The repercussions of the war on agriculture in Ukraine .. What is the world waiting for?

KIEV

- In addition to the news of the battlefields, the world is watching with great concern the repercussions of the Russian war on the cultivation of cereals in general, and wheat in particular, in Ukraine, apprehensive that food security will be jeopardized by shortages and high prices.

This is due to the fact that in 2021 Ukraine was the fifth exporter of wheat globally, and that many of the Ukrainian hot or tense regions are a major land for wheat cultivation, including the Kherson region in the south of the country, which was Ukraine’s “food basket” in the field of grain and others, and Russia took control of it in The first days of the war.

The main list of wheat cultivation operations also includes the Chernihiv and Kiev regions, which witnessed violent battles until late last March, and are witnessing demining operations to this day, in addition to the Kharkiv regions in the east, Odessa in the south and Zaporizhia in the southeast, where Ukrainians accuse the Russians of "stealing" 400 A thousand tons of wheat stock.

Expected decline in production and export

In sum, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy in Ukraine expected that the country's land production would decline by 30% this year, before the Prime Minister's office adjusted the rate of decline to 20% in mid-April.

The reasons for this - according to economic analyst Ihor Burakovsky - are the liberation of some areas, and measures taken by the government to encourage farmers and companies, by granting interest-free loans, and exempting export duties.

Another reason is that the European Union - the main importer of Ukrainian wheat and oils by 30% - exempts Ukrainian exporters from duties.

But this matter - according to Burakovsky - does not reassure global markets, explaining, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, that "Ukraine exported about 25.6 million tons of wheat in 2021, or 80% of a record production in a successful agricultural year, and this percentage has declined. to 30% or 50% in a year of war, a percentage that will not suffice the needs of countries.”

The markets affected the most here are in the countries of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia, which are the main importers of Ukrainian wheat.

Global food price hike

The decline in production is not the only reason for growing global concerns, but it is also followed by fears of high prices at record rates as well, in light of the losses caused by the closure of Ukrainian ports, and the difficulties facing shipping operations.

According to Oleg Nevsky, Vice President of the Kyiv School of Economics, the Russian blockade of the ports of the Azov and Black Seas, through which 90% of grain exports were exported annually and about 5-6 million tons of grain per month, is causing the country losses estimated at 170 million dollars per day.

He added in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the decline in production and the blockade of the ports "will lead to a rise in wheat prices globally to compensate for these losses, and pay the costs of alternative land routes through Poland, but it will not compensate for the volumes and feasibility of exporting through the ports, as well as they are under study, and are not excluded from the risks of bombing. Russian".

There is no escape from a global crisis

In a related context, experts believe that the world is facing an inevitable crisis of food shortages and high prices, and they cite numbers as well.

"Ukraine is the fifth in the world in grain exports, and in 2021 we exported 50 million tons, but the forecast for 2022 fell from 70 million tons to less than 35 million," said Mykola Horbachev, head of the Ukrainian Grain Exporters Association.

"The general rule is to import 30% of the grain to the European Union, 30% to North Africa, and 30% to Asia. These destinations will be affected by a decrease in quantity and an inevitably increase in price," he added.

In his opinion, "there is no escape from a global food crisis in light of the continuation of the war, and alternative land routes to ports, according to our estimates, and even if they were agreed upon, they would not allow the export of more than one million tons per month, that is, 6 times less than what was the case last year." .