The "14th Five-Year" National Health Plan released population target measures and received attention
Read the population ledger of a big country
Our reporter Xue Peng
On May 20, the full text of the "14th Five-Year Plan for National Health" was announced, and the population-related target measures are very interesting: by 2025, the average life expectancy will continue to increase by about 1 year on the basis of 2020, and the average healthy life expectancy will be the same as that in 2020. Increase the proportion; by 2025, the urban and rural community standardized health management service rate for the elderly aged 65 and over will reach more than 65%; optimize fertility services and guarantees, implement the three-child birth policy, and improve related supporting measures, etc.
my country is the most populous country in the world, and the population issue has always been an overall and strategic issue.
Entering a new stage of development and realizing high-quality development, what new requirements are put forward on the number and structure of my country's population and labor force?
What are the characteristics of my country's population mobility?
What impact has the epidemic had on population growth and population mobility?
The reporter interviewed experts and scholars such as Yang Ge, an associate researcher of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Population growth slowed down, the national natural growth rate was 0.34‰, and the natural growth rate in some provinces turned from positive to negative
Since the beginning of this year, various provinces and municipalities have successively released the population data for 2021: the resident population of Beijing is 21.886 million, the resident population of Shanghai is 24.8943 million, and the resident population of Guangdong is 126.84 million... From the perspective of the overall scale, my country's 2021 annual The birth population was 10.62 million, the death population was 10.14 million, and the natural population growth rate was 0.34‰.
10.62 million births, down from 12 million in 2020 and 14.65 million in 2019.
Why does the number of births continue to decline?
"The decline in the birth population is the result of the combined influence of multiple factors." The relevant person in charge of the National Health and Medical Commission pointed out in response to the question about the continuous decline in the birth population in recent years. The high cost of fertility and parenting education aggravates fertility concerns.
First of all, from the perspective of population structure, the decline in the number of women of childbearing age is an important factor leading to the decline in the number of births.
The data shows that from 2016 to 2020, the average annual decrease of women aged 20-34 in the reproductive period is 3.4 million, and in 2021 compared with 2020, there is a decrease of 4.73 million.
Secondly, the current post-90s and post-00s, as the new main body of marriage and childbirth, many grow up and work in cities and towns, have longer years of education, and face greater pressure from employment competition.
"The average number of children of childbearing age women who intend to have children is 1.76 in the 2017 survey, 1.73 in the 2019 survey, and 1.64 in the 2021 survey." The relevant person in charge introduced.
In addition, due to multiple factors such as housing, education, employment, etc., the cost of childbirth, raising and educating children remains high, so young people become hesitant in the face of fertility issues.
It is worth noting that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has also had a certain impact on some people's marriage and childbirth arrangements.
"From a global perspective, the impact of the epidemic on the fertility rate is generally negative. The epidemic has brought uncertainty and risks, making some people choose to postpone or give up their fertility plans." Yang Ge told reporters.
From a local perspective, Guangdong Province has the largest number of births in the whole year, 1.1831 million, with a birth rate of 9.35‰; a death population of 611,200, a death rate of 4.83‰; a natural increase of 571,900, a natural growth rate of 4.52‰.
"One of the reasons for the high birth rate in economically developed areas such as Guangdong is the large influx of people, and the proportion of the inflowing young people is in the reproductive age group, so there are many births." Yang Ge analyzed.
At the same time, the natural population growth rate of many provinces has experienced negative growth, such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia.
In Jiangsu Province, an economically developed region, the natural population growth rate turned from positive to negative for the first time, at -1.12‰.
"Jiangsu is an economically developed area and has attracted a large number of population inflows. However, due to the historical reasons of Jiangsu's population policy, family planning is strictly implemented, and only children account for a large proportion, so the trend of negative growth cannot be changed." Yang Ge said.
"In fact, the process of human history development has proved that after industrialization and modernization, the process of fertility decline will basically occur. In developed regions such as Europe, due to the early industrialization, the fertility rate has dropped to a relatively stable state. For development For Chinese countries, such as China and India, the fertility rate is still in the process of gradual decline." Yang Ge said that from the trend, negative population growth is inevitable, the difference is that the different national conditions of each country determine the population growth. The rate of change from positive to negative and demographic changes.
