Global Food Security Expert Caitlin Welch:

Growing concerns about the impact of the Ukraine war on global food security

Caitlin Welch: In order to restore food security in Ukraine and around the world, the war must end.

archival

The Russian-Ukrainian war threatens global food security, especially in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, which depend heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat, oilseeds and fertilizers.

The world, already hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and facing a climate crisis, now finds itself facing another serious problem: food insecurity.

In this regard, Caitlin Welch, Director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, talks about the worrying consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in relation to the food crisis and the future way to deal with it, and global shocks to food security.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

• It does not seem that the Russian-Ukrainian war will end any time soon, and in the meantime it appears that global food security is being threatened globally.

Our question is what do we mean by food insecurity?

Food insecurity means not having access to a diet that provides an active and healthy life.

Accordingly, this does not mean the difficulty of accessing sufficient food only, but also the difficulty of obtaining food of high nutritional quality, which helps in physical and cognitive development.

There are multiple ways to improve food security;

Such as long-term agricultural development and short-term emergency humanitarian assistance, as we are seeing in the response to the Ukraine crisis today.

• There are growing concerns about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global food security, as many countries rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat and oilseeds.

How do you see this situation?

-- It is true that Russia and Ukraine produce large quantities of grain and oilseeds in the world, in addition to fertilizers. It should be noted that Russia and Ukraine together constitute a large part of the exports of these commodities worldwide.

We have to consider that wheat is the most important part of the diets in the MENA region.

There are 26 countries that depend on imports from Russia and Ukraine to meet at least 50% of their wheat imports.

Also, 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30% of their wheat imports.

Therefore, the countries most affected are those that import all their wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine.

• It seems that the situation may get worse in the Middle East and North Africa, what are the short and long term consequences of Ukraine's war on food security there?

The best-case scenario, of course, seems to be for the war to end quickly.

However, even if we assume, for the sake of argument, that the two sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire, the damage would take some time to repair.

There is a large part of the infrastructure that has been damaged;

There are a lot of fields damaged by tanks, damaged railways, ports and export facilities closed due to bombing, etc.

If the war ends now, two important things could happen in the agricultural cycle: One is that the current crop of grain in the ground now can be harvested in the summer, and the next crop of grain that will be planted in late summer can be put into the land for harvest in 2023. Then Exporting those grains to world markets, which as I mentioned is crucial for countries that depend on Ukrainian wheat.

• What is the worst scenario in your opinion?

The worst case scenario is the continuation of the war, and the destruction of more agricultural infrastructure, in which case very few people will participate in agricultural production because of the war.

We have not yet seen official reports estimating the size of the current crop that will not be harvested, but the danger is indeed imminent.

At the moment, in order to restore food security in Ukraine and around the world, the war must end.

Even if that happens tomorrow, it will take time for the agricultural sector to reform and address the current effects of the war on food security in Ukraine and the world.

• Food insecurity means not having access to a diet that provides an active and healthy life.

Accordingly, this does not mean the difficulty of accessing sufficient food only, but also the difficulty of obtaining food of high nutritional quality, which helps in physical and cognitive development.

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