China News Service, Beijing, May 25th: After the Asia trip, can Biden's "chess game" continue?

　　Author Zhang Mingxin

　　US President Biden's "debut" in Asian politics has ended.

　　In this trip to Asia, which is described as a "mini version" by the outside world, Biden's busy itinerary shows the United States' ambition to make another "chess game" in the Asia-Pacific region.

　　Several experts on international issues analyzed Chinanews.com. Although the Biden administration intends to carefully "layout" China in various fields such as politics, military, security, and economy, most of the measures lack specific content and coherence, and may be unsustainable.

Data map: US President Biden.

well laid out

　　Advocating for "decoupling" with China and reshaping the supply chain that excludes China, Biden's trip focused on promoting the containment of China in the economic field and reaffirming the influence of the United States in the region.

　　Biden's first trip to South Korea was the Samsung semiconductor factory.

He said South Korea and the United States needed to work to "keep our supply chains resilient, reliable and secure."

Agence France-Presse described Biden's speech as "intended to demonstrate the determination of the United States to lead Asia."

　　Although breaking the convention and visiting South Korea first, the highlight of Biden's visit is actually in Japan:

　　——U.S.-Japan summit meeting: launching the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework", deepening the U.S.-Japan alliance, promising to strengthen the "nuclear umbrella", declaring that it intends to support Japan's "regularization"...

　　——US-Japan-India-Australia "Quartet Security Dialogue": Announcing the Indo-Pacific Partnership on Territorial Sea Awareness (IPMDA), promoting innovation in key and emerging technologies, strengthening cooperation in regional security...

　　"The 'Indo-Pacific Economic Framework' is the main strategy of Biden's Asia trip," said Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the China Foreign Affairs University.

In essence, the United States wants to build an emerging market whose industrial chain and supply chain are separated from China.

　　Liu Weidong, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that this time Biden starts from the economic and ideological fields, and sets up a "chess game" in the Asia-Pacific region in an attempt to promote the comprehensive "decoupling" of countries in the region from China, and push China into the "chess game". in the trap of the new Cold War.

unsustainable

　　However, in the eyes of the outside world, after this careful layout, many measures proposed by the United States may face an unsustainable situation.

On May 24, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (1st from right) greeted US President Biden (2nd from right), Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (2nd from left) and Australian Prime Minister Albanis (1st from left) participated in the "Quartet of the United States, Japan, India and Australia". Security Dialogue" conference.

　　BBC analysis believes that the characteristics of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" are easy to cause criticism from the outside world - it may need to meet various requirements on taxation, labor security, and clean energy, but it is difficult to obtain benefits such as low tariffs and new markets.

　　The New York Times said that Biden's new partnership would eschew the market access provisions of traditional trade deals for fear of opposition from liberals at home, raising questions about its significance.

"Without a commitment to increase access to the U.S. market, it will be difficult to persuade Asian governments to change the rules in a way that could undermine their political economy," the report quoted experts as saying.

　　Liu Weidong believes that the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" will face many obstacles in the subsequent implementation process.

First, it is difficult to fully integrate with the existing economic framework in the Asia-Pacific region, and hasty advancement may damage the relationship between some countries and their major trading partner China, resulting in loss of interests.

　　Second, the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" currently only has "intent" and "framework", and it is relatively easy to advance.

But then countries are likely to diverge when specific issues need to be addressed.

In addition, the stability of the framework is also in doubt due to the change of leaders of various countries.

　　Liu Weidong also said that it is difficult to use economic bundling to achieve the ideological unity of various countries.

Regardless of whether they join the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" or not, the most important thing for relevant countries is their own interests, so they will not easily "choose sides" between China and the United States, let alone become "economic vassals" of the United States.

each with his own mind

　　Although South Korea declared its willingness to join the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" as an initial member state before Biden's visit, just a few days later, South Korea's foreign ministry stated that South Korea will maintain close ties with China in the process of formulating rules in the future communicate.

　　Spokesman Cui Yongshan stressed that many member states, including South Korea, "have an inseparable relationship with China in economic terms."

　　Japan also hides its own "small abacus" in the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework".

Zhou Yongsheng pointed out that Japan wants to take this opportunity to use the platform provided by the United States to contain China to a certain extent, so as to take the opportunity to become a "leading role" in East Asia.

On May 23, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held talks with visiting U.S. President Joe Biden at the State Guest House in Tokyo.

　　In the field of traditional security, although Biden promises to be "completely committed to maintaining Japan's defense", it is difficult to further give Japan a "sense of security".

Although the voices of Japan seeking "nuclear sharing" similar to NATO are getting louder, Zhou Yongsheng believes that it is very difficult for Japan to "share" the nuclear weapons of the United States.

　　For the United States, in addition to the so-called "return to the Asia-Pacific" appearance, domestic economic issues are Biden's core considerations during his time in South Korea and Japan.

With inflation rising further, the stock market tumbling and fears of a recession spreading at home, Biden is also eager to make it clear to the public at home that he is focused on stabilizing the economy and boosting jobs.

Especially before the US midterm elections, there are only 5 months left.

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