself too much also contributes to that feeling of surrender.

For his part, Alberto Núñez Feijóo tests the drive of his leadership in the first electoral pulse that takes place after the traumatic change at the head of the PP.

The triumph of Juanma Moreno seems incontestable according to the polls.

As is the fact that he could be reinstated as president with the help of Vox.

But the objective of the popular candidate is precisely to preserve the power of the Board without having to cede any institutional quota to the populist right, due to the discredit that this would entail for the image of moderation that both the Andalusian PP as an alternative to Feijóo intend to represent.

The

do not want to repeat the model of

and yearn for a significant majority like that of Isabel Díaz Ayuso.

They believe that they can achieve it, moreover, with a strategy radically opposed to that of the president of the

Moreno is convinced that he has room to get new support in the center and on the center-left, after unraveling the guts of dozens of own and third-party polls that indicate that there is an important part of the socialist electorate (around 10%) that, not only has he normalized that there is a right-wing government on the Board, but he sees Moreno as a good manager without too much ideological fanfare.

The appeal to the useful vote has become a constant in Juanma Moreno's speech to ask for support in exchange for stability and institutional trust.

Ciudadanos, for their part, is at stake for the survival of the liberal project in Spain.

The polls do not grant him more than three deputies, but one last carom could save the party, if those two or three meager deputies become essential to reinforce the majority of the PP and renew their coalition pact.

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