Population mobility has increased significantly, the average number of years of education for new laborers has reached 13.8 years, and the structure of labor force quality has undergone major changes
In February this year, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics released the "2021 Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development", showing that the number of people separated from households in 2021 exceeded 500 million, reaching 504 million, of which 385 million were floating population.
Data from various provinces shows that the top five provinces in terms of population increment in 2021 are Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Fujian, with a net increase of 720,000, 600,000, 547,000, 281,000, and 260,000 resident populations respectively.
As an element of economic and social development, the floating population promotes the regional flow and reallocation of human capital, and also promotes the cross-regional flow of capital, information, technology and other elements. Mobile China has become the source of vitality for China's economy.
According to Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, the primary driving force behind population flow is the economic activity of the region.
Whether there is a good industry, high-quality employment opportunities, and whether it can bring good income are the main factors affecting the migration and flow of the population.
In addition, a suitable industry should also be livable, and factors such as medical care, education, and the quality of the living environment also affect people's choice of cities.
From the perspective of population migration and flow, my country's population flow is still active, and the effect of population agglomeration is further manifested.
From the perspective of flow, my country's population continues to agglomerate along the river, coastal areas and inland urban areas. The population of major urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has grown rapidly and the degree of agglomeration has increased.
"Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced the fastest economic development and profound changes in history. The large-scale flow of population and labor is one of the most important changes. The flow of population into economically developed areas is a notable feature." Yang Ge pointed out At the same time, because they are more susceptible to economic and other factors, the population migration rate of young people is higher than that of the elderly. Therefore, the population absorbed by economically developed provinces is mainly young people, and these people also contribute to the local fertility rate.
At the same time, the issue of net outflow of population is also worthy of attention.
According to the "2021 Harbin National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin" released a few days ago, the total registered population of Harbin by the end of 2021 is 9.432 million, and the city's permanent population at the end of the year is 9.885 million.
Compared with the seventh national census, the resident population of Harbin in 2021 will decrease by more than 100,000 people.
"The net outflow of population will have a certain negative impact on economic and social development. To reverse the situation of continuous population outflow, we must hope for high-quality development, create enough development industries, and use sufficient jobs to retain talents and young people. In addition, relevant policies and measures can also be introduced to increase the willingness of young people to have children." Yang Ge said.
From an economic point of view, labor is an important factor input for economic development.
It is worth noting that my country's labor resources are still relatively abundant.
Data from the seventh census shows that my country's working-age population aged 16 to 59 is 880 million. The labor force is still abundant and the demographic dividend continues to exist.
Not only that, the overall quality of the labor force is improving, including knowledge, culture and physical quality.
On May 17, the Ministry of Education disclosed at a press conference that the number of people receiving higher education in my country has reached 240 million, and the average number of years of education for new laborers has reached 13.8 years. Significant changes have taken place in the quality structure of the labor force, and the quality of the entire nation has been steadily improved.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country has entered a new stage of development, and major adjustments have been made in terms of development themes, development goals and development momentum.
In the new stage of development, my country should take the initiative to adjust the labor market, adhere to the policy of giving priority to employment, improve the allocation of labor factors to a higher level, and provide a strong and sustainable driving force for my country's high-quality development through the improvement of labor factors.
Improve supporting measures for active fertility, further improve my country's population structure, and maintain the advantage of human resource endowment
"Continue to ensure maternity insurance for insured female employees' maternity medical expenses, maternity allowances, etc., do a good job in guaranteeing maternity medical expenses for urban and rural residents' medical insurance insured, and reduce the burden of maternity medical expenses. Do a good job in maternity consulting and guidance services. Promote' One thing about birth is "jointly organized..." In the "14th Five-Year Plan" National Health Plan, the improvement of fertility and infant care services is an important content, and a series of measures focus on promoting the optimization of fertility services and guarantees, and promoting the healthy growth of infants and young children. .
The population issue is a major issue affecting the overall economic and social development.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, according to the changing trend of my country's population development, the Party Central Committee has made major decisions and deployments such as separate two-children and comprehensive two-children based on the situation, and achieved positive results.
On July 20, 2021, the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Optimizing the Birth Policy to Promote the Long-term Balanced Development of the Population" was released, proposing to optimize the birth policy, implement the policy that a couple can have three children, and implement active birth support measures.
This is another historic adjustment of my country's population and fertility policy, which is conducive to improving my country's population structure, maintaining the advantage of my country's human resource endowment, smoothing the downward trend of the total fertility rate, and consolidating the achievements of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.
