Analysts were still counting two days ago on a status quo, despite calls from Westerners to open the floodgates further to curb the surge in prices which accelerated after the decision of the Twenty-Seven.

And all of them insist on the will of the 23-member cartel, led de facto by Ryad, to spare Russia and preserve the cohesion of the group.

“Until now, the market assumed” that OPEC + would stay on the same line, with a marginal increase in production volume of 432,000 barrels per day in July, “Russia included”, summarizes Carsten Fritsch, analyst for Commerzbank.

This strategy, which began in the spring of 2021, aims to gradually return to pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels, after the drastic cuts decided in the face of the collapse in demand linked to health restrictions and confinements around the world.

But an article from the Wall Street Journal has cast doubt.

According to the American daily, members of the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) are studying the possibility of excluding Russia from the agreement fixing production quotas.

Such a scenario would allow Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to tap into their spare capacity to partially compensate for the shortfall, and thus calm the market.

Russian oil exports Emmanuelle MICHEL AFP

Growing isolation

The debates of the thirteen members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and their ten partners led by Russia will begin with technical discussions at 12:00 GMT (2:00 p.m. in Vienna, the seat of the cartel), before the plenary meeting by videoconference.

Speculation is rife, with experts like PMV Energy's Stephen Brennock worrying that a temporary Russian ban would 'effectively end the deal' formed in 2016 to regulate the market .

Bjarne Schieldrop, of Seb, also evokes a possible "rupture of OPEC+" or at least, "a suspension of the quota system as long as Russia is shelved by the West".

Because the sanctions accumulate on the Kremlin.

EU leaders reached an agreement on Monday that should cut their imports of Russian oil by some 90% by the end of the year in order to cut off funding for Moscow's war in Ukraine.

The United Kingdom has pledged to stop imports by the end of the year, while the United States has imposed an embargo on Russian crude and gas.

"Russia has turned into a pariah", asserts the analyst who sees "in the apparent intensification of the diplomatic shuttle between the United States and Saudi Arabia" the sign "that a change may be close ".

Standstill signals

For now, however, the Saudis do not seem inclined to relieve the market.

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reiterated at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos that "the kingdom has done what it can", according to the business press.

"The situation is more complex than simply adding barrels to the market", he insisted, even as the members of the G7 pointed out last week the "key role" of OPEC + in the face of "tightening of international markets ".

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan, in Riyadh on June 1, 2022, for a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council Fayez Nureldine AFP

If the Gulf economies remain deaf to calls, it is also because they are reaping juicy profits from a barrel well above 100 dollars: Saudi Arabia thus recorded in the first quarter its strongest growth in ten years.

In this context, it is not sure that “reluctance towards a wide opening of the taps” will quickly dissipate, argues Susannah Streeter, at Hargreaves Lansdown.

And even if it wanted to, OPEC + could not replace all the lost volumes of Russia due to the difficulties of some of its members to reach their quotas, recalls the analyst.

© 2022 AFP