Will the partial embargo on Russian oil that the European Union has just decided following the invasion of Ukraine have real economic effects?

To get an idea, it is worth studying Russian oil exports in 2020… and their destinations.

Let us first recall that only flows by sea are initially targeted by this embargo (a compromise having been reached with Hungary to exempt oil transported by pipeline).

The ban currently affects two-thirds of all oil supplied by Russia to the EU.

But taking into account that Germany and Poland have pledged to turn off the tap on the Druzhba pipeline, 90% of Russian exports to the EU could be stopped by the end of the year.

Objective: "to cut off the enormous source of financing for the Russian war machine"

However, before the embargo, Russia provided 27% of the oil imported by the EU and received around 400 billion euros per year from its Member States.

The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said on Twitter that this agreement will “cut off a huge source of funding from the Russian war machine” and “put maximum pressure on Russia to end the war. ".

As this graph, based on the latest UN Comtrade data, illustrates, the economic impact of a halt to EU imports is significant, although China remains by far Russia's largest customer for the oil (33% of the exported value).

Taking into account only the countries appearing at the top of the list of main importers, more than 40% of the value of Russian exports would still be affected in the event of a total ban by the EU, a situation which should be approached. when Germany and Poland end pipeline imports.

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Ukraine-Russia conflict: Which European countries are most dependent on Russian gas?

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