On Friday, several news agencies reported that the last soldiers at the Mariupol steel plant have been advised to lay down their arms.

According to Russian data, there are a total of more than 2,000 soldiers who capitulated.

Many of them have been taken to Russian-controlled areas.

- If they are brought to justice in Russia and sentenced, then I see it as unlikely that they will get back to Ukraine in a very long time, says Hugo von Essen, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies.

Prisoner of exchange - a victory for the western world

Earlier this week, the fate of the Ukrainian soldiers was debated in the Russian lower house, the Duma.

Several parliamentarians then expressed that those who belong to the Azov Battalion and who have "fascist tattoos" should not be the subject of a prisoner exchange.

"It is clear that the exchange of a single one of these criminals will be declared a victory for Ukraine by the collective Western world," said Anatoly Wasserman, a lawyer in the Duma.

According to Hugo von Essen, prisoner exchange is a highly probable outcome.

- Then you will try to use it for the international or domestic audience and show that you are merciful and good to "the evil Nazis".

The Red Cross can be helpful

On Thursday, the Red Cross announced that it had registered "hundreds" of Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners of war and that several had been taken to Novoazovsk, just east of Mariupol.

- If the international world knows who these are, that they are in Russia, then I think it can give them some protection from the absolute worst outcomes, says Hugo von Essen.

The fate of the prisoners in Putin's hands

In the Duma, politicians have expressed that the Ukrainian soldiers in Russian hands do not deserve to live.

- To be sentenced to death I see as unlikely.

The two most likely options are jail or prisoner exchange.

What determines the fate of the soldiers is how Vladimir Putin wants to continue the war in Ukraine, says Hugo von Essen.

- If they are sentenced to long prison terms, it is an indication that he is willing to continue this war.

While if they are exchanged, it can be seen that the Russian side is willing to reach some form of diplomatic negotiation instead.