He won only for the fourth time since World War II

Labor causes earthquake in Australian elections

  • An American aircraft carrier in the Pacific Ocean, where war could break out at any time.

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  • Albanese, after winning the elections, as his government faces problems on several fronts.

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  • Like most Australian prime ministers, Albanese comes to power without strong foreign policy experience.

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The election of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese marks only the fourth time since World War II that the Australian Labor Party has come to power, and is the 31st prime minister.

The three previous Labor leaders were Gough Whitlam in 1972, Bob Hawk in 1983 and Kevin Rudd in 2007.

Albanese's victory was different, and as the leader of the opposition during the coronavirus pandemic, he has fought for the hearts and minds of his people.

But his personal story, growing up with a single mother in a public home, has become inspiring for Australian opportunity and social movement.

Albanese offered a "safe change" from the ruling National Liberal coalition headed by former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and did not offer a speech with a high ceiling or a very optimistic vision.

And he was not as successful in putting forward a grand agenda for policy reform, as much as he succeeded in harnessing public frustration with Morrison's repeated political failures, especially with regard to his interaction with bushfires, and then the Corona pandemic, as his clumsy start to introduce a vaccine in Australia reinforced doubts about His tendency to prioritize glamorous advertisements over the substance of politics.

Problems on many fronts

But the new Labor prime minister may have a slowing economy.

There are problems on many fronts, including high interest rates, high inflation and stagnant wages.

History shows that most labor governments often worked to achieve power in times of economic decline.

For a country accustomed to a successful economy over the past three decades, a real record among developed countries, this financial vision based on undermining consumer confidence will continue.

Labor's share of the vote was 31.2% of the total vote, less than it got when it lost the previous election in 2019. This means that less than one in three Australian voters voted for change via Labour.

But others voted for change, too. They voted for Green Party candidates, and for independents.

The share of the two major parties in Australia continues to decline in the vote, as is the case in many developed countries such as Germany and France.

Like most Australian prime ministers, Albanese comes to power without strong foreign policy experience.

He did not boast of being close to China, as the former Labor leaders of Rudd, Hawke, or Whitlam had done.

But Albanese has the backing of a strong national security team, particularly Senator Penny Wong in foreign affairs.

The world will not wait

Albanese also knows that the world will not wait for him, as hostilities escalate in Ukraine, the possibility of war in Asia and the Pacific by political leaders in Washington, Tokyo, Taipei, and Beijing is increasing.

His first test came early last Tuesday, when he flew to Tokyo for a four-way meet.

He immediately demanded the formation of working relations with US President Joe Biden and others present at the meeting.

Labor's predicament

The new prime minister focused on his support to strengthen this four-way meeting, and that it presents an opportunity for Australia as well, and for others, to help influence the US-China strategic cooperation.

But the Australian capital, Canberra, as is the case with other allies, at least publicly hides its frustration with the content of the US economic strategy in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions, and therefore it will continue to press for an American economic thread in the region, in the form of US membership in the comprehensive agreement. and developed, for the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Since 2019, the Labor Party has been in a stalemate, as it wanted to emphasize its partnership with the Morrison government on foreign policy, especially the response to China's coercive economic policies, and its unwavering support for the alliance with the United States.

This consensus was put to the test during the election campaign when the Solomon Islands Prime Minister signed an agreement with China on formal security arrangements.

Labor was quick to respond by emphasizing Australia's strengthening of engagement with its Indian Ocean partners.

And Labor will show Washington that it can handle the burden of countering Chinese influence in the Pacific.

But Labor believes that a change of tone in dealing with China would restore some decency to the relationship with Beijing.

It is clear that the new Chinese ambassador to Australia, Qiao Qian, wants to overcome the grudges, but Canberra is still reluctant to carry the olive branch.

The important question for the new government is: How can the two countries regain credibility with each other?

A poll conducted by senior researcher, Elena Cloinson, at the Institute of Australian-China Relations showed that although 58% of Australians support a tougher stance on relations with China, 78% of them believe that the responsibility for improving relations lies with the two countries. .

Alliance to build nuclear submarines

The Workers' Party promises to develop diplomacy, strengthen the role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and benefit from how Southeast Asian countries, especially Indonesia, deal with China.

But without a quick change of the prevailing bureaucracy, Albanese will find himself surrounded by the same team that was dealing with Australia in the past.

But Al-Banisi is bound by many arrangements, especially the “Oaks” arrangement, an alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, to manufacture nuclear submarines, which has strengthened Australia’s power to confront a volatile world with its permanent cultural and political allies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom.

Given that the Labor Party will work to strengthen Australia's national security, it will not make any adjustments to these alliances.

If the past four or five years have been a challenge in Australia's defense and foreign policy in dealing with China, the coming years will be even more difficult.

Canberra knows that the Biden administration's commitment to resisting the new Cold War era's policy and intellectual environment will be bitterly tested.

And in the run-up to the election cycle, the Albanese government will need to engage with the United States, which could be led by former President Donald Trump, or another Trumpist like him.

This may come after a strongly contested presidential election, and may lead to more internal chaos in the United States.

Depend on the United States

But the undeniable fact is that despite these internal challenges, the Australian Labor Party, like its political predecessor, relied too much on the US to resist China.

And Morrison established a new agreement with Washington, to make Australia, along with Japan, the most loyal and closest ally of the United States in Asia.

Canberra has been more involved in US policy in Asia than at any time since World War II.

Accordingly, the Albanese government will endorse this position, even as it devises its own language to define Australia's role and place in the world.

But regardless of the outcome of the election, for the US-Australian alliance, as it was at the height of the Cold War in the 1960s, China is the Pacific link.

 James Karan is Professor of Modern History at the University of Sydney

Although 58% of Australians support a tougher stance in relations with China, 78% of them believe that the responsibility for improving relations lies with the two countries.

The new Labor prime minister has a sluggish economy and problems on many fronts, including high interest rates, high inflation and stagnant wages.

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