Could this be the sign of a future attachment to the occupier?

As the war in Ukraine entered its fourth month, new pro-Russian authorities in Ukraine's Kherson region announced on Monday (23 May) that the Russian currency, the rouble, would become the official currency of this part of southern Ukraine. Ukraine, parallel to the Ukrainian hryvnia. 

"The region is becoming a dual-currency zone: the ruble will circulate in the same way as the hryvnia. Companies and entrepreneurs can display prices in both currencies", announced the pro-Russian civil and military administration of this region. in a statement on his Telegram account. 

Having announced on Friday May 20 that it had taken full control of the port city of Mariupol, Russia has practically succeeded in asserting its authority over a corridor running from Donbass to the city of Kherson.

Despite this, "Russian forces have made only minimal gains in eastern Ukraine" in recent days, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) qualified on Monday. 

A map displaying the position of military forces in Ukraine, based on data from Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Map of Ukraine showing position of military forces in Ukraine as of May 24, 0700 GMT #AFPgraphics @AFP pic.twitter.com/yhlvBDuAOJ

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 24, 2022

If negotiations have been stalled between kyiv and Moscow since the end of April, these territories conquered by Russia could be at the center of their eventual recovery. 

"We have at least three possible ways out of the crisis, with regard to these territories", explains to France 24 Cyrille Bret, specialist in international relations at the Jacques-Delors Institute.

"The first would be the Crimea-type scenario with unilateral attachment by Russia; then a scenario on the model of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where the region would proclaim its independence and Russia would recognize it; or the reconquest of these areas by kyiv." 

Annexation, like Crimea in 2014 

Since the capture of the Kherson region, the first major Russian conquest on March 3, local and Russian officials have raised the possibility that the whole region will eventually become part of Russia.

A scenario that the adoption of the ruble in this region could confirm: at the end of April, a local official had already affirmed that the ruble and hryvnia could circulate during a transition period, before a complete transition to the Russian currency.

This possibility was not raised on Monday by the pro-Russian regional administration. 

"The pro-Russian authorities seem to have done exactly the same thing in the Donbass [which they have partly controlled since 2014, editor's note]", explains Michael Bociurkiw, researcher in international relations for the think tank Atlantic Council.

Although it is difficult to really know the situation on the ground, "the pro-Russian forces seem to be doing everything possible to eradicate any signs of belonging to Ukraine. And this includes currency, statues, flags or again the school program: once that is changed, it is very difficult to go back", continues the expert. 

Local workers replace Ukrainian road signs with strictly Russian ones, on May 5, 2022, at the edge of the port city of Mariupol, in a photo taken by pro-Russian authorities.

© Donetsk People's Republic Ministry of transport, AFP

Full annexation – as Russia did with Crimea in 2014 – could prove a risky bet internationally: it “would be followed by new sanctions against Moscow, and kyiv would not recognize this Russian extension towards the world. 'West, of course', according to Cyrille Bret. 

"I'm not sure that Russia really wants to annex the conquered territories", nuances Michael Bociurkiw.

“First of all, there has been enormous damage inflicted on infrastructure and industries. Then, in the 70% of the territory of Donbass which escaped the control of pro-Russian separatists before this war, citizens are increasingly pro -Ukrainians: there will be a very violent resistance to the Russians". 

Independence recognized by Moscow 

The currently occupied territories could also declare their unilateral independence, with Russia immediately recognizing the latter.

This option, similar to what happened for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, is the most plausible scenario according to specialists interviewed by France 24.  

Following the Russo-Georgian war of 2008, Russia recognized the independence of these two breakaway regions of Georgia and set up military bases there.

However, the Ossetian authorities seem to want to take a new step: on 13th May they announced the organization of a referendum on the integration of these territories into Russia. 

For Moscow, "the Ossetian option would be a way of keeping Ukraine in a weak position by dismantling part of its territory", abounds Cyrille Bret.

But there again, according to the expert, Russia would go it alone at the international level: the European Union, in particular, “cannot accept the creation of a State by arms: this is even contrary to its principles”. 

"In February, shortly before the war, Russia had already officially recognized the authority of the separatists over the Donbass: it will probably do the same for the other conquered territories", opines Andrew Wilson. 

If this hypothesis remains plausible, "it is not won in advance: Ukraine has already announced that it will not accept any concession of territory", he adds. 

kyiv victory and reconquest 

A territorial integrity dear to kyiv, of which "the Ukrainian military capacities must not be underestimated", notes Cyrille Bret, who evokes a third scenario: "The reconquest of these territories by kyiv is possible".  

"But for that, Ukraine should adopt an offensive position, while it is still on the defensive," nuance Andrew Wilson.

"The situation on the ground is very unstable and could change at any time."

Especially since "militarily, the Ukrainians are doing better and better, with more and more Western equipment, including drones", adds Michael Bociurkiw. 

Russia and Ukraine could have agreed earlier on "a special status for Donbass, but it is too late for that", according to Cyrille Bret.

"After what happened in Boutcha in particular, Ukraine is not ready to compromise with a nation it accuses of practicing 'genocide' or war crimes", he insists. 

A Russian soldier enters the base of the Ukrainian Azov regiment in Yuriivka, near Mariupol, in an area now under the control of pro-Russian forces, on May 18, 2022. © AP

"All or nothing": positions are becoming more radical

The "Western capitals - Paris, Berlin, and Rome in the lead - will surely increase the pressure in the coming days for the Ukrainians to resume negotiations with the Russians", explains Michael Bociurkiw.

"But Ukraine would not agree to ceding territory to Russia or any special neutral status, especially when the Russians are known to violate past agreements." 

According to Andrew Wilson, "there would only be a discussion on Donbass if kyiv got enough guarantees on its security and felt protected. But for now, Ukraine is talking about returning to the borders before February 24 , and will not accept a 'draw': it wants to take back all the occupied territories." 

"No diplomatic exit is possible for the moment, it's all or nothing", summarizes Michael Bociurkiw.

And Cyrille Bret to complete: "The negotiations are essential and they will have to happen soon, but for the moment neither side is ready for it. Wars tend to radicalize the positions of each." 

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