At this year's "two sessions", the government work report proposed to improve the supporting measures for the three-child birth policy.
Hebei, Sichuan, Zhejiang and other provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities also clearly mentioned in their government work reports that they should improve or implement the "three-child" birth policy.
Shortly after the "two sessions", the family with children ushered in the news of tax reduction: the State Council issued the "Notice on the Establishment of Special Additional Deductions for Individual Income Tax for Infants and Young Children under the Age of 3", which included the care expenses of infants and young children under the age of 3 as a special additional deduction for individual income tax.
At the end of March, the personal income tax APP developed by the State Administration of Taxation officially launched the special additional deduction for infant care expenses. The guardians who have infants and young children under the age of 3 and pay individual tax at home can fill in the relevant information such as children, and they can pay their wages once in April. Sexual enjoyment deduction limit, reducing the burden of family rearing.
How high is the deduction amount?
The "Notice" clarifies that from January 1, 2022, taxpayers' expenses related to caring for infants and children under the age of 3 will be deducted at the standard rate of 1,000 yuan per infant and child per month before calculating and paying individual income tax.
"This is a benefit that benefits thousands of households and is widely welcomed by the masses." Yang Ge said that as one of the supporting measures to optimize the birth policy, increasing the pre-tax deduction for infant care expenses will help reduce the burden on families. support burden.
From the current point of view, the effect of the three-child birth policy is not obvious, but with the successive introduction of birth support and security measures, the effect of the policy will gradually appear.
From 2015 to 2020, the average life expectancy will increase from 76.34 years to 77.93 years, and implement a national strategy to actively respond to population aging
"In the past ten years, the social security network has been closely woven in all directions. The number of people participating in the basic old-age insurance has increased from 790 million to 1.03 billion, and the minimum standard of basic pensions for retirees and residents' basic pensions has steadily increased..." May 12 , The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission introduced that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, my country's public services have been universally and universally benefited, the social security network has been woven in all directions, and the level of social sharing has achieved historic progress.
Thanks to factors such as the densely woven social security net, and through hard work, the health of the Chinese people has been continuously improved.
From 2015 to 2020, the average life expectancy increased from 76.34 years to 77.93 years.
The "14th Five-Year Plan for National Health" pointed out that by 2025, the average life expectancy will continue to increase by about 1 year on the basis of 2020. It is expected that the average life expectancy will reach over 80 years old in 2035, and the average healthy life expectancy will gradually increase.
Aging is an important manifestation of the progress of human civilization, and it is also the basic national conditions of our country for a long period of time in the future.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, my country's population aged 60 and above will exceed 267 million, accounting for 18.9% of the national population.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's population aging will further deepen, and the proportion of the population aged 60 and above will exceed 20% of the total population, entering a moderately aging society.
"All countries have experienced or are experiencing aging. This is the law of human beings, and we can only deal with challenges." Zhai Zhenwu, president of the China Population Society and professor of the School of Social and Demographics at Renmin University of China, pointed out that the sign of an aging society refers to 60 The population over the age of 65 accounts for 10% of the total population, or the population over the age of 65 accounts for 7% of the total population.
It is undeniable that the aging of the population will have some adverse effects on my country's economic growth.
"The aging of the population will inevitably have an impact on social and economic development, reduce the supply of labor, increase the burden of family pensions, and at the same time bring certain pressure on basic public services and social public infrastructure renewal." Yang Ge said, but dialectical In terms of promoting the development of the silver-haired economy, expanding the consumption of elderly products and services, and promoting technological progress, new economic development opportunities will also be bred.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has attached great importance to the work of the elderly, and has carefully planned and coordinated to promote the development of the cause of the elderly.
From "actively responding to population aging" into the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, to the issuance of the "Medium and Long-Term Plan for Actively Responding to Population Aging"; from the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, it was clearly proposed to implement the national strategy to actively respond to population aging. Until the introduction of the "Opinions on Strengthening Work on Aging in the New Era"... my country has established the world's largest social security safety net for the elderly, the level of security has been continuously improved, and the elderly care business and industry are developing in concert.
At present, we are in a period of important strategic opportunities to vigorously promote the high-quality development of the cause of aging. We must improve social security and elderly care service systems, strengthen elderly health services, promote social participation of the elderly, accelerate the development of aging industries, and build an elderly-friendly society. Take measures to implement good policies carefully and focus on solving practical problems.