Cairo -

In a rare statement from the Ethiopian side about the repercussions of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt and Sudan, the dam's director, Kifle Horo, spoke of Egypt and Sudan's fears of the negative effects of the filling operations, whose third phase is expected to begin in weeks.

How does Cairo read these Ethiopian statements, with Addis Ababa asserting that "the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, are not affected by it."

The official authorities in Egypt remained silent despite the passage of 3 days since the Ethiopian statement, while the Sudanese Foreign Ministry described Horo’s statements as “irresponsible,” noting that it was surprising the Ethiopian official’s indifference to the potential damage on the Sudanese side, despite his acknowledgment of the possibility that both Sudan and Egypt were affected by the operation. The third filling, which indicates that Ethiopia wants to move forward with its previous unilateral positions.

The Ethiopian statements, regarding the filling and operation of the dam, come amid doubting Egyptian experts about the success of the two previous filling operations, as well as the dam facing a set of technical obstacles in its height and filling.

It also coincided with a speech by the commander of the Ethiopian Air Force, in which he said that his country's air force is on high alert to protect Ethiopia from any internal or external enemies, without explicitly addressing the Renaissance Dam or the threats it faces.

Addis Ababa recently started building concrete on the dam's body to raise the middle lane in preparation for the third filling process, after announcing the trial operation of the dam and the partial start of electricity production last February.

Experts and those concerned with the Ethiopian dam - in Egypt - agreed that Horo's statements are "provocative and irresponsible", and they stressed the existence of potential damage to Egypt - although it will not be directly affected by the third filling process - for considerations related to the weak Ethiopian capabilities.

On more than one occasion, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry accused Ethiopia of violating a new agreement of principles signed between the three countries in 2015, which prohibits any of them from taking unilateral measures in the use of the river's water.

Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, Dr.

Abbas Sharaki: There is a severe violation of the Declaration of Principles of the Renaissance Dam with all its clauses by #Ethiopia# Evening pic.twitter.com/iaHsP84PkF

- Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) May 28, 2022

Side effects

In a television interview last Friday, the director of the Renaissance Dam acknowledged the possibility that Egypt and Sudan would be affected by the filling operations, saying, “There may be side effects, we cannot deny this, but it is not real harm. These side effects are during filling periods, and other than that during operating times. What goes in (water) is what comes out.”

Ruling out stopping the third filling process as an automatic process, Horo clarified that "Ethiopia is implementing the project and filling it in stages to take into account the affairs of other countries (...) These are the guarantees that we have available to us," declaring at the same time that the second turbine will be trialled to produce electricity within weeks.

Stressing that the construction process of the Renaissance Dam will not stop for any reason, Horo said that the dam is impregnable and any talk about its dangers and the possibility of its collapse is incorrect.

Regarding the Egyptian-Sudanese concerns, Horo indicated that his country had exchanged information about the dam with the two countries, and their statements about the danger and effects of the dam “do not mean Ethiopia,” explaining that Ethiopia did not go beyond what was agreed upon in 2015 regarding filling operations.

In response to Horo’s statement that there was an agreement to fill within a period of time ranging from 5 to 7 years, the Egyptian newspaper, Al-Ahram, quoted a technical source familiar with the progress of the negotiations as saying that Egypt had not agreed to fill the Ethiopian dam in a specific number of years.

The source explained that the Egyptian proposal throughout the negotiation period confirms that the filling of the Renaissance Dam will be in “stages” and not during “a specific number of years”, and that each stage of filling depends on the existing hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile, whether there is (high flood, drought or extended drought). ;

Therefore, any talk about the number of years to fill the Renaissance Dam is incorrect.

Violation of the Agreement of Principles

Commenting on the sudden statements of the director of the Renaissance Dam, the expert in national security and international relations, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed, saw that it was expected this period, after it was clear during the previous weeks that there was an Ethiopian commitment not to make statements that raise concern in the region.

On the implications of the statement, Abdel Wahed stressed - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that it has special connotations that may be directed to the Ethiopian interior, but it remains directed abroad and there is no reason for it, according to him.

As for Cairo’s reading of the new Ethiopian position regarding the repercussions of building the dam, the security expert explained that his country does not welcome such a statement, which carries technical and professional errors, at a very sensitive time, even if it was directed at the Ethiopian interior.

Abdel Wahed considered that the Ethiopian behavior with his country is inconsistent with the rules of international law and international agreements governing international waterways and rivers, noting that Addis Ababa is acting unilaterally and violating the principles agreement it signed with Cairo and Khartoum in 2015.

In this regard, the security expert stressed that the speech of the CEO of the dam violates the terms of the Declaration of Principles Agreement signed by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in the following terms:

  •  In the first item, the statements destroy this item as it talks about cooperation on the basis of understanding, mutual benefit, goodwill and gains for all.

  • In the second item, which is related to cooperation in understanding the water needs of upstream and downstream countries in their various aspects, the Ethiopian side takes unilateral decisions.

  • There is a flagrant violation of the third clause, the principle of not causing significant harm, in complete contrast to the dam's CEO's statement that harm is possible.

  • The principle also addresses that the three countries will take appropriate measures to avoid causing damage during the uses of the Blue Nile, and in order for there to be interference, coordination and cooperation must be present, whether in the filling operations or the operation of the dam.

  • In the fourth item, an Ethiopian violation of what stipulates the principle of fair and equitable use of the Nile water, so that Ethiopia has no right to withhold water from Egypt without taking into account the damages caused to it.

  • As for the fifth item, related to the principle of cooperation in filling and managing the dam, there is a lack of cooperation on the Ethiopian side.

Possible damage

With regard to the possible repercussions on Egypt, as indicated by the director of the dam, the Egyptian security expert stressed that there is no doubt that there are damages, the first of which is related to the fact that the dam is a giant built on an international river that crosses the border, and its huge lake blocks water from Egypt, and this water is affected by evaporation, leakage and waste.

The second of these damages is represented - according to Abdel Wahed - in controlling the filling process and managing the dam individually without taking into account the conditions of Egypt and Sudan, especially during periods of drought, in addition to the negative effects on the environment and water, and other social influences such as spreading unemployment among farmers, but he ruled out direct damage to Egypt. Specifically during the third filling period.

Third Fill Effect

Describing Horo’s statements as “provocative and irresponsible, and tainted by lack of technical or political experience,” the Egyptian academic Abbas Sharaki, professor of water resources at Cairo University, indicated that it was the first to be expressive of “carrying out required engineering studies and ready to resume negotiations and present them to Egypt.” and Sudan to allay fears.

Technically, Sharaki questioned Ethiopia’s ability to achieve its goals in the third filling, explaining that the storage will be done by sequestering the first rainwater during next July, which is estimated at about 7 billion cubic meters at the Renaissance Dam, while the dam cannot pass more. From 1.5 billion cubic meters per month, it may increase to 3 billion if the second gate is opened.

He added that the operation of the (second) turbine is not effective at the present time, and therefore storage will be in next July, and it may extend to the first week of August, and in no way will it be from the water of next September, stressing that in all Cases Any amount of water that is stored is from the annual revenue of Egypt.

Referring to the Egyptian damage, he said that the Egyptian citizen may not feel harm from the repercussions of the dam because of government projects that cost billions of pounds, including lining canals, water desalination plants, and greenhouse projects;

And all this to reduce water poverty and maintain the water share reserve behind the High Dam, in the south of the country.