75% of the population holds Romanian passports
Will Moldova be Russia's next target after Ukraine?
Putin raises the West's fear of expanding its war to other countries.
Reuters
The war on Ukraine may not be Russia's last.
Reuters
Moldova does not have significant military advantages that it can offer to "NATO".
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine, in late February, raised great fears, fearing the expansion of the Russian attack to include other countries that were once part of the former Soviet Union, such as Moldova.
The Foreign Ministry in Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador, last month, and expressed "grave concern" about the statements of a senior military commander, who said that the Russian-speaking population in the country was being repressed, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of Moscow's intention to take over other countries.
Russian official news agencies quoted the deputy commander of the Central Military District forces of the Russian army, Rustam Minnikaev, as saying that full control of southern Ukraine would allow his country to reach Transnistria, a breakaway Russian-occupied region east of Moldova, which borders southwestern Ukraine: Is Will Moldova be the next destination for Russians after Ukraine?
symbolic significance
According to an analysis published by the American National Interest magazine, Dr. Ronald Linden, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh - where he held the position of Director of Russian and Eastern European Studies and Director of European Studies - the small country of Moldova in southeastern Europe, one of the poorest countries on the continent, has its importance Symbolism that transcends its size, in Europe, and beyond.
With its history, Linden says, Moldova has always been an indicator of Russia's power and, to many, a "mini-Ukraine", perhaps the next in line for its neighbour's fate.
In his analysis, Linden reviewed the history of Moldova since it was part of the Ottoman Empire until the 19th century, then it was divided over two centuries, and included back and forth between Russia and its opponents.
It ended up being part of the former Soviet Union.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Moldova's secession from it in 1991, the country faced internal secession. In the aftermath of a short war in 1992, the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria emerged, and 1500 Russian "peacekeepers" are stationed in the region, until today.
At first glance, Moldova appears as a "mini-Ukraine", expected to be the target of Russian President Vladimir Putin's next step in establishing his new empire.
Like Ukraine, Moldova never emerged as an independent country and for decades was part of the Soviet Union, and the central government in both countries does not, in effect, govern part of the country's territory.
In Transnistria (500,000 people) a third of the population is Russian, and about a quarter are Ukrainian, and Russian is the dominant administrative language there, and there is also the Moldovan-Romanian language in the Krylic alphabet.
active democracy
As with Ukraine, Moldova is seeking to join the European Union, and signed with Brussels in 2014 a “Deep and Comprehensive Trade Agreement,” the same for Ukraine.
Moldova applied for accession in the same year.
Like Ukraine, but with less fortunate economic conditions, Moldova is a working democracy.
According to Linden's analysis, it is precisely democratic success that worries Putin, who cannot claim ethnic affinity or "hegemony" in Moldova, as he does with the Ukrainians.
Also, Moldova has no borders with Russia, and it has a "reference" country which is Romania, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union.
About 75% of Moldova's population holds Romanian passports.
The economic influence of the West in Moldova, like Ukraine, has increased over the past decade, and the European Union is the country's largest trading partner, and largest investor.
Residents of Moldova, even from the breakaway region, can enter the EU without a visa.
neutrality
But the matter is different with NATO, there is less possibility of Moldova's ability to join the alliance, as the country's constitution provides for neutrality.
A poll before the Ukraine war revealed that only 20% of the country's population would prefer joining NATO, and Moldova does not have significant military advantages that it can offer to the alliance.
But for NATO and the West, disrupting Russia's plans on the territory of Moldova is very important.
The statements of the deputy commander of the Central Military District forces of the Russian army regarding Transnistria, aroused the interest of policy makers in the West.
Propaganda organizations have also described the president of Moldova as a Nazi.
These allegations remind us of what happened with the Donbass region in Ukraine.
justification for the intervention
These allegations, along with the unexplained bombings in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, would give Moscow a reason to intervene.
Militarily, Russia's control of Transnistria would be a major advantage for its forces in southern Ukraine.
A military threat to Moldova now seems unlikely, as the Russians face more than enough in Ukraine.
Nor has Moscow demonstrated a great ability to move large concentrations of forces across the country for an effective objective.
Nevertheless, Moldova remains a small and poor country, which can be affected by Russia's economic pressures, as the country obtains most of its energy needs from Russian gas through Gazprom, which goes, free of charge, to the Transnistria region, where the largest power plant in Moldova is located. The price of gas that Moldova receives is rising steadily.
Ramifications
The Ukraine war had repercussions on Moldova's efforts to find other sources, and remittances from workers abroad, which constitute about 16 percent of GDP, declined.
Moldova's economy is not expected to grow this year, according to World Bank forecasts.
As for the future, the existence of democratic and independent Moldova for 30 years is more symbolic than real.
Given Moldova's past, the country's heterogeneous makeup, poor economic legacy, and presence in a turbulent environment, the country's ability to survive appears to be a miracle.
In concluding the analysis, Linden points out that the future of Moldova will depend to a large extent on the forces surrounding it.
She is an example of what courage and imagination can do, if the world leaves her to do it alone.
• Moldova, thanks to its history, has always been an indicator of Russia's strength, and for many, it is a “mini-Ukraine” and may be the next to meet the fate of its neighbor.
• Like Ukraine, Moldova never emerged as an independent country, and for decades it was part of the Soviet Union, and the central government in both countries does not, in fact, govern part of the country's territory.
• Democratic success, in particular, is what frightens Putin the most, who cannot claim ethnic affinity or “hegemony” in Moldova, as he does with the Ukrainians. Nor does Moldova have a border with Russia.
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