Russian analysts and traders said on Tuesday that Europe's gradual imposition of a ban on Russian oil instead of the immediate ban would give Moscow time to redirect its production to new customers in Asia in the next six months, Reuters reported.

The European Union said on Monday it aimed to cut Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of the year, but added that pipeline and sea supplies would continue legally until then.

Two-thirds of Russia's oil supplies to the European Union come via tankers and the last third via the Drugba pipeline.

Western analysts and European Union observers described the sanctions as lenient, and said there was a clear sense of relief in Moscow.

"Although the measures announced by the European Union are threatening, we do not expect them to have a strong impact on the Russian oil sector now or in 6 months. Russian oil producers have time to solve logistical problems and change their customer base," said analysts at Russia-based Sinara Investment Bank. .

They pointed out that Asia already buys more Russian oil than Europe, while at the end of 2021 the European Union accounted for 60% of Russian oil exports, about 3 million barrels per day out of a total of 5 million.

What does the sixth package of Western sanctions against Russia include?

 European Union leaders have reached a political agreement on the sixth package of sanctions imposed by the bloc's countries against Russia.

This package of sanctions, which was approved at the end of a two-day European summit in the capital, Brussels, on Russia includes:

  • European Union countries will cut 90% of Russia's oil imports by the end of the year, but will exempt pipeline crude from the ban.

  • The countries of the Union agreed to exclude Sberbank, the largest Russian bank, from the SWIFT system for international money transfers.

  • Sanctions ban 3 new Russian state-owned radio stations from broadcasting in EU countries.

  • European leaders endorsed the European Commission's 300 billion-euro ($321 billion) plan to replace Russian fossil fuels.


In this regard, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, on Tuesday, that the purpose of the European Union sanctions is to compel Russia to end its war on Ukraine and pay the consequences of its actions.

Schultz added, in a press conference, that the sanctions will contribute to forcing Russia to pay the consequences of its actions, stressing that these sanctions presented a clear image of European unity, and showed great solidarity with Ukraine.

Pointless penalties?

Meanwhile, an article published by the American website Modern Diplomacy considered that the Western sanctions that were imposed on Russia more than 8 years ago, did not negatively affect Russia and did not achieve positive results for those who imposed them, and Russia still exists, and adapts to it with great success.

The author of the article, Dr. Anna Kolotova, a specialist in international relations from Guilin University in China, explained that the West has imposed 10,128 sanctions against Russia since 2014 (the Crimea case) until today, which is more than any other country.

That was before the European Union took more sanctions on Tuesday.

For comparison, the writer cited figures on the number of sanctions imposed by the West on other countries of the world as follows:

  • 3161 Sanctions on Iran

  • 2608 vs Syria

  • And 2077 against North Korea.

She said that the sanctions affected almost every sector in Russia, from individuals, who numbered hundreds, to the fields of energy, economy and trade, and there was practically no single sector left that was not affected by them.

But Kolotova added that after the ban on the export of many different types of products, as well as the departure of many companies operating in various fields, the Russian government has introduced a number of measures to support different areas, which are already beginning to show positive results.


The writer pointed out that many sectors of the Russian economy showed positive dynamics.

He pointed out that if we compare the situation of many sectors during last March with what it was in the same period in 2021, we find that a growth has occurred in the mining industry by 7.8%, in energy and gas supplies by 1.5%, and in water supply and waste disposal. By 7.2%, and there is an increase in the food sector by 1.1%, and medical production by 46.8%.

The writer stated that the preliminary estimate of Russia's gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2022 showed a positive growth of 103.5 percent compared to the same period last year.

The British Economist magazine also indicated - according to the author - that with the decline in imports and the rise of exports, Russia achieved a record trade surplus of $250 billion (15% of last year's GDP), more than double the $120 billion recorded in 2021. .

However, the consequences of the sanctions were not only faced by Russia and Belarus, but were also affected by many other countries of the world, including those that had nothing to do with the issue, according to the writer, who referred to the complaint of some countries about the lack of food due to the sanctions, and to the refusal of Hungary, which is now One of the obstacles against European sanctions.

The writer quoted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban likening the impact of sanctions on the Hungarian economy with the impact of the atomic bomb on the country that was dropped on it.

The growth of Russian manufacturing activity

In the latest report to Reuters, a survey showed on Wednesday that Russian manufacturing activity grew in May after contracting for 3 months, and price pressures eased significantly, but sanctions still affected demand.

According to Reuters, the Standard & Poor's Global Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.8 points from 48.2 the previous month, exceeding the 50 point level separating growth from contraction for the first time since January.

But Standard & Poor's Global said that despite the rise in the core index, the actual output of manufacturing industries continued to decline in last May.

Companies exhausted workforce numbers further in May, but confidence improved to its highest level since February, as companies look to economic stability and higher demand in the coming months.