Beirut -
Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the question of presence and political identity arose among a large segment of the Sunni community in Lebanon, as if the fragments of the assassination of its most senior leader, as a pivotal point in its history, affected its sectarian entity, presence and pivotal role in the Lebanese system.
Although the father’s legacy passed to the leader of the “Future Movement” Saad Hariri, the question of existence and political identity remained hidden, and many note his exploits in mobilizing speeches at every maturity, from parliamentary elections, to assigning government heads, and the subsequent debates about the powers and role of governance, passing through All forms of appointments to the state and its institutions.
With Saad Hariri suspending his political and electoral work, another question was raised about the living and economic situation, in addition to the question about the nature of the political role, which was translated by the results of the poll, which resulted in many transformations on the representative scene of the Sunnis in Lebanon.
The year and numerical indications
On the occasion of the 15th of May, attention was drawn to the Sunni vote movement, as they are experiencing the first elections without the Future Movement and its leader.
Estimates fluctuated between a Sunni boycott of the elections, and the struggle to attract Sunni votes between the various allied and antagonistic poles, then the numbers and results were different.
In the Sunni-majority districts, which constituted a popular reservoir for the future, the voter turnout was relatively close compared to the general rate in Lebanon.
According to the Ministry of Interior, the vote in Beirut's second district was 41.72%, in the first north (Akkar) 49.72%, in the second north 40.18% and in the south first (Sidon - Jezzine) 49.03%.
These numbers indicate, according to the election expert Kamal Feghali, to Al Jazeera Net that the voter turnout did not reflect the atmosphere of the boycott, and was similar to most of the other constituencies.
He said that the elected representatives of the Sunni sect to fill the 27 seats allotted to it, were divided into 4 groups: about 10 MPs orbiting in the orbit of March 14, and 8 Sunni MPs from the allies of the March 8 forces, while about 9 MPs were divided between independents and two parties.
In the previous parliament, the Future Movement had 20 parliamentary seats, including one for the Greek Orthodox and two Maronite seats.
According to the International Information Center, the future seats were distributed as follows: 5 seats for those close to the future, 5 seats for the new change MPs, 3 seats for the Free Patriotic Movement, 3 seats for independents, two seats for the Islamic Group, and one seat for a deputy supported by former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.
The numbers indicate many transformations, including:
The absence of a single large dental mass.
The absence of Hariri's bloc was met by the entry of new Sunni faces for the first time into the parliamentary symposium.
The increase in the number of Sunni MPs affiliated with other sectarian blocs.
It is a test that reminds, according to analysts, of what Christians have been complaining about in the last two decades in terms of losing their representation by non-Christian blocs, unlike their representation now.
The Sunni seat in Beirut II, which belonged to Prime Minister Saad Hariri, went to the elected representative of the Forces for Change, Ibrahim Mneimneh.
The latter received the highest number of preferential votes in his district (13,281 votes).
Mneimneh embodies the model of the representative who is against Hezbollah and its allies, but against what Hariri established as the first leader of the sect, and seeks to present a different civil, political and economic approach, with other "change" and independent MPs who emerged from different orientations and ideologies.
An old election poster of Saad Hariri in Beirut (Reuters)
political dimensions
Analysts believe that the electoral choices of the Sunnis, their repercussions within the state and the balance of power between the political and sectarian poles will be tested.
The former leader of the Future Movement, Rashid Fayed, the political writer Khaldoun al-Sharif and the editor-in-chief of the newspaper, Salah Salam, are unanimously agreed that the reality and weight of the political representation of the Sunnis is not similar after May 15 to what was before.
And they link - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - these transformations with different connotations.
year outside feudalism
Rashid Fayed recalls that the history of representing the Sunnis in Lebanon was not feudal, and "they did not treat themselves as a religious sect as much as they are the people of the community and the nation."
In the past century, leaders of the government, such as Saeb Salam, Shafiq al-Wazzan, Salim al-Hoss and others, emerged in his jurisprudence.
When Rafik Hariri came in the late 1990s with his project, he attracted many, including Sunnis, in Lebanon, according to Fayed, and "embodied the image of the first Sunni leader, and since the moment of his assassination, his project no longer exists, although some of what Amariya accomplished is still in place."
Fayed said, "Saad Hariri did not complete his father's project, so he had the desire but not the plan."
Therefore, with Hariri suspending his political and electoral work, "it allowed the emergence of personalities for the first time, and other political figures who were marginalized in representation came forward, while others left the scene."
Fayed finds that it is too early to describe the nature of the Sunni representation in parliament, and "it is clear that the unilateral reference has been broken, especially since there are about 14 change deputies there are about 5 of the Sunni sect."
The former leader said that Hariri's popularity is present, but it is suspended and is not currently subject to any test, especially since his electoral withdrawal did not achieve impressive results regarding the extent of his ability to influence the general Sunni mood, which is fragmented by different trends outside the "future."
representational disorder
The first observation that can be recorded, according to Salah Salam, is the absence of the main Sunni poles from Parliament for the first time in 30 years, in return for the entry of new personalities and change movements.
Salam refuses to say that the Sunni sect has no political reference, as it "is present in the presence of the Mufti of the Republic, Abdel Latif Derian, who called on the Sunnis to vote massively, contrary to the popular bases' calls for the future."
And the reference is also, “is present in the activity of President Fouad Siniora, who moved with the support of electoral lists in Beirut, Tripoli and the Western Bekaa, and won with his allies a number of seats, although not all of them were Sunni.”
Salam said, "Bahaa Hariri also played the role of reference for the Sunnis, without achieving a breach at the level of seats, but his presence establishes a certain political movement that may grow later."
It is noteworthy that Hariri's political, regional and popular status has declined since the presidential settlement with the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah in 2016.
However, "the sect is experiencing great turmoil with the end of the club of former prime ministers, which means re-crystallizing its political role, and the worrying repercussions of this will be evident in the upcoming entitlements, particularly when a new prime minister is appointed," according to Salam, saying that he expects "a lack of balance in the national equation, As a result of the major imbalance in the nature of the disintegrated Sunni representation in Parliament.”
Absence of a single regulator
Khaldoun Al-Sharif believes that the election results have eliminated the traditional representation of the Sunni sect, led by the former heads of the Government Club in its four pillars.
As Mikati was not able to send a single Sunni MP, Siniora did not form a Sunni parliamentary bloc, and Hariri did not disrupt the Sunni influx to the polling stations in Beirut, Sidon, Bekaa, Akkar and Tripoli.
Al-Sharif believes that the election results are not a criterion for the year's good choices, because they are under trial, but a segment that voted for new models instead of the traditional ones, accused by some of being weak, complicit, or not listening to people.
Al-Sharif believes that the elections are a foundational station for Sunni voting.
Accordingly, "the Sunnis as a political component have lost their political reference, and their presence at any negotiating table will be difficult in the sense of a single opinion."
Al-Sharif states that any settlement without the Sunnis will not be right, "based on the experience of the tripartite agreement concluded in 1985 between the Shiites, the Druze and the Christians.
He points out that the political presence of Shiites is linked to Iran's influence and support.
Therefore, "the presence of the Sunnis, as well as the Christian and Druze components, needs regional or international leverage in order for Lebanon to balance sectarian and political."
Internally, "the diversity of Sunni representation is in the interest of the Lebanese because it represents tradition and businessmen, and the two changes, the right and the left without a single regulator."